Andy Schooler landed 14/5 and 8/11 winners in the BNP Paribas Open semi-finals. Check out what he’s backing when Jack Draper plays Holger Rune in Sunday’s title match.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells final
1pt Holger Rune to beat Jack Draper at 6/4 (General)
Holger Rune v Jack Draper (21:00 GMT)
It’s been quite a ride for Jack Draper – and his backers – in Indian Wells and the Briton will now contest his first Masters 1000 final on Sunday.
We’ve certainly made a decent profit from his efforts, including a 14/5 success on Saturday, but now may be time to switch horses - well, Cheltenham has only just finished.
While Draper’s victory over Carlos Alcaraz inevitably grabbed the headlines on Saturday, particularly here in the UK, was it really the day’s best performance?
I’ve rarely seen Alcaraz plays as poorly as he did, his forehand completely going AWOL as shots were skewed into the tramlines and long on way too many occasions.
Despite this, Draper did his level best to let the Spaniard back into the contest – after winning the first set in convincing fashion 6-1, he duly lost the second 6-0 at which point he looked a broken man.
Credit is due to the way he managed to steel himself in the third, although again you have to wonder if Alcaraz’s level had been anything like normal whether the recovery would have been possible.
Regardless of the result the rollercoaster nature of the match was certainly a concern.
Earlier, Rune had produced a very strong display to upset Daniil Medvedev.
He really mixed things up to disrupt Medvedev, regularly turning to the slice to vary the pace, while he was quite happy to serve and volley at times – a tactic that had served Arthur Fils well in the previous round against the Russian.
Afterwards, Rune said: “It was a very specific tactical plan that I made with my coach yesterday evening and this morning. It’s about finding the right pace and which shots to hit, because so many players miss too many shots against Daniil. He makes you go for more, so I’m super proud that I managed to find the right rhythm.”
With his extra power, Draper represents a different challenge but it’s worth noting that the pair’s only previous meeting was won comfortably by the Dane, who triumphed 6-4 6-2 on the faster courts of Cincinnati last summer.
On that occasion, Draper failed to break the Rune serve but was broken three times himself. The Briton struggled on second serve, winning only 46% of points behind it, whereas Rune won 57% behind his second deal.
Of course, this is a different venue and seven months on, but it’s fair to say both men are playing better tennis than they were then – it’s not like Draper’s improvement has not been matched.
Another significant factor here could be nerves/pressure.
This is arguably the biggest match of Draper’s career, whereas Rune has played in three Masters 1000 finals before – and won one (Paris in 2022).
I suspect he’ll be the more relaxed coming into this contest and I’m a little surprised to see him as big as 6/4 to win it.
For me that’s a price worth backing and one which can hopefully end a profitable week on a high.
Posted at 1330 GMT on 16/03/25
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