Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview for Mubadala Citi DC Open

Recommended bets: Mubadala Citi DC Open

1pt e.w. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Mackenzie McDonald at 35/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mubadala Citi DC Open

• Washington, DC, USA (outdoor hard)

Most eyes in the tennis world will be focused on Paris and the Olympic Games this week – but not those gathered in the US capital.

No, these are not people seething at the inclusivity of the Opening Ceremony who have vowed never to watch the Greatest Show on Earth.

Instead, these players are focused on other goals, prime among them the fast-approaching US Open.

That is played on hardcourts, not the clay in use in France, and so preparing in the ‘usual’ tour way makes more sense to many. Others simply didn’t qualify for the Olympics.

The courts in use here are Har-Tru ones, first laid ahead of the 2022 tournament. They play pretty quick by today’s standards, as evidenced by the two previous champions.

In 2022, Nick Kyrgios triumphed here, holding his serve throughout, while last season Briton Dan Evans was something of a surprise winner, although he always wants a fast surface as it aids his game.

The heat certainly helps speed things up and the weather forecast again has temperatures well into the 30s – it’s due to hit a high of 36C with 30C touched every day of the tournament.

It’s usually pretty humid too, though, and so it’s fairly similar to Atlanta where the ATP Tour stopped last week.

Given those strength-sapping conditions, I’m not keen on backing anyone who went deep in Georgia last week.

Notably, the two finalists – Jordan Thompson and Yoshihito Nishioka – plus semi-finalist Arthur Rinderknech are all in the top half here.

That section is headed up by Andrey Rublev but the world number nine hasn’t been in good form and failed to break out of his funk in Umag last week.

To be fair, he did manage to win a couple of matches but even considering those victories, he’s lost six of his last 10.

At least that’s beginning to be reflected in his odds – he’s available at 7/1 here – but even that’s not for me, especially when you consider Rublev isn’t a player who wants it too fast.

The man I feel may be worth taking a risk on is rising star GIOVANNI MPETSHI PERRICARD.

His serve is now among the biggest on the tour and should win him plenty of cheap points in these conditions.

The 6ft 8in Frenchman has been a real breakthrough act in 2024.

The fact that a man who started the year outside the top 200 is seeded ninth here reflects that, with his run of the past few months particularly impressive.

During the grasscourt season, he won 10 of 14 matches and prior to that he captured his first ATP title on the clay of Lyon.

It’s a while since he played on hardcourts but he returns to the surface on a run of 10 straight wins on it. Admittedly, all of those came on the second-tier Challenger Tour – on which he’s won three hardcourt titles in 2024 – but it’s still another good sign.

Mpetshi Perricard’s serve has been caused all sorts of problems in terms of players returning it and a lot of that seems to be the fact that so many opponents have yet to get a good look at it.

• CLICK HERE to back Mpetshi Perricard with Sky Bet

At a venue where that shot should be aided, the 21-year-old looks worth taking a chance on at 20/1.

The bottom half looks very open if you are prepared to take on second seed Ben Shelton.

He’s another you’d think should go well in Washington but he’s been well below his best for long periods of 2024 and, like Rublev, arrives here having gone 4-6 across his last 10 matches, including defeat in his opener in Atlanta last week.

Karen Khachanov has potential.

The third seed played well on hardcourts earlier in the season, making the last 16 of the Australian Open, the semis in Marseille and claiming the title in Doha.

However, form has tailed off in recent months and while I can see a change of surface providing the tonic the Russian needs right now, I’d want more than 12/1 to be backing him this week.

Instead, I’m going to try another player who prefers playing on a fairly quick surface and that’s MACKENZIE McDONALD.

Form isn’t great so there’s no doubt there’s plenty of risk involved, but the American does enjoy this time of year and the conditions this week should allow him to play his aggressive game – he’s happy to come forward when given the opportunity.

In 2021, he made the final here, losing the final only 7-5 in the third to a certain Jannik Sinner.

And during the last summer hardcourt season, McDonald posted top-10 wins over Holger Rune and Rublev.

Last week in Atlanta he recorded a decent victory over Brandon Nakashima in the first round and so, having landed in this fairly weak-looking half of the draw, I can see just about enough to warrant throwing some small change at him at 35/1.

• CLICK HERE to back McDonald with Sky Bet

Posted at 1755 BST on 28/07/24

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