Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Qatar ExxonMobil Open & Rio Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1.5pts e.w. Alex de Minaur in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 8/1 (William Hill)

1pt e.w. Jack Draper in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

1pt e.w. Nicolas Jarry in the Rio Open at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Dusan Lajovic in the Rio Open at 60/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Qatar ExxonMobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

The ATP Tour begins a two-week stay in the Middle East this week with a top-quality field gathering in Doha.

The eight seeds all come from the world’s top 15, although there’s no Jannik Sinner any more – he’s begun the three-month ban which appears to split the followers of the sport in two.

While it’s pointless me going into that debate too much, needless to say that rather than quickly taking a polar opinion, it’s probably worth looking at the merits of both arguments – something people rarely seem to do in any walk of life these days.

Would a two-year ban really be appropriate when it’s been ruled the player had no intention of cheating? On the flip side, can the strict-liability rule simply be overlooked and no suspension imposed?

Anyway, Sinner’s enforced withdrawal leaves Carlos Alcaraz as top seed and worthy favourite – he won in Rotterdam just over a week ago.

However, he’s also got Novak Djokovic alongside him in the top half, the two-time champion here returning to action for the first time since injury forced him to quit his Australian Open semi-final a few weeks ago.

Djokovic had appeared to have played himself into some decent form in Melbourne but it’s impossible to know how his body is heading to Doha.

What we do know is that Djokovic’s best tennis hasn’t been seen an awful lot in the past 14 months, while he’s also got a potentially tricky opener in the form of Matteo Berrettini.

To be honest, the Italian might have fancied himself more in quicker conditions – the Plexicushion hardcourts here are usually pretty slow, especially during the cooler night matches of which there are plenty.

As usual, I’m not massively keen on backing the shorter prices – Alcaraz is just 8/5 and Djokovic 7/2 – but I will consider JACK DRAPER to spring an upset in this section.

The Briton battled well in Melbourne but some lengthy matches eventually took their toll on what’s always been a fragile body and Draper ended up quitting his last-16 encounter with Alcaraz.

Again, the worry is how well has he recovered but anyone backing Draper always knows that’s something of a risk.

We’re back to best-of-three sets now, which is good for the Londoner, and opening rounds against Alexei Popyrin (0-3 so far in 2025) and (probably) Christopher O’Connell look very welcoming.

Djokovic could follow and then Alcaraz, who Draper beat at Queen’s Club last year.

Yes, it’s potentially a tough route, but Draper has weapons in his game to trouble the best – think serve and forehand – and I’m tempted to have a small bet at 14/1.

However, my main pick in Doha will be ALEX DE MINAUR.

Having risen to a new career high of sixth in the ATP rankings, De Minaur heads up the bottom half of the draw and I’m not convinced by any of his fellow seeds in this section.

Daniil Medvedev’s serve continues to be a shadow of what it once was, while it was worrying that he was out-rallied from the back of the court during Saturday’s pretty heavy defeat to our 40/1 pick Hamad Medjedovic in the Marseille semi-finals.

I don’t see the sluggish conditions helping him either, although he did win here in 2023.

Meanwhile, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas continue to scratch around for form.

Both took wild cards for European indoor tournaments in recent weeks but it didn’t really work – Rublev lost to Aleksandar Kovacevic in Montpellier, while Tsitsipas was beaten by Mattia Bellucci in Rotterdam.

De Minaur’s form is much better. He made the final in Rotterdam, losing to Alcaraz, following on from a run to the quarter-finals of his home Grand Slam where he also lost to the eventual champion, Sinner.

A slow hardcourt looks ideal for one of the great defenders on tour and there’s little doubt that a player who turns 26 this week has also added more aggression to his game in the past 12 months.

He’ll open against Roman Safiullin before facing either wild card Abdullah Shelbayh or Botic van de Zandschulp.

Rublev could follow and then Medvedev (or Tsitsipas), although it would not be a surprise to find a lower-ranked player in De Minaur’s path come those stages.

For me, that’s a good route to the final.

I wouldn’t expect De Minaur to beat Alcaraz were they to face off again but at 15/2, the Aussie can be backed each-way and that will be my approach.

I also considered backing Karen Khachanov, who has played well here in the past, winning last season and making the semis in 2022.

I think he could well cause Medvedev problems in round one, although he does trail their series 5-2.

He was also well beaten by Medjedovic in Marseille last week so I’m going to tread with caution and swerve the 40/1 on this occasion, although he’s certainly one to consider if you are after a big price.

Rio Open

• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor clay)

I’ve never been but if there’s one tournament worth considering for a ‘bucket list’ trip, it surely has to be this one.

