After a profitable first round, Andy Schooler is back with his best bets for round two of the Mutua Madrid Open.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open matches
1pt Laslo Djere to beat Daniil Medvedev at 6/4 (General)
0.5pt Francisco Comesana to beat Arthur Fils at 13/4 (betway)
1pt Alex de Minaur to beat Lorenzo Sonego 2-0 at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt Nicolas Jarry to serve 10+ aces v Grigor Dimitrov at 13/8 (bet365)
Daniil Medvedev v Laslo Djere
Djere’s claycourt nous could pay dividends here.
He’s 18-7 at all levels in 2025, a period which includes an ATP title in Santiago – notably up at a similar altitude to Madrid – and a semi-final run in Buenos Aires.
Medvedev returned to the clay in Monte Carlo and while he posted victories over Karen Khachanov and Alexandre Muller, once the quality rose he was dismissed for the loss of just four games by Alex de Minaur.
The altitude here should help Medvedev but his Madrid record is still a disappointing 6-5 and I think he’s vulnerable here.
He’s won only 68% of service games on clay over the past 12 months and so Djere should get opportunities. For the record, the pair are 1-1 on clay.
Medvedev has the better return stats but his serve/break total figure of 103 is still two below that of Djere in claycourt tour-level matches over the past year.
Back the Serb at 6/4.
Francisco Comesana v Arthur Fils
Comesana landed us a winner in round one and I think he’s out at a big price here.
The Argentine has a decent serve which worked well in these altitude conditions against Pedro Martinez.
Of course, the class of opponent rises here but the market may be giving Fils too much respect.
Comesana has beaten Alex Zverev on this surface this season and seems to be relishing his opportunity to tackle the main tour having moved up from Challenger level.
North of 3/1 for the upset just seems a bit on the large side and a small bet is advised.
Alex de Minaur v Lorenzo Sonego
De Minaur has demolished a lot of opponents this season and he continues to improve on what was once clearly his weakest surface.
He’s spoken of late about how he now understands court craft wins the day on a claycourt, as opposed to power, and he’s been using his to great effect.
Sonego saw off Miomir Kecmanovic on Thursday, hitting plenty of winners, but De Minaur will get a lot more balls back and once into the rallies, I’d expect the Australian to enjoy greater success.
He’s won all three of the pair’s previous meetings, two of which have come in straight sets. Another 2-0 has real potential here too.
De Minaur has won 22 matches so far this season and, as already highlighted, he’s triumphed in many with ease.
Nineteen of them have been won in straight sets and I’m happy to back him to record another here at odds-against.
Grigor Dimitrov v Nicolas Jarry
Dimitrov’s last match was his 6-0 6-0 defeat to Alex de Minaur in Monte Carlo and I do wonder how much scar tissue has been left.
Yes, Jarry had actually lost to Dimitrov earlier in that tournament but the move up to a decent altitude in Madrid has to increase the Chilean’s chances.
He’s a proven performer in such conditions with four of his seven career ATP finals coming at venue at a significant altitude.
His strong first serve is a big weapon at this height, as he showed in his first-round victory over Daniel Altmaier when he won 21 of 22 points behind that shot. Unsurprisingly, he didn’t face a break point.
Jarry may have potential on the game handicap here but, sadly, no such markets were available at time of writing.
However, another bet which makes some appeal is back Jarry to serve 10+ aces at 13/8.
He managed 13 in a two-set defeat in Shanghai in 2023 and nine up in Geneva the same year in a match which lasted only 20 games.
The higher altitude here should make the ball fly through the air that bit quicker and it’s fair to say that Dimitrov, 34 next month, has looked a tad sluggish at times this year. If his reactions aren’t on here, that big first serve could be problematic.
Posted at 0930 BST on 25/04/25
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