Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews including Hamburg Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts win Francisco Cerundolo in the Hamburg Open at 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

1pt e.w. Arthur Fils in the Hamburg Open at 20/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Roberto Carballes Baena in the Nordea Open at 25/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Cristian Garin in the Nordea Open at 50/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Pedro Cachin in the EFG Swiss Open at 70/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the EFG Swiss Open at 100/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Hamburg Open

• Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

The Wimbledon champion will be on media duties at the All England Club on Monday but in his head, thoughts will have already turned to the next challenge – the Olympic Games.

The battle for gold begins in less than two weeks’ time and so it’s no surprise to see plenty of big names breaking the norm and taking to the court the week after a major.

After spending the last few weeks on grass, getting the feel for the clay again will be the aim this week and tuning up for what lies ahead at Roland Garros, home of the French Open which will be used again for Paris 2024.

Hamburg will be seen as a good place to warm up for the Olympics - Alex Zverev certainly thinks so with the world number four the top seed. It’s a 500-level event on the tour so it’s also managed to attract a decent-strength field, although there are still plenty of players who have opted not to play so soon after Wimbledon.

Zverev is chalked up as favourite but it’s less than a week since he was clearly hindered by a knee injury during his Wimbledon defeat to Taylor Fritz, a match he led by two sets to love.

He may be the defending champion here but why anyone would want to back him at 15/8 without knowing truly how his fitness is, I’ve no idea.

In the top half of the draw, I prefer the chances of FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO at more than four times the price.

The Argentine is a natural on this surface so shouldn’t take long to find his feet. Even if he does, Cerundolo has been drawn in what looks a pretty weak quarter, opening against wild card Henri Squire, then facing Soonwoo Kwon or another wild card, Max Marterer, and potentially meeting fellow seed Matteo Arnaldi in the last eight.

Cerundolo was a semi-finalist here two years ago and was certainly playing well when last seen on the clay – he pushed Novak Djokovic to a fifth set in the last 16 of the French Open, where he also beat Tommy Paul.

Notably, Cerundolo also beat Zverev during the spring clay campaign, winning 6-3 6-4 in Madrid, so he won’t fear a potential semi-final clash with the German.

Let’s back the Argentinian at 8/1.

In the bottom half, I’m happy to oppose Holger Rune, who is still struggling to find his best tennis.

There have been some encouraging signs – he made the last 16 at both the French Open and Wimbledon – but he’s been found wanting against better opposition.

Perhaps the fact that this isn’t the strongest 500 field you’ll see will help him but a price of 4/1 isn’t worth chancing, in my opinion.

I’ll also pass on Sebsatian Baez, who has managed to win titles on this surface, although not at this level. He’s struggled against the better players and holds a disappointing 10-17 win-loss record against the top 50 on clay.

That brings me to the next-highest seed, ARTHUR FILS.

He was a player I highlighted as one to watch at the start of the season but, frankly, he’s not lived up to my (and many others’) expectations.

However, things look like they have begun to turn.

Alex de Minaur was beaten in Barcelona, en route to the quarter-finals, while a return to the Challenger Tour, arguably to boost confidence, worked a treat with a claycourt event in Bordeaux won.

And, having moved onto the grass, Fils beat the much-fancied Hubert Hurkacz at Wimbledon en route to the last 16.

I therefore think you may see Fils continue that improvement this week.

He likes the clay, as he showed here 12 months ago when reaching the semi-finals. He’s also won a title on this surface – in Lyon last season.

The draw is tricky – Jaume Munar won’t be easy first up – but at 20/1, I’m prepared to take a chance on the talented young Frenchman, who will desperately be wanting to arrive in Paris in top form.

Nordea Open

• Bastad, Sweden (outdoor clay)

Arguably most eyes this week will be on Bastad where two of the world’s top 10, plus a certain Rafael Nadal, will tune up for the Olympics.

The Swedish event has often won player awards for is treatment of them, so it’s good that it is being rewarded by a stronger-than-usual field.

Andrey Rublev is he top seed and Nadal may well produce an improved showing having spent the entire grass season practising on clay in Mallorca, but it’s former champion Casper Ruud, who is the favourite.

The Norwegian looks the most likely winner to me but he’s no bigger than 2/1 and I’m not convinced enough to be backing him at that price in this field.

There are certainly potential pitfalls, including in his opening match which will come against either Federico Coria – a finalist here in 2021 – or Thiago Monteiro, who is no mug on clay.

Nadal – a 6/1 shot – and 2024 breakout star Mariano Navone are also in this half, while it’s worth remembering that Rublev beat Ruud in last year’s final here.

However, the man I feel might be able to make an impact in this section at a big price is CRISTIAN GARIN.

The Chilean was a regular contender for this sort of claycourt title a few years ago but injuries set him back and he’s slipped down the rankings.

But during the recent clay swing, he made semi-finals in Estoril and Munich and I think he’ll fancy his chances at his latest 250-level tournament.

He qualified for Wimbledon recently as he notched a few more wins and he’s already bedded back in on clay having made the quarter-finals of the Braunschweig Challenger, losing only 7-5 in the final set to eventual champion ROBERTO CARBALLES BAENA.

He’d certainly be an outsider were he to face Ruud in the quarter-finals but it’s interesting to see that Garin leads their head-to-head 3-2.

Admittedly, Ruud won their last meeting which came here 12 months ago, but Garin won the first set that day and did manage to beat the Norwegian in Indian Wells last season.

