Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews including Plava Laguna Croatia Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

0.5pt e.w. Matteo Arnaldi in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

0.5pt e.w. Fabio Fognini in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open at 33/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Roberto Carballes Baena in the Generali Open at 22/1 (bet365)

1pt e.w. Aleksandar Vukic in the Atlanta Open at 28/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Reilly Opelka in the Atlanta Open at 28/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Plava Laguna Croatia Open

• Umag, Croatia (outdoor clay)

You can usually get a handle on an ATP tournament in some form or other but I’m really not sure what we can expect this week in Umag.

Approximately half the field are also entered in the Olympic Games tennis event but that starts on Saturday – the same day as the final here.

That immediately throws up the question of whether those players really want to go all the way in Umag. If they make the final – scheduled for Saturday evening - they’ll have a late-night dash to Paris to play less than 24 hours later. That seems a crazy schedule.

There’s also the difference in conditions.

Matches in Umag don’t start until around 6.30pm due to the heat of the day but even then it’s still strength-sapping – an excessive heat warning has been issued for this week with temperatures as high as 33C during the day but, more importantly, not expected to get below 25C.

In short, I’m very much of the opinion that this is far from the ideal way to prepare for the Olympics and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the seeds leaving early, either with half-hearted on-court displays or supposed injury niggles off it.

Of course, some of those entered in both events may prioritise this tournament and that’s a potential angle.

Take eighth seed MATTEO ARNALDI.

Realistically, he has little chance of a medal in the high-quality Paris field whereas there’s a proper chance he can build on a decent season and make his first ATP final in Umag.

Arnaldi reached the quarter-finals in Barcelona back in April, beating Sebastian Baez along the way, while he also made it to the last 16 of the French Open where seeds Arthur Fils and Andrey Rublev were among his victims.

In addition, Arnaldi will return to this venue with happy memories – he made the semis here 12 months ago, beating top seed Jiri Lehecka and only losing to eventual champion Alexei Popyrin.

As an Italian, he’s virtually playing at home – more on that shortly – so all things considered 18/1 may be worth a small play.

Admittedly, some will be put off by Arnaldi’s Olympic entry and it’s certainly hard to tell what the attitude of the bigger names here will be.

Therefore, the best betting strategy arguably looks to be to take a punt on some long shots.

Notably, this tournament has a long track record of players doing well having come out of the qualifying draw.

Andrey Rublev – top seed this year but wildly out of form – won here in 2017 as a lucky loser, while two years alter Attila Balazs finished runner-up as a qualifier.

There have also been a slew of qualifiers to have made the last four, so I very much will look at who come through the qualifying draw, which is due to be completed on Sunday night.

I will look to update this preview as and when.

The other history factor worth taking into account is the strong showings of Italian players here over the years, not surprising given their nation is less than an hour’s drive away.

Arnaldi and Lorenzo Sonego both made the semis here 12 months ago, while Jannik Sinner was victorious in 2022, when three of the four semi-finalists were Italian.

I was slightly tempted by Sonego, who is one of the players not entered in Paris, but the fact is he’s reached July without winning back-to-back matches on the main tour in 2024, so it’s hard to be enthused by odds of 18/1.

Instead, I think circumstances mean it might be worth taking a chance on former champion FABIO FOGNINI.

Umag has long been popular with the players for its party reputation and that suits Fognini’s character.

As well as his 2016 title here, he’s been to another final and two semis.

He’s one of those not going to the Olympics so should be giving his all this week and he’ll arrive in decent shape having reached the quarter-finals in Gstaad where it took top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat him.

That followed a Wimbledon campaign which saw him upset top-10 star Casper Ruud.

Arguably in his best form of the season and returning to a venue where he’s delivered in the past, Fognini is worth a few beans at 33/1.

Generali Open

• Kitzbuhel, Austria (outdoor clay)

Much of what I’ve written about Umag applies to Kitzbuhel too.

There are 10 players here due to compete at the Olympics – six of whom have been drawn in the bottom half – so you have to wonder whether they really want to be playing in Saturday’s final before the dash to Paris for a Sunday opener. If I hadn’t already made it clear, the first round of the Olympic singles is being held over next Saturday and Sunday.

The different conditions element also still stands, although this time it’s due to Kitzbuhel’s altitude – they’ll play around 800m above sea level in the Austrian Alps so the balls will ‘fly’ a lot, which won’t be the case when players arrive in Paris. Ball control will be key this week, not so next.

The top six seeds are all due to play here and in Paris.

They include defending champion Sebastian Baez, who heads up the field – a player whose poor record against the elite was highlighted in last week’s profitable column. He duly lost to another top-50 player when facing our 20/1 each-way winner Arthur Fils in the semi-finals.

The highest-ranked player in the opposite half is Alejandro Tabilo but Chile have a proud record in the Olympics – Nicolas Massu famously won gold in Athens in 2004 – and I’m sure Tabilo will have one eye on Paris. In addition, he could face Matteo Berrettini in his first match.

