Tennis betting tips: Brisbane International & Bank of China Hong Kong Open

Tennis betting tips: Brisbane International & Bank of China Hong Kong Open

1pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane International at 11/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

0.5pt e.w. Alexei Popyrin in the Brisbane International at 33/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in the Brisbane International at 80/1 (General)

2pts win Andrey Rublev in the Bank of China Hong Kong Open at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Musetti in the Bank of China Hong Kong Open at 10/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Learner Tien in the Bank of China Hong Kong Open at 40/1 (bet365, Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Brisbane International

• Brisbane, Australia (outdoor hard)

2024 was a good year for this column with a 25/1 shot and four at 20/1 among the winners produced.

It all kicked off by successfully backing GRIGOR DIMITROV at this tournament and the Bulgarian is worth siding with again 12 months on.

Last year’s selection was based largely on his excellent record both in Brisbane and Australia as a whole.

That has only improved since with Brisbane being the only tournament in his career that he has won more than once – Dimitrov also triumphed here in 2017, the same year he made the semi-finals of the Australian Open.

The 33-year-old has also made several quarter-finals at Melbourne Park, plus the final in Sydney, and you only had to listen to him speak on Sunday to know how much he likes playing here.

Dimitrov, whose strong 2024 saw him finish in the top 10, said: “There’ve been so many years that I’ve started my year here. I like the conditions; I like the tournament. I like Australia overall, so I think that helps as well.

“The year rolls by so quickly, at times you kind of lose sight and track of everything. I’m trying to be very mindful and trying to remind myself how good of a vibe that I can have and recreate every single time I’m back here.”

The difference this year is that a certain Novak Djokovic is in the field having made the unusual (for him) decision to play an ATP Tour event prior to the Australian Open.

Most bookies have the former world number one odds-on – although Unibet and co do offer 6/4.

However, I’m not interested in such a price.

The reason Djokovic is playing here is that he didn’t play much in 2024 and when he did he was largely unsuccessful.

Yes, the Serb did achieve his major goal for the year – winning the Olympics – but that was his only title and he suffered some pretty shocking defeats. No-one really saw losses to Luca Nardi and Alejandro Tabilo coming.

He finished the year in Shanghai, opting out of the ATP Finals, so it’s been three months since Djokovic was on a match court, during which time he’s hired Andy Murray as a coach.

The 37-year-old has openly admitted the Slams are the tournaments he’s focused on these days and while I’m not saying he won’t be trying to win this week, I do feel it’s an event at which he may well be experimenting a little.

This isn’t a weak field either and there are threats in Djokovic’s path.

I’ve already mentioned Dimitrov – on the other side of the draw – but also in the top half are Nick Kyrgios and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, two huge servers who should go well in the conditions. The GreenSet courts in Brisbane usually play on the faster side of average.

The pair actually meet in round one in what will be Kyrgios’ first match for 18 months. It’s therefore hard to envisage the Australian being a serious title contender but it would be very Kyrgios were he to reach the final.

However, the one I want to take on Djokovic with is ALEXEI POPYRIN.

The home hope was one of our 20/1 winners last year – winning his quarter at the Canadian Masters – and was famously responsible for one of Djokovic’s shock losses in 2024, beating him at the US Open.

Popyrin also took sets off the Serb when they met at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

Sadly, Popyrin doesn’t have a track record of making fast starts to the season, although he did reach the quarter-finals in Adelaide as a qualifier two years ago at the start of the campaign.

Still, at 33s, I think there’s some value in his price.

Heading back to the bottom half, another Aussie, Jordan Thompson, looks a little big at 40/1.

After enjoying the best season of his career in 2024, Thompson arrives back in Brisbane – a former training base of his – at a career high of 26 in the rankings.

He does have good history of starting seasons well with a string of quarter-final appearances in his homeland, while 12 months ago he reached the semis here, beating Rafael Nadal en route.

He’s another who enjoys the quicker surfaces and I was very tempted by him but the problem is two-fold.

First, Thompson is in the same quarter as Dimitrov, who he trails 2-1 on the head-to-head, his only win coming back in 2019 in their first meeting.

Second, he’s up against Matteo Berrettini in his opening contest and that’s a tough draw. The Italian holds decent claims himself having ended 2024 well, helping Italy lift the Davis Cup. However, he doesn’t have the greatest record Down Under.

