Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini at 70/1 (BetVictor)

1pt e.w. Alex Zverev at 11/1 (General)

0.5pt Ugo Humbert to win the first quarter at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Cincinnati Open

• Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)

The Cincinnati final between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz was arguably the match of last season but there won’t be a repeat in 2024.

In the wake of his gold medal triumph at the Olympics, Djokovic has withdrawn, meaning he will go into the US Open later this month without any warm-up matches on a hardcourt.

Alcaraz, however, is back.

He was the man who lost out to Djokovic in that gold medal match in Paris just over a week ago but the younger man seems happy to get back on the bike, so to speak.

The Spaniard is duly chalked up as the favourite but he’s not for me this week.

For one, he may well have to face Montreal finalist Alexei Popyrin in his first match but, more importantly, it’s been a brutal three months with Alcaraz making the finals of the three big events – Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the Olympics, winning two of them.

Fatigue has to be a concern for potential backers and I would not be at all surprised if Alcaraz is coming to Ohio knowing he needs to keep something in the tank for that US Open, which starts on August 26.

Cincinnati certainly isn’t a venue you want to play at if fatigue is an issue.

Conditions are often strength-sapping, as was shown in that classic final 12 months ago, when temperatures hit 35C.

It’s not forecast to get that hot this time around, although the mercury is set to top 30C with another issue – the humidity – expected to rise as the week goes on.

The heat helps create what have long been some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour and the addition of GreenSet courts in 2023 also sped things up.

It was with that in mind that I picked out Hubert Hurkacz at 66/1 last year and I’m not sure I’m over him losing in the semis from match point up!

Siding players with a big serve and an aggressive game again looks a sensible ploy here.

What I won’t be doing though is backing top seed Jannik Sinner.

Ahead of writing this, I re-read last year’s preview and found I wrote about Sinner that “his body hasn’t been the most reliable”.

Well, 12 months on and nothing’s changed on that front – the Italian was struggling with his hip problem again in Montreal the other day where he lost to Andrey Rublev.

Given that, I’m not sure why anyone would want to be on him this week at a top price of 11/4.

So, with the favourites swerved, it’s back to those who should enjoy the conditions and I can’t help but be tempted to get with MATTEO BERRETTINI.

OK, the Italian doesn’t have a good record in Cincinnati but he’s also lost a lot of tight matches against decent opponents.

Crucially, he arrives in fine form and with momentum having really built since his return to the tour after injury in March.

He’s 25-6 at all levels in 2024, a run which has taken in no fewer than three ATP titles (all on clay).

Berrettini also showed his propensity for quicker conditions when playing on the grass. During that swing, he made the final in Stuttgart and, having received a tough Wimbledon draw, he pushed Sinner hard in round two before losing in four tight sets. The three he lost all went to a tie-break.

He’s unbeaten since then and will be keen to keep on that winning run here to get in the groove for the US Open, an event at which he has done well in the past.

The draw is again tricky – such is life for those whose ranking has plummeted following injury – with seed Holger Rune first up and Alcaraz a potential last-16 foe.

However, Rune’s form remains poor, while I’ve already explained why Alcaraz might be vulnerable.

With Berrettini at a best price of 70/1 (and widely available at 66/1), I can’t resist taking a punt on a player who has played very well in recent months.

Some will be tempted to go in on Hurkacz again – conditions looked ideal for him last year – but the Pole’s movement wasn’t great in Montreal, despite his run to the quarter-finals.

He suffered a knee injury at Wimbledon and was found wanting on the low balls in Canada, where half-volleys proved particularly awkward.

It’s up to the top half next where I’m prepared to give ALEX ZVEREV another go.

His big serve should work well in Cincinnati – it has done in the past with the German the champion here in 2021 and a semi-finalist last year. He missed the 2022 event due to injury.

Across those tournaments, Zverev saw his serve broken only nine times in 10 matches and he held his own deal throughout four of them.

Zverev also looks to have landed in the weakest quarter with Grigor Dimitrov – another former champion – the next-highest seed in the section.

Admittedly, Seb Korda is also in here. He beat Zverev in Montreal on Sunday but that was a fairly close match and Zverev did, at times, produce some good tennis.

He will be better for his outing in Canada, having arrived there straight off the Paris clay, and should like the conditions here more.

I can back him at 11/1.

Finally, let’s take another quarter bet after last week’s 20/1 success with Popyrin in Montreal.

UGO HUMBERT has the right game to succeed here, albeit he’s yet to show it.

The Frenchman has a big left-handed serve and loves to come forward when given the opportunity.

We saw how Max Purcell used a lot of serve-and-volley tactics here when he made the quarter-finals last year and I can see Humbert enjoying some success on that front too.

He’s certainly played well in the faster conditions this season, winning ATP hardcourt titles in Marseille and Dubai earlier in the year.

More recently on the grass, he made the semi-finals in Den Bosch and the last 16 at Wimbledon where he had eventual champion Alcaraz rocking for a bit.

Admittedly, Humbert has an awkward opener against Jordan Thompson, a player who has performed well in recent weeks in North America, but if he wins that I think he could well make life difficult for Sinner should they meet in the last 16.

Others to consider in this quarter are the big-serving Taylor Fritz and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard but I’m going with Humbert to win the section at 25/1.

Posted at 1145 BST on 12/08/24

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