Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Washington DC, Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts win Alex de Minaur in the Mifel Open at 11/2 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Kei Nishikori in the Mubadala Citi DC Open at 33/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Yoshihito Nishioka in the Mubadala Citi DC Open at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Daniel Altmaier in the Generali Open at 12/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the Generali Open at 28/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in the Generali Open at 40/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mifel Open

• Los Cabos, Mexico (outdoor hard)

Cameron Norrie has long been my go-to man for the ATP’s events in Mexico.

They play on fairly sluggish Solflex courts both here and in Acapulco and such conditions suit Norrie down to the ground.

This event actually only moved to its current venue (from down the road) in 2021 and in the two editions it has staged thus far, Norrie has won once and finished runner-up on the other occasion.

Norrie also made the semis in Los Cabos in 2018 and also has an impressive record in Acapulco where he was the beaten finalist last season.

I remember backing him with confidence this time last season when he was 11/2 and coming in off the back of a Wimbledon semi-finals.

The problem this time around is Norrie is just 9/2 and unquestionably in worse form. Therefore that confidence simply isn’t there 12 months on.

I obviously wouldn’t rule him out – Norrie made the quarter-finals on the slow hardcourts of Indian Wells earlier in the year and hasn’t been completely out of sorts – but he’s certainly been short of his best and so I don’t feel there’s any value in his price.

I prefer to back ALEX DE MINAUR, another player who has proved his credentials on the Solflex surface – the Australian emerged as the champion in Acapulco in March, landing this column a 40/1 winner in the process!

He was a quarter-finalist in Atlanta last week, a tournament at which he has a strong record, although you’d naturally think his defensive game is better suited to the conditions he’ll have this week.

He’s actually seeded to lose in the last eight again – Tommy Paul being his scheduled opponent in the quarter-finals – but De Minaur leads their head-to-head 4-0, the most recent clash coming in that Acapulco final.

The winner could meet Norrie in the last four – De Minaur is level at 1-1 with the Briton in their head-to-head series.

Sadly, De Minaur’s odds have been cut from 13/2 to 11/2 since I began writing this preview but I still think that represents better value than backing Norrie.

The Aussie made the final at Queen’s Club last month so has some good, recent form in the bank. I’m happy to back him here.

The tournament favourite is in the opposite half of the draw and that’s Stefanos Tsitsipas.

However, it would take a brave person to back at Greek at 2/1.

This is his first appearance since Wimbledon and he’s been back in his homeland with his family until a few days ago.

While it’s hard to say with certainty that Tsitsipas’ relationship with WTA star Paula Badosa has taken his attention away from the court, it does look highly likely, and it would be no great surprise were he to flop again this week.

At least he’s landed in the weaker half of the draw, although if he plays John Isner first up, it’s obvious that match could be dangerous.

I did look at taking the Greek on in this half but those available at big prices, in truth, make little appeal.

I’ll therefore put all the eggs in De Minaur’s basket for Los Cabos this year.

Mubadala Citi DC Open

• Washington DC, USA (outdoor hard)

I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to side with KEI NISHIKORI since he returned to action and this week may provide that chance.

The Japanese’s comeback, which began with a title on the Challenger Tour in Puerto Rico last month, is rolling along nicely and the former world number four has an excellent 18-7 win-loss record in Washington.

His last five visits have brought results of SF-QF-SF-W-QF.

Yes, it’s fair to say he’ll probably need to find another gear if he’s to go deep again this week but the signs of improvement have been good with Nishikori moving back on the main tour last week in Atlanta and making the last eight.

He’s long loved the hardcourts – Nishikori made the US Open final in 2014 – and should relish a return to this venue.

While his draw is tricky, I also believe it’s one which could work in his favour.

It could well be big servers all the way for Nishikori, who will open against Lloyd Harris with the winner meeting Christopher Eubanks. From there, Kevin Anderson and Taylor Fritz could follow.

If that’s a run which does unfold, Nishikori may well be able to play his eye into facing a big serve, although it should be pointed out that the high humidity which affects the US capital in summer may well slow the balls down a touch.

They are now playing on a HarTru surface having moved across from DecoTurf and SportMaster over the years.

Any way, I’m prepared to give Nishikori a try, albeit to small stakes.

The bottom half is led by local hero Frances Tiafoe, who is yet to go beyond the last eight of his home event, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, whose 2023 season has been a big disappointment.

Preference is to look elsewhere.

I did consider Sebastian Korda, who is a player I believe will be happy to be back on a hardcourt this week.

He was a quarter-finalist here 12 months ago and while he’s another who probably expected to have enjoyed a better season than he has done to date, Korda did make the semi-finals at Queen’s Club last month where he beat Tiafoe – a potential last-eight foe this week – and Cam Norrie.

