The tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami have long been linked, be it by their back-to-back position in the calendar or by the use of the term ‘Sunshine Double’.

Yet, in reality, there is little about them that is the same.

Indian Wells is played at a tennis-specific venue, amid the Californian desert where the air is dry and the high-bouncing courts slow.

Miami is almost the complete opposite. Here, they hire out the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Rock Stadium (and its parking lot) to stage matches. And, while the Laykold court surface is faster, the Florida humidity makes the balls fluff up quickly and travel slower through the air.

In short, it’s a tricky transition to make and that’s a big reason for the title double being a rarely achieved feat. For the record, the last man to do it was Novak Djokovic in 2016.

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The man bidding to complete it this year is Jack Draper and while he played some excellent tennis in Indian Wells, I’d be very surprised were he to go back-to-back.

Having championed Draper’s cause for some time on these pages, I was personally delighted to see the Briton triumph at the weekend, but his career has been beset by physical problems and after a tough 10 days or so in the desert, I don’t think having to win six rounds again after only a few days’ rest is a task he’s likely to complete.

Draper has been drawn in the top quarter, where he could face Holger Rune in the last 16 in what would be a repeat of Sunday’s final in Indian Wells.

The top seed is Alex Zverev but the German has struggled since the Australian Open with his latest early exit coming at the hands of Tallon Griekspoor in California. I see little value in his price.

One I do feel is a decent alternative is ARTHUR FILS.

He’s another I’ve picked out from a young age and having highlighted his chances in 2025 in my pre-season preview, I was pleased to see him play well in Indian Wells.

In a final-set tie-break, the Frenchman was just a couple of points away from beating Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals, a match which was arguably one of the best on the ATP Tour this season from a quality perspective.

His performance should certainly give him plenty of encouragement heading to Miami and I’ve long felt he’s a player capable of adjusting to any surface.

With confidence up, this looks a section of the draw in which Fils could make waves.

Admittedly, Griekspoor could be an awkward opening opponent but Frances Tiafoe, the first seed in Fils’ path, is struggling at the moment, as is the aforementioned Zverev.

With Draper far from certain to be around for any potential quarter-final, I think this is a decent opportunity for Fils and at 90/1, he’s worth a punt.

Pole looks an ace wager

Moving onto the second quarter, I’m surprised to see 150/1 available about HUBERT HURKACZ.

Perhaps those who watched him win only four games against Alex de Minaur last week won’t be – and that’s certainly a concern.

But the fact is this is a venue at which the Pole has performed well at in the past, whereas he’s had longer-term struggles in Indian Wells.

Hurkacz is 15-4 in Miami, a record which includes four top-10 wins, the title in 2021 and a semi-final appearance in 2022.

In contrast, he’s never been past the last eight in Indian Wells and is now just 11-6 at that venue.

Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev are the top seeds in this section but both fell early in Indian Wells and with 11-8 and 12-9 records here hardly setting the world on fire, both can be opposed.

Yes, Hurkacz will need to serve better than he did against De Minaur – the pair could meet again in the quarter-finals – but that is his go-to shot and one you’d expect him to be able to put right fairly easily.

Returning to a venue at which he’s won before could act as a catalyst too and I can’t resist a small price-based play.

Miami ATP Masters 1000 Main Draw Singles pic.twitter.com/7HOf0aImws
— Tennis Draws (@DrawsTennis) March 17, 2025

For a more realistic winner, I’m heading to DANIIL MEDVEDEV in the third quarter.

The trip to Indian Wells proved to be just what the doctor ordered and an event at which he’d played well before produced another semi-final appearance.

As already mentioned, Medvedev was excellent against Fils in their quarter-final and his celebration of that victory showed exactly what it meant to him – he clearly felt he was back in business.

OK, the Russian would have been disappointed to then lose his semi-final with Rune but it was a strong week or two’s work.

Medvedev also has an impressive Miami record, winning here in 2023 and making the semis 12 months ago.

He does have a tricky draw with Jiri Lehecka, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Djokovic all potentially to be faced before the last four.

Yet an in-form Medvedev should not fear those opponents and I’m certainly surprised to see that Djokovic is considered the tournament’s second favourite by the bookies; he was poor in losing to Botic van de Zandschulp in Indian Wells.

Yes, he is a six-time champion here but the last of those titles came in 2016 when the event was still being played on Key Biscayne.

It moved to its current location in Miami Gardens in 2019 when Djokovic lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in the last 16 and he’s not been back since.

We’re sadly becoming accustomed to some underwhelming performances from the Serb, certainly at this level and below.

While we’ve seen flashes of his best – think the Olympics and this year’s Australian Open – that’s been the exception rather than the rule since the start of last season, a period in which Djokovic has failed to win a Masters 1000 event and has made only one final.

Medvedev looks a more likely winner of this section and is a bigger price, ergo...

Cerundolo back on the radar

Finally, a look at the bottom quarter also throws up an eye-catching price.

FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO loves playing in Miami, with its Latin America vibe and fans.

The Argentine was a surprise semi-finalist here in 2022 but he backed it up with a run to the last eight the following year. It’s the tournament that “put me on the radar”, he says.

Last season brought an early exit but there was still plenty to take out of a final-set tie-break defeat to Karen Khachanov.

Interestingly, Cerundolo is up on the head-to-head against the first two seeds he could face – Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud – and he arrives in decent nick having beaten De Minaur in Indian Wells last week.

The man he eventually lost to in the desert, Carlos Alcaraz, could be the biggest problem in the quarter-finals.

I’ve got this far without mentioning the title favourite but while he is probably the man to beat, odds of 13/5 make little appeal having seen the Spaniard produce an error-strewn display against Draper in their Indian Wells semi.

OK, anyone can have a bad day, but it really wasn’t good from Alcaraz, who was also found wanting against Lehecka in Doha recently, not to mention Djokovic at the Australian Open.

At the price, I’ll take him on knowing I won’t regret not backing him if he does repeat his 2022 breakthrough success here.

Posted at 1315 GMT on 18/03/25

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