Tennis betting tips: Best bets and analysis for ATP Finals

Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals

2pts Daniil Medvedev to win the ATP Finals at 9/2 (Betfred)

1pt Felix Auger-Aliassime to win the ATP Finals at 6/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

1pt Taylor Fritz to qualify for the semi-finals at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Nitto ATP Finals

• Turin, Italy (indoor hard)

The best players in the world – bar the injured Carlos Alcaraz – gather in Turin this week for the ATP Finals and the eight men involved can expect slick conditions at the Pala Alpitour.

While too much was made of the altitude last year – they are just over 200m up in the foothills of the Alps – there’s no doubt the Greenset Grand Prix surface and Dunlop balls provided some of the quickest courts of 2021 on the ATP Tour.

The format is two groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the semi-finals next weekend.

Without further ado, let’s move quickly on and assess each contender…

GREEN GROUP

Rafael Nadal

• Best odds: Title – 11/1; Win group – 12/5; Qualify for SFs – 8/11
• World ranking (at Nov 7): 2
• 2022 win-loss record: 38-6 (4 titles – French Open, Australian Open, Acapulco, Melbourne)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 7-1
• 2022 indoor record: 0-1 – L32 Paris
• Tournament record: 20-16 – SF 20, Gp 19, Gp 17, SF 15, RU 13, Gp 11, RU 10, Gp 09, SF 07, SF 06
• Recent form: L32 Paris
• Record v group opponents:

v Ruud – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-0
v Auger-Aliassime – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-0
v Fritz – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-1

When he’s been somewhere close to fully fit, Nadal has arguably been the world’s best player in 2022. He was excellent during the first half of the season, racking up a 7-1 record against top-10 opposition, but a series of different injuries have worn him down. He’s subsequently played just one match since the US Open and six since Wimbledon, none of which has been against a top-25 player. The draw has at least been kind – this is undoubtedly the weaker group – but this has never been Nadal’s time of year and famously the Spaniard is yet to win this event, one he’s long argued should be played on different surfaces. Nadal has played just one indoor match in two years and the chances of him being able to flick the switch back on certainly look more remote than his odds suggest.

Casper Ruud

• Best odds: Title – 16/1; Win group – 4/1; Qualify for SFs – 13/10
• World ranking: 4
• 2022 win-loss record: 48-20 (3 titles – Gstaad, Geneva, Buenos Aires)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 2-4
• 2022 indoor record: 4-3 – L16 Paris, L32 Basel (and 1-0 Laver Cup, 2-1 in Davis Cup)
• Tournament record: 2-2 – SF 21
• Recent form: L16 Paris, L32 Basel, L32 Tokyo, QF Seoul
• Record v group opponents:

v Nadal – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-1
v Auger-Aliassime – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-0
v Fritz – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-0

It’s actually only two months since the Norwegian was playing in the final of the US Open – his second Grand Slam title of the year – but you could be forgiven for thinking that was a lot longer ago. Ruud has done very little since and arrives in Turin on a run of four defeats in five. There looks every chance he’s feeling the effects of a long, hard season. Rather surprisingly, Ruud did make the semis of this event 12 months ago but he has little in terms of achievement indoors on his CV – he’s yet to make a final at tour level. Indeed, eight of his nine ATP titles – including all three in 2022 – have come on clay and conditions here are set to be quicker than ideal for the 23-year-old.

Felix Auger-Aliassime

• Best odds: Title – 6/1; Win group – 8/5; Qualify for SFs – 4/9
• World ranking: 6
• 2022 win-loss record: 56-25 (4 titles – Basel, Antwerp, Florence, Rotterdam)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 6-7
• 2022 indoor record: 27-5 – SF Paris, W Basel, W Antwerp, W Florence, L32 Astana, RU Marseille, W Rotterdam (and 1-1 at Laver Cup, 2-1 in Davis Cup)
• Tournament record: Debut
• Recent form: SF Paris, W Basel, W Antwerp, W Florence, L32 Astana
• Record v group opponents:

v Nadal – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-1
v Ruud – overall: 2-3 (1-2 tour level); indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-1
v Fritz – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-1

What to make of FAA? Well, he should be brimming with confidence after a recent run of three titles in as many weeks essentially booked his spot in this field. His 16-match winning streak was finally snapped in Paris but after a week off, he should be relishing his Turin opportunity where conditions should favour him. All four of the Canadian’s 2022 titles have come on indoor hardcourts, while he’s played a whopping 40% of his matches this season with a roof over his head. However, it’s not all good news. Clearly fatigue is a potential issue given his schedule over the past few weeks, while it’s certainly worth noting that only one of his recent 16 wins came against a top-20 opponent. Auger-Aliassime also has a losing record against all three group foes (he’s 0-3 against them this season) so anyone backing him now is certainly taking a risk.

