Ahead of the start of the 2023 WTA season later this month, our tennis man Andy Schooler picks out his best bets from the season-long markets.
Tennis betting tips: WTA Tour 2023
0.5pt Aryna Sabalenka to finish as year-end world number one at 20/1 (bet365)
2pts Iga Swiatek to win at least two Grand Slam titles at 4/1 (betway)
2pts Barbora Krejcikova to finish in the top eight at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Amanda Anisimova to finish in the top eight at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Coco Gauff to finish in the top five at 6/4 (Unibet, BetUK)
5pts Barbora Krejcikova to finish in the top 15 at 4/5 (Unibet, BetUK)
5pts Caty McNally to finish in the top 100 at 1/2 (Unibet, BetUK)
Year-end number one
In women’s tennis, Iga Swiatek ‘won’ 2022 by a country mile.
Two Grand Slam titles helped her accumulate more than double the number of ranking points of her closest rival so it’s no surprise to see her heavily odds-on with most firms to see him keep hold of the top spot for another year.
Indeed, Betway may be taking a risk offering 4/6 in this market but that’s not a price I will be putting up here. Indeed, I have an alternative way of getting with the Pole (see below).
Back to the number one market and I prefer to take a punt on one of the underdogs – we’ve seen in the women’s game before how a fall from grace can be pretty sudden and it should be remembered that Swiatek’s dominance means she has a huge amount of points to defend.
A 37-match winning streak stretched from February to July last season and were that same period in 2023 to coincide with a rough spell from the 21-year-old then her huge rankings lead would soon become much smaller.
It’s worth considering ARYNA SABALENKA instead at 20/1.
She finished 2021 in second spot and ended last season fifth.
The latter figure came from a campaign which began poorly but finished well.
Sabalenka struggled with her serve early in the season, producing a ridiculous number of double faults, and spent some time fixing the problem.
However, as time wore on her game returned to levels previously seen and she finished the season by reaching the US Open semis and the title match at the WTA Finals.
After that defeat to Caroline Garcia, Sabalenka was already talking positively about 2023.
"At least going into the next season I don't have this stupid thing in my mind about my serve," she said. "I know I can serve, I know I can hit double faults, I can hit aces and it's not a big problem because I have a lot of weapons to play with. That's the great thing about this season."
Sabalenka will require greater consistency to land this bet; that is obvious.
And perhaps therein lies the problem – her aggressive, power-hitting style is always liable to go wrong at certain points.
That said, you do feel that if she can get into a winning groove then the confidence would flow, knowing she is capable of out-hitting virtually any opponent from the back of the court.
One point worth mentioning is that Sabalenka, as a Belarusian, was banned from Wimbledon in 2022 and there remains a chance that could be repeated.
However, the pressure from within tennis is well and truly on for that stance to change in 2023, a move which would see ranking points reinstated at the tournament.
Were the ban to be lifted, Sabalenka would be hopeful of racking up plenty of those points given her last visit to the All England Club resulted in a semi-final appearance.
Grand Slam titles
I’ve already looked at the Grand Slam ante-post markets in an earlier column, but with Iga Swiatek being the dominant figure in the women’s game heading into 2023, it’s certainly worth a look at the related markets surrounding her and the majors.
Sky Bet will give you 50/1 that the Pole wins the calendar-year Grand Slam, a feat last achieved by Steffi Graf in 1988.
It’s not hard to make a case for Swiatek at three of the four but the problem appears to be Wimbledon where she’s yet to go beyond the last 16; the grass simply doesn’t suit her game.
But for all I’ve written about Sabalenka above, I do still expect Swiatek to have a strong season – there’s no big reason to expect a slide.
And 4/1 about SWIATEK WINNING TWO OR MORE SLAMS has to be of interest.
It’s not difficult to envisage this being done by June with Swiatek clearly the player to beat on her favourite clay, a surface on which she stood head and shoulders above her rivals in 2022. Indeed, she’s already odds-on with most firms for Roland Garros.
And, barring something odd happening in the next few weeks, she’ll head into the Australian Open as a clear favourite too.
Swiatek made the semis in Melbourne last season (before her stunning win streak began) and she’s since won at the top level on hardcourts at the US Open.
To finish in the top eight
Sky Bet offer an interesting market on who will finish 2023 in the top eight which is essentially, though not technically, about which players will contest the season-ending WTA Finals.
With only five players odds-on, it’s a pretty open betting heat and there are a couple of players I like the look from a fair way down the market.
I’ll start with BARBORA KREJCIKOVA, a player I feel the layers are underestimating ahead of the new campaign.
The Czech may have finished 2022 in 22nd place in the WTA rankings but it should be remembered she sat second prior to an arm injury impacting her season in late February – she duly missed the next three months before rushing back to defend her Roland Garros crown, a decision which, to no-one’s surprise, backfired.
