After a profitable week in Turin, Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic as the pair meet on Sunday evening to decide who wins the ATP Finals.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals day eight
1.5pts tie-break in Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic at 5/6 (General)
1pt Djokovic 10+ aces at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic (1700 GMT)
So, we have a rematch of Tuesday night’s classic, three-hour encounter which saw the home-crowd favourite Sinner topple world number one Djokovic.
It was incredibly tight though – Sinner won 7-6 in the final set – and so it’s clear that a tweak or two could easily see the result reversed. And history is not on Sinner’s side.
On 19 previous occasions, the final of this tournament has been a rematch of a group-stage encounter and 11 times the loser of the initial contest has gone on to lift the trophy.
So, how will Djokovic go about reversing the midweek result?
Well, he’ll want to get a better read on the Sinner serve and create more opportunities on return – Djokovic broke only once on Tuesday and indeed the Italian has lost only two service games all week so far.
If he continues serving in that matter, that will be a tough task.
Once into the rallies, I suspect Djokovic will look to get his forehand into play more often.
Only 44% of his shots against Sinner in the group stage came from that wing (Sinner managed 53%) with Djokovic often locking in to some lengthy backhand cross-court exchanges.
He is often able to break down opponents that way but it didn’t work against Sinner. This looks an easier thing to change, although he will have to take the risk of going into the Sinner forehand more.
The best news for Djokovic is that he comes into this match after a superb display in his semi-final against Carlos Alcaraz last night.
I’d backed a close tussle between the world’s top two but it was one of those days when you don’t really mind getting things badly wrong as the product served up was simply awesome.
It was by far Djokovic’s best tennis of the week and frankly if he turns up in that form again, then you have to fear for Sinner, not matter how well he’s done so far this week.
Sinner has won all four matches, although he’s dropped a set in his last three, including against Daniil Medvedev in the semi-finals.
The combination of a strong serving performance and his hard-hit groundstrokes has proved devilishly difficult to deal with.
However, he now faces a new challenge – Sinner hasn’t played a match of this magnitude before, his previous biggest being this year’s Wimbledon semi-final – when he lost in straight sets to Djokovic. There are sure to be nerves.
The Davis Cup-style support he has received this week has undoubtedly helped his cause and he will need to draw on that.
Djokovic will, once again, be barracked, no question, although the Serb has made a point of taking on crowds in recent times and seems to simply use it as added motivation.
He’ll need to stay focused but, if he does, I cannot back against him here, despite what happened the other day.
Time and time again over the years we’ve seen Djokovic deliver his best tennis in the big matches. It’s what the greats do.
That happened last night and I expect it to happen again with 8/13 just about a backable price, although admittedly not a great one.
For something a bit bigger, I like the chance of A TIE-BREAK IN THE MATCH.
Sinner losing serve only twice in 11 sets is impressive (for the record, Djokovic has been broken six times in his 11).
In these quick conditions in Turin, there were only three breaks of serve in the duo’s group-stage match and two tie-breaks resulted.
The fact there were also 35 aces in three sets, Djokovic serving a career-high in a best-of-three-sets match of 20, helps show how tough it was for the returner.
Djokovic also played two tie-breaks against Holger Rune and one against Hubert Hurkacz, who served very well for most of their contest.
Backing a breaker at 5/6 looks a solid play.
In the other sub-markets, Sinner is 13/8 to serve the most obule faults, something he’s done in all four previous meetings with Djokovic (Tuesday’s match being his sole win).
However, given this was a bet we landed at odds of 10/3 the other day, it feels almost wrong to back it at the new price. Some undoubtedly will.
The other suggestion is to back DJOKOVIC TO SERVE 10+ ACES at a shade of odds-against.
Given the Serb sent down 20 the other day against the same opponent, odds-against looks tempting – the averages suggest it’s in with a great shout even if this match is decided in straight sets.
Published at 1018 GMT on 19/11/23
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