Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Adelaide International and ASB Classic

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the ASB Classic at 12/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Francisco Cerundolo in the ASB Classic at 14/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the ASB Classic at 16/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Adelaide International at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

ASB Classic

• Auckland, New Zealand (outdoor hard)

The players I’m going to focus on in Auckland are those who have shown their desire to give their all in the week before a Grand Slam and I’m going to start with CAMERON NORRIE.

The Briton grew up in Auckland and so he’ll have that added motivation of performing well at what is something of a ‘home’ venue.

He’s gone well here in the past, making finals in 2023 and 2019, as well as the last eight last year when much of the tournament was played indoors.

Thankfully, the weather looks set much better this year, although it is a venue at which it tends to get windy at times.

Norrie made a decent start to the season last week in Hong Kong where he made the quarter-finals before losing to Kei Nishikori, who went on to reach the final, in three sets.

He’ll open against a qualifier before facing third seed Sebastian Baez, a player more at home on clay. Even having said that, it’s worth pointing out that Norrie is 2-0 up on the Argentine with both matches having taken place on the red dirt.

Then could come Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, the man who beat Novak Djokovic last week. However, having made the Brisbane semis, the young Frenchman is in that bracket of players you wonder will really want to be busting a gut to win this week.

In short, I think that’s a pretty decent draw for Norrie, who is worth backing at 12/1.

Also in the bottom half, it may well be worth taking a chance on LORENZO SONEGO.

The Italian was beaten by Norrie in round two in Hong Kong last week so will want to get more matches under his belt in Auckland.

Significantly, Sonego has a fine record in the weeks before a Slam and looks to be a player who really senses an opportunity at tournaments like this.

Two of his four ATP titles have come immediately prior to a Slam, as well three of his six final appearances.

The seeds in Sonego’s quarter are Alejandro Tabilo and Alex Michelsen and while the former was the surprise champion 12 months ago (largely indoors), I don’t think that’s a draw to be massively concerned about.

Up in the top half, Ben Shelton is the top seed. He made the semis here last season but makes little appeal at 9/2, especially given his quarter looks stacked.

It includes Hong Kong finalist Alexandre Muller and Brisbane finalist Reilly Opelka. I’d certainly be looking to oppose the latter, given Brisbane was the first time for a long time that he’d played five matches in a week. One suspects it may have taken its toll on what has been a fragile body in recent times.

In contrast, the second quarter looks the weakest of the four.

Jan-Lennard Struff immediately caught the eye but I was then surprised to find he’s not actually won back-to-back tour-level matches on outdoor hardcourts for four years, last doing so at the 2021 ATP Cup!

Instead, I’m backing FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO at a similar price.

The Argentine would rather be on clay but he’s had some decent hardcourt results at times, including beating Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and Jack Draper on the surface last season.

He’s also another with a good record in the week before a Slam – two of his five ATP finals have come in such weeks – Lyon and Eastbourne in 2023.

Cerundolo won’t be winning the Australian Open – he’ll do very well to make the second week – so I think he’ll be one gunning for this title and that soft draw should certainly help his cause.

A first-round bye means he’ll open against wild card Lucas Pouille or Roberto Carballes Baena, while his first seeded opponent is due to be Flavio Cobolli, who took a real pasting against Tomas Machac at the United Cup last week.

Maybe Cerundolo screams semi-final loser but I’m prepared to back him each way at 14/1.

Adelaide International

• Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)

I always feel like a bit of a stuck record when writing these previews the week before a Grand Slam begins but I feel it’s important to know the potential pitfalls facing punters in weeks such as these.

Given the rewards on offer at the Slams – be it prize money or, for those with a genuine chance, glory – players want to make sure they make it to the start line in good shape.

With this in mind, the slightest niggle could well see a withdrawal this week.

The other thing to bear in mind is motivation levels.

For those truly believing they can go deep at the Australian Open, will they really want to reach next Saturday’s final in Adelaide (or Auckland) before rushing to Melbourne, thus depriving themselves of settling into the conditions of the more important event and also arriving weary?

It’s this reason that nearly always makes me swerve the favourites in a week like this.

Take top seed Tommy Paul, the only top-20 player in this field.

I’m far from convinced he wants four tough matches this week, even if he does have a decent record in Adelaide, although notably he’s always departed prior to the final.

It’s worth mentioning at this point that in both 2022 and 2023 Adelaide staged back-to-back ATP events, one in the first week of the season and one in this second week.

You’ve also got players here that have already gone well in the opening week so, again, you have to wonder will they want another full week of tennis in their legs?

Jiri Lehecka, the fourth seed here, made the Brisbane final, while Jaume Munar was a Hong Kong semi-finalist. I’d take on both men here.

At the opposite end of the scale are those who missed last week due to injuries. They will probably want matches this week but are their bodies ready for the challenge if they weren’t right only seven days ago?

Second seed Sebastian Korda is in this camp, as is former champion and local hero Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Both men have a good record in Adelaide but back and hip problems forced them to miss Brisbane last week and so backing either clearly carries risk.

Both men are in the bottom quarter and I’m prepared to take them on with ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT.

The veteran Spaniard was runner-up here in this week two years ago, which links into another factor which is worth seeking out this week – players with a track record of starting the season well.

Few have done that better over the years than RBA.

He’s won pre-Australian Open events in Doha, Auckland (twice) and Chennai, as well as playing in finals in Adelaide, Melbourne and Chennai.

It’s also worth mentioning that he’s been to two finals in Winston-Salem, the tournament held the week before the US Open so he’s rarely had qualms about pushing himself the week before a Slam.

Bautista Agut finished 2024 strongly, winning 11 of his last 15 matches of the year, a run which took in the title in Antwerp.

Since then, he’s won two matches – against Kokkinakis and Alexander Bublik – at the controversial exhibition event in St Petersburg.

Put all that together and RBA looks to hold decent claims this week.

He’ll open against fellow Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina but RBA leads their head-to-head 2-1, his wins coming in the last two matches, both of which have been played on an outdoor hardcourt – as we have here. Both have also resulted in comfortable victories for the elder statesman.

The winner will face Korda, who will be playing his first match of the season – as long as his back is OK.

20/1 makes some appeal.

Posted at 1035 GMT on 05/01/25

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