Basically she missed the claycourt season, potentially the most lucrative part of the year for Krejcikova, while there was also disappointment at Wimbledon and the US Open where early exits meant the only real impact she had at the Slams (which offer the most ranking points) came in January’s Australian Open where she made the last eight.
Clearly there’s room for big improvement from the former Slam champion, who also made the quarter-finals of the 2021 US Open.
She finished 2022 in fine fettle having won WTA titles indoors in Tallinn and Ostrava, with a notable upset of Swiatek coming in the final of the latter event. On the doubles court, she remained one of the best in the business – three Slam titles were collected alongside Katerina Siniakova in 2022.
For me, this is not a player who has fallen down the rankings never to return.
Krejcikova is where she is for a reason not really of her own making and given how she was playing towards the end of last term, I very much expect her to climb again in 2023 with 11/4 about a top-eight finish looking very tempting.
The 6/1 being dangled about AMANDA ANISIMOVA also looks a tad big.
For those who have already read my Grand Slams ante-post preview, I apologise for repeating myself but the young American looks likely to continue her rise in the coming 12 months.
At 17, she was a surprise semi-finalist at the 2019 French Open just a couple of months before her father died.
Understandably her progress stalled but 2022 showed Anisimova is very much back on the right track – there was a title in Melbourne followed by a last-16 appearance at the Australian Open and later in the year a quarter-final showing at Wimbledon.
A broken toe saw her season end at the US Open, denying her a shot at a top-20 finish, but one can be expected in 2023 – and perhaps more.
Particularly encouraging was her 2022 record against the elite – Anisimova held winning records against the top 10 (4-3) and the top 20 (9-8) to show that she can very much compete with those currently ranked above her.
I’ll take a punt on the 6/1.
To finish in the top five
The Kambi sportsbook, used by firms such as Unibet and BetUK, is offering a series of players to finish above a certain line in the rankings and a few make appeal.
First up, I’ll go with COCO GAUFF to finish in the top five.
Due to her early emergence, it’s easy to forget that the American is still only 18 but her age was no barrier to success in 2022 with the French Open final reached, as well as the last eight of the US Open.
Two WTA titles were claimed as Gauff became more tactically astute.
She actually cracked the top four in October before finishing the year in seventh place following a disappointing WTA Finals debut.
However, Gauff looks well placed to push on again in 2023 and there’s obviously potential for the teenager to increase her points tally.
A first-round exit at the Australian Open was suffered in 2022 so she has few early-season points to defend, while if her game is to continue to improve then more and bigger WTA titles look likely to arrive.
In short, I think 6/4 about a top-five finish for a player who is one of the genuine stars of the tour is worth backing.
To finish in the top 15
A similar bet comes in the top-15 bracket which is where BARBORA KREJCIKOVA looks a standout selection.
I won’t go over old ground – the reasons I expect Krejcikova to climb the rankings in 2023 have already been outlined above – but where 11/4 about a top-eight finish looks to have potential, I very much expect the 4/5 about a top-15 finish to land and therefore it gets the bigger stake.
To finish in the top 100
My final bet for the season is admittedly a short price but one which is surely still too big.
OK, there’s always the injury spanner which could be thrown in the works but if that isn’t a factor I don’t see CATY McNALLY finishing outside the top 100 and she’s worthy of support at 1/2.
Another rising American star, the 21-year-old finished last season in 92nd spot and a slip back seems unlikely.
McNally has been spoken about positively in US circles for some time but has been overshadowed by compatriots, such as the aforementioned Guaff.
Frankly that’s probably a good thing but she’s set to be come better known in 2023 after a decent end to 2022, which included a quarter-final battle with Iga Swiatek in Ostrava and a WTA 125 title in Midland.
She's done it again 🫢🌭@CatyMcNally 🤝 Tweeners#OstravaOpen pic.twitter.com/2j1VLe8yBe
— wta (@WTA) October 6, 2022
In a revealing interview on the WTA website recently, McNally spoke about how she had found things hard going in Covid ‘bubbles’ during 2021. There was also an admission that she hadn’t applied herself well in preparation for matches but that has now been resolved with notes taken on every opponent and a focused gameplan for each match.
Asked about goals for 2023, she said: "I want to break the top 50, maybe even higher. Especially going into the first half of the year with not many points to defend.
"Then also to win a couple of tournaments. I've won a 125 now but I want bigger and better things - winning a 250, a 500. I definitely think it's possible."
Clearly actions speak louder than words but I’d be very surprised were McNally not to be part of the top 100 in 12 months’ time.
Now read...
- 2023 tips: Women's Grand Slams
- 2023 tips: Men's Grand Slams
- Tennis news and previews
- More sports tips and content
Posted at 0940 GMT on 20/12/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
