In the first of his previews of the 2025 tennis season, Andy Schooler attempts to pick out the value from the men’s ante-post markets of the four Grand Slam tournaments.
Tennis ante-post betting tips: 2025 season
0.5pt e.w. Taylor Fritz to win the Australian Open at 40/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the French Open at 60/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
1pt Matteo Berrettini to win Wimbledon at 80/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
0.5pt e.w. Arthur Fils to win the US Open at 150/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Between them, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz mopped up men’s tennis’ biggest prizes in 2024.
The greatest player of all time, Novak Djokovic, has left without a Grand Slam title for only the second time in 14 years.
The Serb is determined to bounce back in 2025, hiring Andy Murray as a coach for his early-season assault on the Australian Open, a title he has won 10 times.
Yet is there any value to be had in backing any of the current ‘Big Three’ at this stage? The biggest price on offer on any of them is 5/1 about Djokovic landing the French Open.
For me, the answer is no and so the purpose of this column is to try to find some potential winners from further down the market.
Without further ado…
Australian Open
- When: January 12-26
- Where: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
- TV: Eurosport
Already less then a month away, this is always the toughest of the Slams in which to find some ante-post value.
With the serious contenders only likely to play one tournament before the first ball is hit in Melbourne, there’s simply not much opportunity for anyone to shake up the market – no-one currently 50/1 is going off at 20s.
In short, the market won’t be a great deal different to what it is now when the action begins.
Looking at it now, I’d suggest the best price with potential is Taylor Fritz’s 40/1.
The American enjoyed a strong second half of 2024 and he’ll be looking to continue in that vein having made a few off-season tweaks.
After winning at Eastbourne, Fritz reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon. Having moved on to the hardcourts, the Californian went on a career-best run at the US Open, making his first Slam final before losing to Jannik Sinner.
There was a semi-final at the Shanghai Masters (Novak Djokovic proving too good) before his season ended with a run to the title match at the ATP Finals in Turin where Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev and Alex Zverev were all beaten before Sinner again showed his class.
That period saw Fritz’s service weapon working well on a regular basis but the notable improvement was his play from the baseline where he has clearly become more aggressive and prepared to really take on opponents.
That approach reaped its rewards and could bring further prizes in 2025.
With GreenSet courts now laid, conditions in Melbourne are faster than they once were and that should help Fritz, who made the last eight Down Under in 2024 before losing to Djokovic.
Given the current entry lists, Fritz looks set to be seeded fourth for the Australian Open – another boost for his chances – and 40/1 does look a little tempting.
It certainly won’t last if the top three in the betting – Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic – are all drawn in the same half, which is a possibility due to the current rankings.
CLICK HERE to back Fritz with Sky Bet
French Open
- When: May 25-June 8
- Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France
- TV: Eurosport
When considering the French Open market, we’ve got a known unknown, to quote Donald Rumsfeld (youngsters, look him up), to consider.
I’m talking about Jannik Sinner, whose drugs case is expected to hit the Court of Arbitration for Sport some time between the Australian Open finishing and this event beginning.
The World Anti-Doping Agency are appealing the decision to declare Sinner free of any blame for his positive tests. If they are successful, the current world number one and second favourite may not even make it to the start line in Paris.
Even if he does, the clay is far from his favourite surface. In short, Sinner is worth opposing, certainly at this stage.
Casper Ruud is a player I’ve mentioned time and again in relation to the French Open over the years and I still feel he could have the title in him.
The Norwegian played in the 2022 and 2023 finals and last season reached the semis and was clearly hampered by illness in his defeat to Alex Zverev.
In terms of a potential price cut, it’s worth noting that Ruud has won a claycourt title in the lead-up to Roland Garros in each of the last four seasons, while he’s also made an impression in the big Masters events played on this surface.
Ruud was runner-up in Monte Carlos earlier this year, while he’s also been to the last four in Madrid and Rome in the past.
The problem is that he’s only 17/1 at present – this time 12 months ago he was out at 30/1 – so I’m not convinced there’s a great deal of juice in his price.
![Stefanos Tsitsipas](/images/news/945x532/79130e47-8a97-4bd3-bd36-3854048be8be.jpg)
For something a bit riskier but with potential for big rewards, it’s worth considering Stefanos Tsitsipas at 60/1.
Now, I get that some people will feel the Greek is a spent force and that many will suggest he’s more focused on other aspects of life, notably his relationship with WTA star Paula Badosa.
