After a profitable tournament in Indian Wells for his new match-bets column, Andy Schooler previews the first round of the latest Masters 1000 event, the Miami Open.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open matches
1.5pts Jenson Brooksby to beat Roman Safiullin at 20/21 (BetVictor)
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Christopher Eubanks v Reilly Opelka at 6/4 (Unibet, BetMGM)
1pt Pablo Martinez & Jaume Munar both to win at 1.89/1 (William Hill, 888sport)
Roman Safiullin v Jenson Brooksby
I was impressed by what I saw of Brooksby in Indian Wells and, less than three months in, his comeback looks to be going well.
He beat Benjamin Bonzi and, more notably, Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Californian desert before pushing eventual champion Jack Draper in two close sets.
With his excellent defensive game, Brooksby is difficult to hit off the court and the conditions in Miami will likely aid him on that front.
While the Laykold courts are faster and lower bouncing than those in Indian Wells, the balls tend to fluff up a lot here given the humidity (and therefore slow down), something which isn’t a factor in the dry desert air of Indian Wells.
Brooksby, who like so many Americans has tended to enjoyed his best results in his homeland, is a slight underdog here and I like his price.
Opponent Safiullin has won just four of 11 matches in 2025 and last week he was beaten by a wild card at the Phoenix Challenger.
Back the home hope at just shy of even money.
Christopher Eubanks v Reilly Opelka
Long-term readers will know I love a tie-break bet and one landed in last week’s first-round preview in Indian Wells.
With two big servers involved here, I’m keen on another in the first set of this clash.
The pair have met three times before and while Opelka has won them all in straight sets, four of those sets have gone to a breaker. In total, there have been only two breaks of serve across the six sets.
Given Opelka’s game, you can see why.
Slamming down serves with his 6ft 11in frame, the American has taken over John Isner’s serving mantle but, like Isner, his return game is feeble.
His 2025 stats show that. While his service games won percentage is up at 91, it’s just 9 for return games won.
While not in Opelka’s league (few are), Eubanks is also a pretty big server with a disappointing return game – his equivalent figures are 85-13.
That all points to service dominance to me and while odds of 6/4 won’t be for everyone, I’m happy to back a first-set tie-break.
Pedro Martinez v Luciano Darderi
Darderi has a 1-7 win-loss record in 2025 and I doubt a match on the Miami hardcourts is going to help his cause too much.
At tour level on this surface, Darderi has gone a woeful 2-17 – and one of those wins came against Dominic Thiem in Vienna last year, who was only there to retire, having slipped to 318th in the world rankings.
Admittedly, Martinez isn’t the ideal man to add to Darderi’s woes but I’m still surprised that 4/6 is offer about him doing so.
He beat Roberto Bautista Agut and Holger Rune on hardcourts en route to the last eight in Rotterdam last month, while he also reached the semis on the clay on Buenos Aries. In short, he’s been in decent form.
The pair have already met this season, at the Australian Open where Martinez led 6-3 4-1 when Darderi retired. I reckon he wins properly this time.
Arthur Rinderknech v Jaume Munar
Like Darderi, Rinderknech is another who has really struggled for wins so far this season.
He arrives in Miami having won only two of his 11 matches and neither of those victories came against a top-100 player.
His underlying data shows why he can’t claim notable wins. A decent server in the past, he’s won just 78% of his service games in 2025. And when you are breaking opponents only 9% of the time, that’s a big problem.
Munar, whose equivalent figures are 77-26, has surprisingly played a lot of hardcourt tennis this season, only contesting one claycourt event thus far.
He’s done well, too, making semi-finals in Hong Kong and Dallas, beating Ben Shelton at the latter event.
At the Australian Open, the Spaniard took Casper Ruud to five sets and while he lost in the first round in Indian Wells recently, a final-set tie-break defeat to Kei Nishikori was far from disastrous.
Munar at 8/11 is the bet here and I’ll happily double him up with his compatriot Martinez to form a 19/10 chance.
Posted at 2015 GMT on 18/03/25
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