Berrettini, who isn’t entered in the Olympics, holds obvious claims this week, especially given he’s already tuned into the altitude having won the title across the border in Gstaad, Switzerland, on Sunday.

However, the bookies are wised up – the Italian is favourite with most and no bigger than 11/2.

He may well win but being confident about him going back-to-back having spent so much time in the past couple of seasons out injured seems folly.

The way things have gone since his latest comeback suggests he could have a big part to play during the North American hardcourt season and I’m not sure he’ll be pushing himself to the limit this week.

The highest seed who isn’t in the OIympic field is ROBERTO CARBALLES BAENA, a player we backed last week in Bastad.

He was going well, too, and led his quarter-final 5-2 in the final set before a massive collapse saw him lose five straight games. Frustrating doesn’t come close.

Still, he backed up some good decent form and I like his chances again this week, given he’s a proven performer at altitude.

All three of his ATP final appearances have come significantly above sea level – victories in both Quito and Marrakech, where he also finished runner-up earlier this season.

A poor record against potential quarter-final foe Baez is a bit off-putting but I’m very much against the Argentine this week.

His form hasn’t been great, he’s got the altitude move to adjust to (having played Hamburg lasty week) and you have to question his decision to play here with Paris also looming.

In short, I’m prepared to give Carballes Baena another go at 22/1.

Atlanta Open

• Atlanta, USA (outdoor hard)

No-one’s interested in the Olympics in Atlanta this week where they will play a normal Sunday final.

Instead, those gathered here have already begun to turn their thoughts towards the final Grand Slam tournament of the season, the US Open, which begins in five weeks’ time.

This is the first of a swing of hardcourt events leading into the big one in New York where, you’d imagine, those who compete at the Olympics will be disadvantaged.

A packed calendar has already brought the French Open and Wimbledon close together. A return to clay for the Olympics, which ends just three weeks before the US Open begins, is not an ideal schedule for the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.

Perhaps Ben Shelton, the top seed in Atlanta, can emerge from the pack to challenge for a major prize but if he wants to do that, he’ll need to start producing some better form than he’s managed so far in 2024.

He did manage to claim the title in Houston but that clay success has been his only final so far this season with his big serve failing to deliver the results many expected.

The serve has been a key shot in Atlanta down the years.

A look through the roll of honour shows having a big serve has been a key factor in becoming champion.

In the 11 editions since moving to its current Atlantic Station base, the tournament has been won by a big server on nine occasions. John Isner won here six times, while Taylor Fritz, Nick Kyrgios and Andy Roddick complete that list.

The ‘odd one out’ is Alex de Minaur, twice the champion, once in a week when he served so well he didn’t face a single break point.

This is tennis played in hot conditions (although thunderstorms are also forecast this week) and on a speedy surface so I will make my picks accordingly.

Shelton does fit the profile but, as touched upon, he’s not in the sort of form which warrants me backing him at 7/2.

A man I mentioned last week, Brandon Nakashima, could well challenge.

He was runner-up here in 2021 and has been serving well - he lost his own deal just once in the three matches he played at Wimbledon.

But again the problem is the price – last week he flopped as the favourite in Newport and this week we’re getting only 8/1. It’s too short for me.

Nakashima is in the bottom half, along with the woefully out-of-sorts Adrian Mannarino, the second seed who can certainly be taken on.

There are two I like in this section, namely Lloyd Harris and ALEKSANDAR VUKIC – the capitals tell you I’m siding with the latter.

Both men have that big-serve quality but I feel Vukic is the better bet.

First, form is good, that first shot serving the Australian well during the recent grasscourt season.

He made the quarter-finals in Den Bosch and Newport and the semis in Eastbourne. Karen Khachanov and Alexander Bublik were notable scalps taken, while Vukic only lost to the aforementioned Fritz in two tie-breaks.

Second, he performed well here last season, beating three seeds en route to the final where Fritz proved too good in a final set.

Third, Vukic looks to have a decent draw, opening against a qualifier before facing Mannarino, who has now lost 12 of his last 13 matches.

Harris could follow in the quarter-finals – I’d be gutted if Vukic were to lose that – but with the Aussie a bigger price than the South African, I’m siding with him at what looks a tasty 28/1.

Up in the top half, let’s take a punt on REILLY OPELKA.

I was close to tipping him up last week when he made his comeback from long-term injury but I was worried about him being able to back up wins given his lack of matchplay.

Such fears proved unfounded as he surged through to the semi-finals in Newport only for his serve to desert him in a bizarre semi-final loss which saw him win only two games.

Perhaps that was partly down to accumulation of matches but if you are prepared to put that down as a one-off – and a player with Opelka’s serve won’t suffer such a hammering many times in their career – then we saw enough for the American during the rest of the week to suggest he could contend here.

He served 62 aces during his three wins with his first-serve points totals never dipping below 87%.

The conditions here should make him very difficult to break and Opelka is a two-time semi-finalist in Atlanta.

His draw doesn’t look the toughest and so I’m prepared to go with a small-stakes punt on the home hope at 28s.

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