Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour May 21-28

2pts win Francisco Cerundolo to win the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon at 6/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Gregoire Barrere in the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Dusan Lajovic in the Gonet Geneva Open at 18/1 (bet365)

0.75pt e.w. Christopher O’Connell in the Gonet Geneva Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

• Lyon, France (outdoor clay)

I’ve rarely been one for backing the favourites in the week before a Slam, although I must admit I was tempted on this occasion.

Cam Norrie heads the market in Lyon, an event he won last year, finished runner-up at in 2021 and made the semis of back in 2018.

That pretty much quells my usual fears about a top player being worried about overplaying ahead of a Slam – and certainly ticks the box in terms of a proven ability to produce the goods in such weeks.

We’ve seen it time and again in the past that some players simply don’t want to go into a fortnight-long Grand Slam tournament with a full week of tennis in their legs.

Some check out mentally, others check out completely – mid-event withdrawals are not uncommon especially if there’s a hint of an injury problem.

Essentially, backing short prices in these weeks carries plenty of risk and given the last I saw of Norrie was him being treated on court in Rome for what appeared to be a hip flexor problem, I can’t back him here at 7/2, despite his impressive track record.

Neither am I keen on top seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is yet to win a claycourt match since arriving in Europe.

The Canadian did make the final here four years ago and is probably more likely to be trying his utmost given the need for matches under the belt but I’ve simply not seen the sort of form he’ll require to win this week.

If you are prepared to swerve FAA, the top half looks very open with Brandon Nakashima (only just back from injury) and the veteran Richard Gasquet among the seeds.

The other is Tommy Paul, a man who reached a Challenger Tour final on clay earlier this month but has gone 0-3 on the surface on the main tour.

This looks a good section to try a long shot and so that’s what I going to do in the shape of GREGOIRE BARRERE.

While he’s not been to an ATP final before, there have been a few encouraging form signs in recent weeks on the clay.

Last week in Rome he beat Karen Khachanov before losing in three sets to Francisco Cerundolo. In Madrid, there was a narrow, two tie-break defeat to Grigor Dimitrov, while in Banja Luka it took eventual champion Dusan Lajovic to beat the Frenchman.

Time and again, Barrere has produced his best results in his homeland; that’s certainly been the case this season.

On the main tour, his best effort was a quarter-final showing in Marseille where seed Alexander Bublik was defeated before a narrow 7-6 7-6 loss to Holger Rune. That followed on from a Challenger Tour success in Quimper.

Last year, there were two Challenger titles in France, as well as a runner-up finish at the clay event in Aix-en-Provence.

Barrere hit a career-high ranking just a few weeks ago and so should be full of confidence heading to Lyon.

Yes, it’s a long shot but one I’m prepared to back each-way to small stakes.

Down in the bottom half, there’s been plenty to like about FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO’s play on the European clay and he looks the best bet from those higher up the market.

He beat Norrie in Monte Carlo and Casper Ruud in Barcelona before a run to the last eight in Rome where Jannik Sinner was among his victims.

Those are some quality wins and while there will understandably be some concern among potential backers about the Argentine wanting to hold something back for the forthcoming French Open, I’m not convinced he feels he’s a real contender there yet.

As fourth seed, he’s getting a first-round bye this week which means only four wins will be needed for the title, and also a Tuesday/Wednesday start ensuring almost a full week off since defeat to Ruud in Rome.

If Cerundolo is motivated enough this week, there’s every chance he can win and a price of 6/1 is just enough to hook me in.

Gonet Geneva Open

• Geneva, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

Like Norrie in Lyon, Casper Ruud is another player with a proven track record in the week before a Grand Slam – notably at this very event.

He arrives as the two-time defending champion and so, in theory, should take some stopping.

Ruud may well justify odds of 13/5; after all he comes in off the back of a semi-final appearance in Rome where his form was much improved following a disappointing start to the claycourt season.

Still, Ruud’s efforts in Rome also leave some question marks – will he really want to push himself through four more potentially tough matches the week before the French Open, where he is defending big points following last year’s run to the final?

And will there be any after-effects from his miserable loss to Holger Rune in Saturday’s semi-final, one Ruud led 7-6 4-2 but then won only two more games?

I would certainly suggest the confidence might not be flowing as much as it has been upon arrival in Geneva in the past and I’m not going to back him at the price this week.

I’ve been waiting for a chance to get with Alex Zverev for some time but it would appear the opportunity is never going to arrive.

The German, winner here in 2019, has certainly taken his time getting back to any sort of form following the ankle injury which struck at last year’s French Open. However, there have been signs of real improvement during the claycourt season.

Defeats to Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Carlos Alcaraz are far from a disgrace but the bottom line is I still want a lot more than 15/4 about him winning this week. The bookies are taking no chances with him.

Ruud and Zverev are actually both in the top half of the draw and if we’re prepared to take both on, who looks good at a tasty price?

I did consider 2019 runner-up Nicolas Jarry.

There’s a bit of altitude involved this week – Geneva is around 400m above sea level – and that should aid the Chilean who won up high in Santiago earlier this season.

His serve gets some decent pop in these conditions but the fact is his form in Europe has been poor – just three wins in eight matches on the clay over the past month or so.

I’m more tempted by his first-round opponent, who is DUSAN LAJOVIC.

The Serb produced an excellent week in Banja Luka recently to claim the title, beating Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev en route.

In contrast to Jarry, he’s now 8-4 on the Euro clay having also beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime in Madrid where he proved he can adjust to conditions at altitude.

Yes, there’s a chance he has to face both Ruud (QF) and Zverev (SF) before any potential profit but a small play at 18/1 looks worthwhile.

In the bottom half, Taylor Fritz is the man the bookies expect to make the final but after a surprisingly strong start to the clay season, the American has faded somewhat in recent weeks.

His last two matches have brought defeats to Zhang Zhizhen and Yannick Hanfmann, the world numbers 99 and 101 respectively.

Fritz will want to get back to winning ways this week so should be motivated and he does look to have the draw which will allow him to do that, at least prior to the semis.

However, at 4/1 I’m more than happy to look elsewhere and the man I feel is worth a punt is CHRISTOPHER O’CONNELL.

Since moving onto the clay last month, the Australian has won nine of 14 matches at all levels to move up to a career-high ranking of 78.

He was a quarter-finalist in Marrakech where Botic van de Zandschulp was defeated, while he went a round further in Munich – a venue at a similar altitude to Geneva – where he took down Zverev before losing to Rune.

O’Connell has been serving notably well during his run and the Madrid altitude emphasised that – 26 aces in his two matches which were a win over Filip Krajinovic and a narrow loss to Fritz.

I can also excuse his Rome loss to compatriot Alexei Popyrin – it can always be awkward facing someone who knows your game well – and am happy to give him a chance at 33/1.

Grigor Dimitrov and Bernabe Zapata Miralles are the seeds in his quarter, which isn’t the toughest draw around, while Fritz could await in the last four.

O’Connell is certainly a player who won’t be thinking too much about what lies ahead and I think he can give it a good go in Geneva.

Posted at 1900 BST on 20/05/23; updated at 2145

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