This time last year Andy Schooler backed Jannik Sinner at 7/1 to finish as world number one so be sure to check out his best bets for the 2025 ATP Tour season.
Tennis ante-post betting tips: ATP Tour 2025 season
1pt Alex Zverev to be the year-end world number one at 10/1 (Bet365)
3pts Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to serve the most aces at 7/10 (Sportingbet)
1pt Arthur Fils to finish in the top 10 at 14/5 (Unibet, BetMGM)
4pts Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to finish in the top 30 at 4/5 (Unibet, BetMGM)
2pts Learner Tien to finish in the top 70 at 2/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
Year-end world number one
We landed a 7/1 winner in the shape of Jannik Sinner last season having put him up in this season preview piece.
Ranking list history may not show it but he’s now been the best player in the world for around 18 months and so it’s no surprise to see him favourite this time around.
Yet, you can get 11/10 at bet365 (who have him joint favourite with Carlos Alcaraz).
That price will tempt some but you need to ask why the Italian, who accumulated almost 4,000 more points than any other player in 2024, is available at those odds.
The answer is the elephant in the room – Sinner’s failed drugs tests back in March.
A independent tribunal cleared him of any wrong-doing, accepting the positive test occurred when a cream was applied by his physio, but the World Anti-Doping Agency has appealed that decision and the Court of Arbitration for Sport is expected to rule on the issue in February. Speculation abounds that Sinner could well receive a lengthy ban.
If that happens, clearly your 11/10 bet isn’t coming home.
Second-favourite Alcaraz will therefore have his backers at 15/8 but it’s worth remembering that he ended the 2024 campaign only third in the ranking list and the man who was directly above him – Alex Zverev – looks the player overpriced in this market.
The German finished almost 1,000 points ahead of Alcaraz, despite the Spaniard winning two Grand Slam titles (2,000 points for each), which goes to show what can be achieved even without claiming the sport’s biggest prizes.
Consistency was the key for Zverev, who reached the last 16 at every Grand Slam and Masters 1000 tournament, winning two titles in the latter category.
To land the 10/1, he will likely have to finally break that Grand Slam duck and the concern for many is that Zverev now has a pretty long track record of failing to play his best tennis in the biggest moments – he was too passive against Alcaraz in the Roland Garros final, which he led by two sets to one, and the problem returned against Taylor Fritz at both the US Open and the ATP Finals.
Still, it seems Zverev is still determined to find answers and it was notable that he recently spoke about how the biggest disappointment of his career was the French Open semi-final against Rafael Nadal in 2022. Had he won, he’d have stood on the cusp of becoming number one but instead he suffered a serious injury which ended his season and saw him tumble down the rankings.
Novak Djokovic is also above Zverev in the betting but he seems unlikely to play a full schedule and, in any case, bar the Olympics, was very much among the also-rans last season.
For me, Zverev is the value here.
Most aces
This market was last year’s hard-luck story.
Our pick, Hubert Hurkacz, led virtually the whole season but his Wimbledon injury led to missed tournaments and poorer results in the second half of the season and he was eventually overhauled by Alex Zverev in the final event of the campaign.
Zverev’s 797 aces came across 90 matches (8.86 per match). However, Hurkacz’s average was up at 12.69 and the Pole could challenge again this time around.
However, there’s a new kid on the block here in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and he’s rightly been chalked up as the favourite.
The Frenchman broke through at tour level largely thanks to his massive serve, a shot which produced 532 aces in just 28 matches – that’s a staggering average of 19 per match.
Barring injury, the 21-year-old, now ranked 31st, looks certain to play way more than 28 matches in 2025 and, if he does, that ace tally will surely rise too.
OK, some players will have started to get to know the delivery a bit better but there are still many others who have never faced it and its John Isner-esque qualities will baffle many, who simply won’t be able to get a racquet on the 140mph-plus bombs.
I was hoping the bookies might chalk him up at odds-against but we’re only getting a best of 7/10.
I know many won’t want to tie up their money for such a long time at those odds but it does look highly likely to come in.
To finish in the top 10
Arthur Fils was my ‘one to watch’ on this website last season and he didn’t disappoint, winning two ATP titles and climbing into the world’s top 20.
That easily landed our bet for him to finish in the top 35 and I feel he can go even higher in 2025.
For example, Fils won only five Grand Slam matches last season which shows the room for improvement there is – a deep run at one of the majors would have pushed him even further up the ranking list.
The youngest player in the top 40 is being guided by Sebastien Grosjean and former French Open champion Sergi Bruguera and I feel that if anyone is going to come up from below and push on into the top 10, then it may well be Fils.
He’s 14/5 for a top-10 finish which looks worth a small bet.
To finish in the top 30
The aforementioned Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ended 2024 ranked 31st.
Yet, Unibet and co have him at 4/5 to make any sort of ranking climb in 2025.
I’ve already pointed out how few matches he played at the top level last season, as well as mentioning how many tour players have yet to face his devilish serve – the second deliveries are huge too.
With that element of surprise still in his pocket, at least to some extent, the other rising French star should be able to push up into the top 30.
Yes, the rest of his game is still pretty limited but that was also the case with John Isner, who managed to utilise his serve to become a top-10 player.
I’m not saying a repeat is on – at least not at the moment – but don’t expect Mpetshi Perricard to hit the buffers just yet.
To finish in the top 70
I mentioned Learner Tien in my recent Next Gen ATP Finals preview but wasn’t brave enough to back him. That proved to be a bad decision as the long shot went on to reach the final.
He did beat top-50 stars Arthur Fils, Jakub Mensik and Alex Michelsen in Jeddah though, wins that show what he’s capable of going forward.
The American left-hander really tore it up on the Challenger Tour last season and while he lacks huge weapons in his shots, he has excellent return and retrieval skills which should cause plenty of problems for the ATP Tour’s lesser lights.
The initial problem for Tien is the fact he starts the year ranked only 122nd so he’ll need to climb higher before he’s automatically accepted into the Slams and Masters.
Still, if he picks a decent schedule, happy to go into qualifying draws and attack some of the weaker 250 events, I can see him doing just that.
A top-70 finish looks very possible, and I’d certainly rate his chances better than 2/1.
Posted at 0955 GMT on 23/12/24
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