After a profitable opening day at the ATP Finals, Andy Schooler previews Monday’s matches, with Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Zverev among those in action.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets
1.5pts Alex Zverev to beat Andrey Rublev 2-0 at evens (bet365)
1pt under 20.5 games in Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud at 8/11 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz v Casper Ruud (1300 GMT)
There are two firm favourites on the opening day of the John Newcombe Group at the ATP Finals and I’m not giving the underdogs much chance of landing an upset.
From the moment the draw was made, this looked an easy pool to call and I’d be surprised were Alcaraz and Zverev not to make it through.
Alcaraz begins his campaign against the woefully-out-of-form Ruud, a player who has gone 2-8 since the US Open. And one of the wins was against the world number 157.
You have to go back to the Olympics to find his last top-40 win, while his last top-20 victory on a hardcourt came way back in early March in Acapulco.
Ruud actually holds a winning record against the top 10 this season but the fact is he hasn’t played anyone at that level since the French Open and so this could be something of a culture shock.
He was well beaten by world number 12 Taylor Fritz at the US Open, while Felix Auger-Aliassime (ranked 19th) took him apart in Cincinnati, allowing the Norwegian just four games.
His previous meetings with Alcaraz, who last month beat world number one Jannik Sinner to land the China Open title, offer little encouragement either – all four have been lost with just a single set won.
Sadly, 4/11 is all you’ll get about the straight-sets win here but there could be more value in the total-games market where under 20.5 is offered at 8/11.
The make-ups in their previous best-of-three matches have been 18-22-18 and those recent performances from Ruud suggest he could well struggle here.
Alex Zverev v Andrey Rublev (1930 GMT)
Zverev was last seen winning the Paris Masters so arrives in Turin with confidence high.
Conditions here don’t look quite so fast as they were in the French capital but they should still suit Zverev’s big serve and it’s worth remembering he’s a former champion in this very arena.
In contrast, Rublev has struggled for wins of late. While not in Ruud territory, his 6-5 record since the US Open is poor for a top-10 player and the fact is he’s only here because Novak Djokovic withdrew.
Rublev has been found wanting in this company in the past – his record at the ATP Finals is 4-9, the worst in the field.
He’s also struggled in this specific head-to-head, trailing 6-3 overall and 4-2 on hardcourts.
Notably, one of his losses came here 12 months ago when Zverev posted a 6-4 6-4 victory.
Indeed, all six of his victories over Rublev have come in straight sets, while I think it’s significant that all three of Rublev’s wins in the series came in 2023, a period during which Zverev was fighting back from long-term injury.
Zverev is the better player, has the better form and has beaten Rublev on this court before.
For me, a 2-0 win at evens is well worth a bet.
Posted at 1935 GMT on 10/11/24
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