Yet Tsitsipas spoke recently about his “humbling experience” at missing out of the ATP Finals last season (having slipped out of the world’s top 10) and there seems a determination to bounce back.
The current off-season will have been his first without dad Apostolos in charge of his coaching – Tsitsipas has been working with Davis Cup captain Dimitris Chatzinikolaou – so there’s certainly reason to believe things could change in 2025.
But even if things continue in largely the same vein, should Tsitsipas really be out at 60/1 for the Slam on his best surface, a tournament at which he’s performed consistently well in?
His last five visits to Roland Garros have brought one final appearance, one semi-final and two quarter-finals.
Even during a relatively poor 2024, he still won the Monte Carlo Masters (for the third time in four years) and reached a fourth Barcelona final. He’s also been a Rome finalist (in 2022).
Four of his last six titles have come on clay - basically the spring is his time of year.
The often-mentioned backhand weakness isn’t shown up so much on the slower courts and I just feel this price looks rather large.
CLICK HERE to back Tsitsipas with Sky Bet
Wimbledon
- When: June 30-July 13
- Where: All England Club, Wimbledon, London, England, UK
- TV: BBC
Apologies for repeating myself but Matteo Berrettini is again the stand-out price in this market.
I mentioned the Italian in this column regarding the same tournament 12 months ago. He had potential then at 33/1 and certainly does now at more than twice that price.
The days of grasscourt specialists is over but it still takes a certain skillset to perform well on this surface, one which continues to baffle some of the top players.
I think it’s fair to say the pool of potential winners here is smaller than at any of the other Slams and Berrettini is certainly in it.
Having put him up here at 33s this time last year, it was disappointing to see Berrettini have to face top seed Jannik Sinner in round two. He still put up a decent fight, losing three tie-breaks in a four-set defeat.
A touch of class from @carlosalcaraz as he applauds his opponent Matteo Berrettini 👏#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/StQXPYyGax
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 10, 2023
The reason for mentioning him in the first place was his terrific track record on grass, which now stands at 42-11 at tour level. That win-loss record has brought in four ATP titles and taken him to the Wimbledon final (losing to Novak Djokovic in 2021).
The serve has played a big part in that. Berrettini hits a big number of service winners on this surface and it should be remembered that recent Wimbledon finalists have included Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic – all players with crunching first serves. Berrettini is also decent at the net, while his forehand is a major weapon too.
Last season, prior to that Sinner loss, Berrettini reached the final in Stuttgart despite relatively little preparation.
Berrettini’s 2024 season, which saw him win three claycourt titles, ended with him being part of Italy’s successful Davis Cup team. He actually won all five matches he contested in that competition and I’d suggest that stands him in good stead for 2025.
Of course, he’ll need his fragile body to hold up – there a definite risk on that injury front in backing Berrettini – but if he manages to play a full schedule between now and the start of the grasscourt season in June, I’ve little doubt he’ll be shorter than 80/1 to win Wimbledon, although, sadly, there are no each-way terms available at that price.
CLICK HERE to back Berrettini with Sky Bet
US Open
- When: August 25-September 7
- Where: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
- TV: Sky Sports
Still more than eight months away, the US Open market clearly has the biggest scope for change between now the first ball in New York.
So, my approach here is to look for players who could really make a big breakthrough in 2025.
The man who fits the bill for me is Arthur Fils.
![Arthur Fils](/images/news/945x532/d78bb1d2-45fb-42af-9fca-28a7155dd004.jpg)
I picked him out as my ‘one to watch’ on this very website 12 months ago and he duly shot up into the world’s top 20 with titles in Hamburg and Tokyo.
I actually felt he might have gone higher than that, although keeping expectations a little lower is probably a good thing heading into 2025, a year where Fils will look to take his game to the next level which will involve becoming a contender at this level.
Admittedly, Fils won only five matches at the Slams last season but at only 20, he’s still very much learning his trade and with former French Open champion Sergi Bruguera and Sebastien Grosjean in his coaching team, he’s got experience by the bucketload in his camp.
The Frenchman finished in the top 15 for first serve points won on both his own serve and return in 2024 which goes to show his potential.
The youngest player in the top 40 can go a lot higher in my eyes and so taking 150s now may look a good piece of business come August.
CLICK HERE to back Fils with Sky Bet
Posted at 1615 GMT on 16/12/24
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