Our tennis man Andy Schooler previews the last-16 action at the disrupted Mutua Madrid Open.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open matches
1pt over 18.5 aces in Jakub Mensik v Alexander Bublik at 4/5 (bet365)
Jakub Mensik v Alexander Bublik (Tue)
Like the rest of Spain, the Madrid Open descended into chaos on Monday due to the national power outage.
That means that last-16 day at the Caja Magica will actually only see half those matches take place – if indeed everything is OK on the electricity front.
Working on the assumption that it is, I’m looking at this match thinking aces.
These two possess two of the biggest first serves in the game right now and the 700m of altitude in play in Madrid should give those deliveries that extra bit of fizz.
I’m therefore looking at going over the total aces line which is set at 18.5.
The pair produced 46 aces over five sets at Wimbledon last year, while there were 15 in two in the slower conditions of Rotterdam earlier this season.
Bublik’s match with Andrey Rublev in the previous round saw 24 (12 apiece) as he played some impressive tennis.
He isn’t exactly Mr Consistent so he’s back as a considerable underdog here but that’s not to say he can't land the upset and there looks every chance this could go the distance.
Mensik managed 14 aces in his opening victory but only five against Ben Shelton last time out which is a bit of a concern.
However, Bublik is no great shakes on return and it’s not hard to see him getting frustrated and losing interest in some return games.
On a limited schedule, this is the bet I’m going to play.
Alexander Zverev v Francisco Cerundolo (Tue)
This was a potential match I was concerned about when tipping Alexander Zverev in the outright market.
The withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz means the German is now the favourite to lift the trophy here for the third time but he’ll first need to beat Francisco Cerundolo for the first time. He’s lost their previous two meetings, both on clay, and only just scraped through against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina the other day, eventually winning via a final-set tie-break.
On the same day, Cerundolo’s forehand looked in great shape as he saw off Francisco Comesana and he’ll doubtless look to take control of the rallies with the shot – Davidovich Fokina certainly had similar success against Zverev.
Having witnessed those two matches on Sunday, it’s tempting to oppose the top seed now but given that outright verdict, I’m finding it hard to change my mind.
The quicker conditions of Madrid should, in theory, help Zverev but one of his defeats to Cerundolo came here 12 months ago.
I know that his Argentine opponent will have his backers with Sky Bet offering a stand-out 7/4.
Posted at 0930 BST on 29/04/25
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