Taylor Fritz

• Best odds: Title – 16/1; Win group – 7/2; Qualify for SFs – 5/4
• World ranking: 9
• 2022 win-loss record: 43-19 (3 titles – Tokyo, Eastbourne, Indian Wells)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 4-5
• 2022 indoor record: 6-5 – L32 Paris, L16 Vienna, QF Dallas (and 1-0 in Laver Cup, 2-2 in Davis Cup)
• Tournament record: Debut
• Recent form: L32 Paris, L16 Vienna, W Tokyo
• Record v group opponents:

v Nadal – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-1
v Ruud – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-0
v Auger-Aliassime – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-0

Fritz has enjoyed a fine season but he’s only here due to the withdrawal of world number one Carlos Alcaraz. He’s another whose indoor record isn’t pulling up any trees – he’s yet to win an ATP title in such conditions. Has won in Tokyo since the US Open but suffered early defeats in both Vienna and Paris once he headed indoors. Will hope his big serve can carry him a long way in slick conditions and given he’s landed in the easier group, that’s not beyond the realms of possibility. That said, it’s hard to make a strong case for him going all the way.

RED GROUP

Stefanos Tsitsipas

• Best odds: Title – 9/1; Win group – 9/2; Qualify for SFs – 5/4
• World ranking: 3
• 2022 win-loss record: 60-22 (2 titles – Mallorca, Monte Carlo)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 7-6
• 2022 indoor record: 17-7 – SF Paris, L16 Vienna, RU Stockholm, RU Astana, QF Marseille, RU Rotterdam (and 1-1 in Laver Cup)
• Tournament record: 5-4 – Gp 21, Gp 20, W 19
• Recent form: SF Paris, L16 Vienna, RU Stockholm, RU Astana
• Record v group opponents:

v Medvedev – overall: 3-7; indoor hard: 1-1; 2022: 1-1
v Rublev – overall: 6-5 (6-4 tour level); indoor hard: 3-3 (3-2 TL); 2022: 2-0
v Djokovic – overall: 2-9; indoor hard: 0-3; 2022: 0-3

Winner of this prestigious tournament in 2019 when it was held in London, Tsitsipas has played (and won) more matches this year than any other in the field. However, fatigue rarely seems to be an issue for the Greek, who has won plenty of matches during the current indoor swing, although no title has been forthcoming. Clearly wasn’t fit when playing in Turin 12 months ago and should fancy his chances of a much better showing this time around. The problem is his draw. Both Medvedev and Djokovic hold strong records against Tsitsipas and that has to be a concern for potential backers.

Daniil Medvedev

• Best odds: Title – 9/2; Win group – 11/4; Qualify for SFs – 8/13
• World ranking: 5
• 2022 win-loss record: 45-16 (2 titles – Vienna, Los Cabos)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 3-5
• 2022 indoor record: 8-3 – L32 Paris, W Vienna, SF Astana, L16 Metz
• Tournament record: 9-4 – RU 21, W 20, Gp 19
• Recent form: L32 Paris, W Vienna, SF Astana, L16 Metz
• Record v group opponents:

v Tsitsipas – overall: 7-3; indoor hard: 1-1; 2022: 1-1
v Rublev – overall: 5-1 (4-1 tour level); indoor hard: 2-0 (1-0 TL); 2022: 0-0
v Djokovic – overall: 4-7; indoor hard: 1-3; 2022: 0-1

We know Medvedev has the ability to win at this level – he was the champion in London in 2020 and made last year’s final when the event was played in Turin for the first time. As he showed 12 months ago, he enjoys slick conditions. But anyone backing him this week needs to realise he hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 10 since the Australian Open in January. He’ll need at least three such victories this week; probably four or five. The good news is there have been some encouraging recent signs. Medvedev was within a couple of points of beating Novak Djokovic in Astana, while he played some of his best tennis of the year to win the Vienna title. Whether that’s enough to warrant support as second favourite in this field is open to question.