A raucous atmosphere is assured at the Jockey Club Brasileiro which sits next to the racecourse on the shore of the Lagoa Rodrigo de Freitas, the 2016 Olympic rowing venue, and close to the famous Copacabana and Ipanema beaches.

It screams sit back and soak it in.

There’s been plenty of talk about the South American Golden Swing – which began last week in Buenos Aires – having to move to hardcourts in a bid to attract better fields, but for now this event remains on its traditional clay.

That means the field is almost identical to the one which competed in Buenos Aires where, at time of writing, Joao Fonseca and Francisco Cerundolo are due to contest the final.

Having both been drawn in the second quarter, the pair could meet in the last eight this week.

Either could return to the final but going back-to-back in this swing is hard given the physical demands of the slow courts – they play most matches here in the late afternoon/evening so it’s usually very sluggish, like Buenos Aires.

This is also new territory for teenager Fonseca, who I realise will have his backers again at 8/1, although it’s worth pointing out he faced match points against our 40/1 pick Mariano Navone last week so really walked the tightrope.

The top half does look the tougher one to me.

It’s led by Alex Zverev, who was beaten in the last eight by Cerundolo in Buenos Aires. There’s greater motivation this week – this is a 500-level event – but I’m not convinced Zverev is fully invested in this period of the season and odds of 7/4 look poor value.

In this section, I prefer to take a chance on NICOLAS JARRY.

OK, he lost in round one last week but it was an emotional bearpit against the retiring Diego Schwartzman, so the defeat can be forgiven.

Jarry has twice been to the semi-finals here and he gave Carlos Alcaraz one hell of a battle here two years ago.

The Chilean has the serve which can win him a few cheap points, even on this surface, and I’d certainly give him more than a puncher’s chance against Zverev were they to meet in the quarter-finals - Jarry has won two of their five claycourt matches.

Jarry gave eventual champion Jannik Sinner a decent test at the Australian Open, forcing two tie-breaks in a straight-sets loss, while he also made the quarter-finals in Brisbane, so that Schwartzman defeat is hardly symptomatic of terrible form.

He’s played in three ATP finals during this Golden Swing over the years and another is a possibility at 16/1.

Down in the bottom half, I think it’s worth looking at some longer prices.

We backed Lorenzo Musetti in Buenos Aires last week but he withdrew ahead of his scheduled quarter-final due to a calf injury.

That’s not a good sign heading into a tournament packed with claycourt talent and the man the bookies expect to make the final looks worth swerving on this occasion.

Jaime Munar (rib) is another in this section who was injured last week. Several others lost early, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has to make the dash from the hardcourts of Delray Beach where he was due to play the final on Sunday afternoon. Not ideal.

Last year’s champion Sebastian Baez may go well again, although he was among those to disappoint last week, losing to Thiago Seyboth Wild.

The Brazilian victor is tempting on home soil this week – he seemed to be playing well in Buenos Aries before running into Laslo Djere in the quarter-finals. He’s due to face the injured pair Munar and Musetti in rounds one and two.

I also thought about siding with Mariano Navone again.

I felt a tad aggrieved by his defeat to Fonseca – he held two match points on the Brazilian’s serve at 5-3 in the decider of their quarter-final but missed both and then failed to serve the match out.

Still, he justified the faith put in him, outperforming the odds.

What’s a little off-putting this week is a likely meeting with Baez in the second round.

That would be a repeat of last year’s final in which Navone won only three games.

So, instead I’m going to take a punt on DUSAN LAJOVIC, who looks overpriced at 60/1.

The Serb has made the quarter-finals here in each of the last two seasons, losing to Alcaraz in 2023 and Cerundolo last year. No disgrace there.

This time around he finds himself in that Musetti quarter, opening against Damir Dzumhur, a player who has certainly seen better days.

If won, next up would be either Davidovich Fokina or Pedro Martinez, a player in decent form after a quarter-final run in Rotterdam and semi-final appearance in Buenos Aires.

However, Lajovic holds a 3-0 head-to-head record against the Spaniard, who also now has a lot of tennis in his legs over the past fortnight.

All in all, I think that’s a decent route to the last eight and from there, who knows?

Lajovic has made three ATP finals on clay, winning two, and he boasts career wins over Novak Djokovic, Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev on clay.

Some will also say the ‘seen better days’ label applies to him but it’s worth pointing out that Lajovic was a semi-finalist in Barcelona last season, another 500-level event.

Those odds don’t appear to be giving him the respect he deserves and Lajovic is worth an each-way punt.

Posted at 1830 GMT on 16/02/25

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