Andy Schooler will be previewing every match at this week’s ATP Finals in Turin. Here’s his look at the opening day’s play.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets
1.5pts Daniil Medvedev to serve over 3.5 double faults at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Jannik Sinner (-4.5) to beat Alex de Minaur on the game handicap at 8/11 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev v Taylor Fritz (1300 GMT)
These two have met only once before, Medvedev winning a serve-dominated contest in Cincinnati in 2022.
That match, which ended 7-6 6-3, featured just the one break of serve and my initial thought here was to back a tie-break in the match.
Turin has produced some of the fastest conditions on the tour since this event moved there in 2021 with 22 of the 45 matched played in the Inalpi Arena featuring a breaker.
However, Medvedev’s serve is not as it once was – he’s just 36th on tour this year for service games won, his figure of 79.7% being well below Fritz’s (88.6%). A niggling shoulder problem, which has been apparent of late, hasn’t helped.
Perhaps the fact that Medvedev’s return game is considerably better will help balance things out but with Jannik Sinner saying on media day that the Greenset Grand Prix court is playing “a bit slower” than last year, there’s enough to drag me away from my initial view.
For the record, a tie-break in the match can be backed at 17/20 with William Hill.
Those of you who have already read my outright preview will know I’m ready to oppose Medvedev in this group and have already backed Fritz to qualify for the semis.
This match may well be crucial to that bet so I’ve no interest in getting involved here in the match outcome.
Instead, I’m liking the look of Medvedev in the double-faults market.
He’s not been in the best of form of late, that shoulder doubtless playing a part in that, and produced plenty of errors last time out in Paris where he lost his opening match to Alexei Popyrin. Fourteen of those errors were double faults.
Here, the Russian’s line is set at 3.5 and I’m keen to go over that.
Medvedev has landed this bet in six of his last nine matches, while he also delivered four DFs in that Cincinnati meeting with Fritz a couple of years ago.
Jannik Sinner v Alex de Minaur (1930 GMT)
Home hope and tournament favourite Sinner gets his title bid under way on Sunday night and this match looks hand-picked for him.
The world number one, who has already locked down the year-end top spot, is 7-0 against De Minaur, who has only won one set in that series.
Sinner has now won the last 13 sets against the Australian, who has held serve only 59% of the time across those matches and broken in just 11% of Sinner’s service games.
With De Minaur still not back to the form which he was producing prior to his Wimbledon injury, it looks a mighty task for him to turn that around here.
If you include the 6 Kings Slam in Riyadh (not an official tour event), Sinner has now won 24 of his last 25 matches so his form cannot be questioned.
However, the top seed is just 1/2 to win this in straight sets and while that will undoubtedly be backed by some, it’s not the sort of price I’m going to put up on these pages.
Instead, I think the game handicap can provide a modicum of value.
In their best-of-three matches, Sinner’s winning margins (in game terms) have been 4-9-7-7-6, a sequence which suggests he’s capable of covering the 4.5-game handicap at 8/11.
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