For a long shot in the bottom section, I’m turning to the third quarter where the seeds are Holger Rune and Tabilo – in short, it looks much weaker.

Rune did make the final here 12 months ago – his only final since May 2023 - but starts with an awkward clash against Jiri Lehecka.

Tabilo was a surprise January winner in Auckland in 2024 but he’s more of a clay man, so I feel ARTHUR RINDERKNECH could make waves at a big price.

The Frenchman’s big serve should work well in Brisbane and it’s notable that the only ATP final of his career thus far came in Adelaide at this time of year in 2022.

His best result on tour last season came in the quick conditions of Atlanta (SFs) and, with a decent-looking draw, I just feel he’s too big at 80/1 and worth a small bet.

Bank of China Hong Kong Open

• Causeway Bay, Hong Kong (outdoor hard)

As long-term readers will know, my default approach is to look for market value and that usually involves taking on the favourites.

However, I’m not sure that’s the way to go in Hong Kong this year where the winner could well come from the top four seeds.

The event only returned to the tour last season and was won by the favourite, ANDREY RUBLEV.

He’s back to defend his crown on Victoria Park’s GreenSet hardcourts – the same surface in use at the forthcoming Australian Open – and looks to hold strong claims.

Last year’s triumph was the third time in five years that Rublev had won in the opening week of an ATP Tour season (one of those was the ATP Cup team event with Russia) but that’s a terrific track record of a being a fast starter.

Pre-season has gone well this time around, too.

Rublev won all four singles matches (well, sets) he played at the World Tennis League in Abu Dhabi and while that may not be the most serious affair, he will have taken something out of wins over Nick Kyrgios and Stefanos Tsitsipas, the latter by a 6-1 scoreline.

He followed that up by playing the exhibition event in nearby Macau where two more victories were forthcoming, Rublev commenting about how happy he was with his serve across those Christmas matches.

In short, he looks well prepared for the serious stuff to start and should hit the ground running again.

The biggest threat to him in the top half looks to be fellow Russian, Karen Khachanov.

He’ll doubtless have his backers following a strong end to the 2024 campaign.

Khachanov won 12 of his 14 matches during the autumn indoor swing, capturing the title in Almaty, making the final in Vienna and the last four at the Paris Masters.

If he brings that form to the table here, he could be in business but Khachanov has a tougher draw and I’m not convinced he’ll survive his opener against either Kei Nishikori – a player who has often gone well during the opening week of the season – or Denis Shapovalov, another who showed signs of returning to his best in the second half of 2024, ending the season with a title in Belgrade.

On the other side of the draw, LORENZO MUSETTI looks a decent price at 10/1, one which is backable each-way in the hope that he can make the final.

With a first-round bye, the Italian will only need to win three matches to land the place bet and that looks doable.

First up will be Roberto Carballes Baena or a qualifier and then, if the seedings play out, Nuno Borges.

The biggest threat in the bottom half looks to be Arthur Fils, a player I rate highly but one I was also disappointed with at the pre-Christmas Next Gen ATP Finals, an event he started favourite for only to exit in the group stage.

Now, the timing of that event was far from ideal and may have played some part but it’s hard to be confident about Fils at no bigger than 6/1.

Musetti looks a better bet.

Admittedly it’s often feast or famine with the young Italian but he had many good weeks in 2024, making the Wimbledon semis, winning Olympic bronze and making the finals in Chengdu and Queen’s Club, showing he’s more than capable away from his natural domain, the clay.

Musetti exited at the second-round stage here 12 months ago but he started 2023 by helping Italy reach the United Cup final.

To me, 11/1 looks too big and worth backing.

For those who are intent on backing someone at a much bigger price, consider LEARNER TIEN.

He’s a player I’ve talked up in the past following great success on the second-tier Challenger Tour – he won three titles on it in 2024.

Tien’s subsequent ranking surge saw him qualify for those aforementioned Next Gen Finals and he took his chance, beating three top-50 players en route to the final.

The American left-hander has a strong return game and may be able to surprise a few more higher-ranked players this week.

He’s been drawn in the top half, opening against Cameron Norrie, a player who didn’t enjoy 2024 at all, before a possible meeting with Brandon Nakashima or Lorenzo Sonego. Then could come Khachanov.

It’s a tricky but I’m expecting some good things from Tien in 2025 and so let’s try to get with him while he’s still under the radar to some extent.

Updated at 1128 GMT on 29/12/24

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