At 40/1, he’s worth a small punt.

In the opposite half, the aforementioned Carballes Baena also looks a decent price.

Confidence will be flowing following that Challenger success in Germany and while I pointed out his battle with Garin, he also had a number of easy wins, including 6-1 6-3 over Botic van de Zandschulp in Saturday’s final.

He’s a former semi-finalist in Bastad and earlier this season rewarded each-way backers in Marrakech, where he made the final.

With Rublev scratching around for form, RCB could be the man to topple the Russian should they meet in the last eight (they’ve not met before).

EFL Swiss Open

• Gstaad, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

Gstaad may not be that far from Paris geographically but it will certainly feel a long way from the Olympics this week.

Playing up at a considerable altitude in the Swiss Alps – they are over 1,000m above sea level here – isn’t exactly the ideal way to prepare for the forthcoming Paris Games.

That’s reflected in the fact that the seventh seed this week is the world number 94, Fabio Fognini.

As I’ve written many times before ahead of events such as these, I’m seeking players with a proven ability in these conditions – the balls fly through the thinner air that bit quicker and can be difficult to control.

Last year we managed to find such players perfectly, backing both finalists each way to land a very tasty profit.

The pair in question – PEDRO CACHIN and ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS – are back for more this year and in a weak field, I simply can’t ignore the big prices available about the pair.

Both can be backed at 70/1 and above which just looks wrong to me.

OK, there are reasons why they are going off longer than last year – neither is in the form they were in 2023, while both have had the misfortune to draw seeds in round one.

But these things aren’t enough to put me off and there are plenty of positives to suggest they can outperform their odds.

Let’s start with Cachin, a player who had lost 15 matches in a row prior to April.

However, since the European clay swing began, he’s picked up, beating Sebastian Ofner and Frances Tiafoe in the high altitude of Madrid before losing to Rafael Nadal, but not before winning a set against the all-time clay great.

There have also been a couple of semi-final appearances on the Challenger Tour since the French Open, showing form is returning.

This will be a step up but maybe not a huge one – as already highlighted, the majority of this field is Challenger-level quality.

Key for Cachin will be getting past Matteo Berrettini in round one.

That’s certainly a tough ask – Berrettini is also a former champion in Gstaad – but he remains short of matchplay following more injury woes and a quick switch back to the clay won’t really be welcomed by the Italian.

The pair have never met before and so I’m prepared to take a chance on Cachin’s claycourt know-how causing a few problems.

As for Ramos-Vinolas, he’s long been my go-to man in such conditions.

I thought I’d backed him for the last time earlier this season but the price here has sucked me back in, despite his poor form.

Perhaps I’ll regret it – he’s up against fifth seed Jan-Lennard Struff first up – but the Spaniard is 1-1 on clay against the German, who will need to hold back a bit with the power at this altitude.

Ramos-Vinolas has loved playing up in the Alps in the past – as well as reaching last year’s final, he won here in 2019 and made the semis in 2022.

He’s also made the final over the border in Kitzbuhel, so now seems a good time to tell you that two of his four ATP titles and eight of his 12 final appearances have come at a significant altitude.

There’s no doubt these two bets could go bottom up very quickly but I refuse to believe either should be 70/1 and so will back both men each way to small stakes.

The top seed and bookies’ favourite is Stefanos Tsitsipas but you have to question his decision to prepare for the Olympics – at which he will surely feel he has a medal chance – in Gstaad.

Ugo Humbert, the second seed, isn’t a claycourter and Felix Auger-Aliassime remains hugely frustrating, especially from a punter’s perspective.

In short, the outsiders certainly have the potential here and, hopefully, we’ve picked out two who can deliver.

Posted at 1650 BST on 14/07/24

Infosys Hall of Fame Open

• Newport, USA (outdoor grass)

The grasscourt season concludes with the last-ever Hall of Fame Open at Newport, Rhode Island.

The players gathered here aren’t much interested in the Olympics but that also means only two of the top 50 are in attendance.

My initial look through the draw resulted in Brandon Nakashima being shortlisted.

The American has enjoyed himself on grass of late, making the Stuttgart semi-finals (when he was a near miss for this column), pushing eventual runner-up Lorenzo Musetti to a final set at Queen’s and then reaching the third round of Wimbledon where he dropped serve only once.

That serve is a shot I’ve mentioned in this column in the past and it could carry him a long way again this week.

However, Nakashima is just 4/1 to win the title and that’s too short for me to get involved.

He’s only captured one title in his career so far (that came on a hardcourt) and he’s possibly going to have to beat two of the other market leaders – Jakub Mensik and Marcos Giron – just to make the semis.

Up in the top half, eighth seed Rinky Hijikata has some potential at 20/1. Including qualifying, he won four matches at Queen’s before being edged out by Sebastian Korda.

Reilly Opelka is another interesting one at 28/1.

The huge-serving American is returning to action after a long injury lay-off – he last played in November.

That comeback was aborted so anyone considering backing him this week should know they are gambling on his body holding up.

But, if it does, don’t rule out him bursting through the draw.

If it’s in good working order, that serve will be hard to break in these conditions – and it’s carried him to titles in the past.

He’d certainly be an awkward opening opponent for top seed and defending Adrian Mannarino.

Opelka would probably be the one for me if I wanted a bet here but it’s a big ask after so long out and with the other options we have this week, I’m going to leave this alone.

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