Andrey Rublev

• Best odds: Title – 20/1; Win group – 11/1; Qualify for SFs – 11/5
• World ranking: 7
• 2022 win-loss record: 49-18 (4 titles – Gijon, Belgrade, Dubai, Marseille)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 3-3
• 2022 indoor record: 16-4 – L16 Paris, L16 Vienna, W Gijon, SF Astana, W Marseille, SF Rotterdam
• Tournament record: 2-4 – Gp 21, Gp 20
• Recent form: L16 Paris, L16 Vienna, W Gijon, SF Astana
• Record v group opponents:

v Tsitsipas – overall: 5-6 (4-6 tour level); indoor hard: 3-3 (2-3 TL); 2022: 0-2
v Medvedev – overall: 1-5 (1-4 TL); indoor hard: 0-2 (0-1 TL); 2022: 0-0
v Djokovic – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2022: 1-0

Holds a decent indoor record – two titles this year alone – but has struggled at this event in each of the past two years, failing to get out of the group stage. Against the true elite, you wonder if the belief is really there given the Russian is yet to win a title above 500 level on the ATP Tour. While Rublev has a serve which can do some damage, you’d also suspect he wouldn’t be choosing a court this quick if he had the choice.

Novak Djokovic

• Best odds: Title – 6/4; Win group – 4/5; Qualify for SFs – 2/7
• World ranking: 8
• 2022 win-loss record: 37-7 (4 titles – Wimbledon, Astana, Tel Aviv, Rome)
• 2022 win-loss v top 10: 6-3
• 2022 indoor record: 14-2 – RU Paris, W Astana, W Tel Aviv (and 1-1 at Laver Cup)
• Tournament record: 41-17 – SF 21, SF 20, Gp 19, RU 18, RU 16, W 15, W 14, W 13, W 12, Gp 11, SF 10, Gp 09, W 08, Gp 07
• Recent form: RU Paris, W Astana, W Tel Aviv
• Record v group opponents:

v Tsitsipas – overall: 9-2; indoor hard: 3-0; 2022: 3-0
v Medvedev – overall: 7-4; indoor hard: 3-1; 2022: 1-0
v Rublev – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 1-0; 2022: 0-1

Djokovic will be bidding to equal Roger Federer’s record of six ATP Finals titles over the next week and there’s lots to like about his chances of doing so. Famously, he’s not played a great deal in 2022, missing out on the Australian and North American swings due to his COVID vaccination status. But that should leave him fresher than all his rivals here and he’s looked full of verve in the last couple of months, winning titles indoors in Tel Aviv and Astana. Also made the Paris Masters final but a shock loss to Holger Rune reminded us he can be vulnerable at times. The Serb only made semis in Turin last year and you actually have to go back to 2015 (in London) to find the last time he won this tournament. Hard to argue he’s not the best indoor hardcourt player in the world but is no bigger than 6/4 for the title.

VERDICT

As is so often the case, Djokovic looks the right favourite here but I’m not sure 6/4 is a value price in a field of this quality.

He’s in the toughest of the two groups and while he can maybe afford one slip-up, given the format, it could also be fatal to his chances.

His recent defeat in Paris was a crack which will raise the hopes of his Turin rivals and I think there’s a big difference between him arriving here on the back of three successive titles as opposed to the reality of a shock loss.

I won’t be surprised if he wins to write yet another chapter in the history books but I’m instead going to side with two players – one in each group – who have played eye-catching tennis indoors over the past few weeks.

DANIIL MEDVEDEV should have conditions he loves here and he certainly wasn’t far away from winning in Turin 12 months ago.

• CLICK HERE to back Medvedev with Sky Bet

He looked good in both Astana, where he almost took down Djokovic, and Vienna so I’m prepared to forgive his defeat to Alex de Minaur in Paris – a match he really should have won having led by a break in the deciding set, and one which came just days after the Vienna final.

He holds strong records against Tsitsipas and Rublev so should be able to get out of the group and take his chance in the knockout stage.

I’m also ready to get with FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.

• CLICK HERE to back Auger-Aliassime with Sky Bet

He’s in the winning groove having played really well during the European indoor swing and his crunching serve should be a real weapon.

Admittedly, it’s something of a leap of faith given this is certainly a step up in quality but the young Canadian looks ready for the major breakthrough which has long been predicted.

It could happen this week.

Finally, I can’t resist opposing Nadal in the Green Group.

We’ve seen him disappoint on many occasions at this time of year and there remain serious doubts about his fitness. He’s played very little in recent months and expecting him to find a level to notch at least two wins against some of the best players in the world may be asking too much.

The layers make him odds-on to qualify for the semi-finals but that looks too short for me and TAYLOR FRITZ might be able to take advantage in these conditions.

There’s little expectation on his shoulders coming into this event and it looks something of a free-hit for the American. He’s beaten Nadal and Auger-Aliassime this season and has never met Ruud, and odds of 5/4 about him finishing in the top two look worth a small punt.

Published at 1345 GMT on 11/11/22

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