However, I expected him to be a bit bigger than the 10/1 on offer and I don’t feel that’s a price I can play at.

Instead I’m going to side with YOSHIHITO NISHIOKA, the man who was a surprise finalist here last season.

While the Japanese probably wasn’t too happy to lose out to Aleks Vukic in Atlanta last week, he was only beaten in a third-set tie-break and the result was given a more positive light when the Australian went on to make the final.

He’s enjoyed some good results on the hardcourts this year, making the semis in Adelaide and the last 16 of the Australian Open, so he’ll be looking forward to this part of the season, especially given he did so well here last season. At the time he spoke about how “I love to play here”.

Nishioka’s draw looks pretty decent – he’s in the same quarter as FAA and Grigor Dimitrov.

He’ll be prepared to grind things out from the back of the court and wear opponents down, as he did at times here 12 months ago. It’s also worth noting that there’s a bit of a breeze forecast this week and Nishioka is a good player in such conditions, making life awkward for his opponents by mixing things up and controlling the ball well.

He’s the 10th seed and a former runner-up yet is available at 40/1. I’m not sure that’s right and will bet accordingly.

All thing considered, I’m happy to play at the price.

Generali Open

• Kitzbuhel, Austria (outdoor clay)

This column enjoyed some great success when the tour’s claycourters were last up at altitude – in Gstaad a couple of weeks ago when our two 25/1 picks, Pedro Cachin and Albert Ramos-Vinolas, contested the final.

Well, the tour returns to the Alps this week and with the Austrian ski resort of Kitzbuhel more than 700m above sea level, the balls will again be flying.

Yes, that can aid the big-hitters but you also need to control and ball and simply going with power will only result in you sending too many shots long.

As we saw in Gstaad, it can pay to follow the altitude specialists who have a track record of doing just that.

Gstaad champion Cachin has gained a lot more respect in the market since his victory and he’s going off here as the 13/2 favourite.

But while his price has tumbled, that of Ramos-Vinolas has not and I find that rather strange.

As pointed out a couple of weeks ago, the Spanish veteran has an excellent history in these conditions, one that has obviously got better since I wrote that preview.

Eight of his 12 career ATP finals have now come at a significant altitude, as have his two best results this season.

Yes, his draw is pretty tough with Juan Pablo Varillas up first followed by a rematch with Cachin. However, JPV was among Ramos-Vinolas’ victims in Gstaad, while it should be remembered that the Gstaad final was only edged 7-5 in the third by Cachin.

Laslo Djere is also in this quarter but after playing in the Hamburg final on Sunday, he may well find it difficult to adjust to the vastly different conditions on offer in Austria.

The same can be said of Alexei Popyrin, a surprise finalist in Umag, and I’m tempted to side with the man he faces in round one, ARTHUR RINDERKNECH.

The Frenchman has that big serve that can have cut-through at altitude but he showed last week in Zug that he has the ability to control the ball correctly too.

Rinderknech won the Swiss Challenger event, played 425m above sea level, so unlike many of those gathering here, he should be already well tuned into the conditions.

Popyrin is his first opponent followed by another renowned altitude performer, Yannick Hanfmann, runner-up here in 2019.

The German is capable of another good run here but the fact is he’s gone just 2-2 on the clay in the past couple of weeks, losing to Hamad Medjedovic in Gstaad, and the bookies continue to price him up pretty short.

I prefer to take a chance on Rinderknech at 28/1.

Finally, I’ll also take one in the top half where top seed and 13/2 shot Tomas Etcheverry can be opposed.

Yes, he made the quarter-finals of the French Open on clay but he’s won just one of six matches since Roland Garros and conditions here are much different.

I considered both Guido Pella and Roberto Carballes Baena in this section. Both have proven they can play at altitude – RCB won in Marrakech earlier this season.

But the pair meet each other in the first round and I can’t really split one from the other and I’m not going to back both.

I’m therefore going to back a player at a shorter price but one who looks to have a kinder draw and that’s DANIEL ALTMAIER.

He was a semi-finalist here two years ago and to further prove his altitude credentials, it’s worth noting he reached the last eight of this season’s Madrid Masters.

The German’s recent form is good too.

Since the return to the clay, he’s made the quarter-finals of a Challenger event in his homeland, pushed the aforementioned Hanfmann to 7-5 in the third in Gstaad and, last week, beat top-10 star Andrey Rublev en route to the quarter-finals in Hamburg.

His draw here looks favourable with the struggling Marc-Andrea Huesler up first, followed by either Daniel Galan or Marco Cecchinato. Then could come Etcheverry.

Let’s back Altmaier at 12s.

Posted at 1820 BST on 30/07/23

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