Ahead of the start of the 2023 ATP Tour season later this month, our tennis man Andy Schooler picks out his best bets from the season-long markets.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour 2023
0.5pt Casper Ruud to finish as year-end number one at 25/1 (Unibet, BetUK)
1pt Casper Ruud to reach number one during the year at 4/1 (bet365)
3pts Andrey Rublev to finish in the top eight at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Denis Shapovalov to finish in the top eight at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Lorenzo Musetti to finish in the top eight at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
4pts Jack Draper to win an ATP title at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Hubert Hurkacz to serve the most aces at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Year-end number one
Always the most-talked about and most-prominent pre-season market, this was won by Carlos Alcaraz at a massive price in 2022.
As well as the young Spaniard played, there were some significant reasons – other than his brilliance – behind that result though.
Novak Djokovic didn’t play two of the four Grand Slams while the one he actually won (Wimbledon) he received no ranking points for.
In short, I’m pretty sure the Serb would have finished top again, rather than fifth, had things been ‘normal’.
Given how he played when he did take to the court in 2022 – as well as Wimbledon, he won the ATP Finals – it’s no surprise to see Djokovic as the favourite here.
He’s odds-on with several firms and Betway may be taking a risk by offering 6/4 about him nailing down the year-end number one spot for a record-extending eighth time.
However, as things stand, he remains unable to enter the United States, while it’s more than a possibility that Wimbledon is effectively forced to exclude Russians again – and that would likely lead to ranking points disappearing once more.
In short, the issues which dogged Djokovic in 2022 could again hinder him in 2023 and for that reason it’s worth looking at potential value elsewhere in this market.
Current rankings leader Alcaraz is a best price of 3/1 (Unibet) but while I’m still expecting good things of the US Open champion, his other Grand Slam performances were a little underwhelming, while he certainly struggled after that maiden Slam title and finished the season with an abdominal tear.
Had results gone against him at the season-ending ATP Finals, Alcaraz could have been usurped as number one and one of the men who had a shot at doing that in Turin was CASPER RUUD.
In the end, the Norwegian fell short – by 1,000 points to be precise – but I certainly don’t think he should be a 25/1 poke in this market.
Ruud reached two Grand Slam finals in 2023, at Roland Garros and the US Open, as he proved his ability on both clay and hardcourts.
He was also the runner-up at the ATP Finals and is a player who doesn’t seem to be getting the credit he deserves.
Of course, it’s a long shot but I don’t think it’s as long as the odds suggest that the current number three is able to bridge a 1,000-point gap and become top dog in 2023.
It’s also worth considering a related bet, namely bet365’s 4/1 that Ruud becomes number one at any point in 2023.
Having not played the Australian Open last season, Ruud has just 420 points to defend before Miami in mid-March (Alcaraz has 950) and the top ranking will be in play at the Australian Open.
If the chance isn’t taken there, then the claycourt season may well offer another opportunity.
While Ruud has big points to defend at Roland Garros having made the final in 2022, Alcaraz must first back up his title successes in Barcelona and Madrid.
To finish in the top eight
I always like this market which is essentially looking at who you think will qualify for the season-ending ATP Finals.
Five of this year’s field are odds-on for a return to Turin (Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, Ruud and Tsitsipas), as well as two who missed out through injury (Alcaraz and Zverev).
One of those who did play in those Finals is a decent-looking price for a repeat and that’s ANDREY RUBLEV.
The Russian has been in the top eight for all bar eight weeks of the last two years. He’ll subsequently be chasing his fourth consecutive top-eight finish in 2023.
While it’s fair to say he’s not been able to truly make his mark against the game’s elite – he’s yet to go beyond the quarter-finals of the Slams and a Masters 1000 title remains absent from his CV – Rublev has been very consistent and has regularly captured titles at a lower level.
Sky Bet’s market appears to rate him vulnerable to one or two of the so-called ‘Next Gen’ – the likes of Holger Rune, LORENZO MUSETTI and Jack Draper can all expected to improve over the next 12 months – yet I’m unconvinced that Rublev should be 7/4 to do something he’s managed three years in a row.
He’s a player with power that belies his frame and it’s more than possible he’s able to get more out his game in the forthcoming campaign, rather than slip backwards. After all, he is still only 25.
As for longer shots, the two I like the look of are the aforementioned Musetti and DENIS SHAPOVALOV.
I’ve not given up on Shapovalov, a player who cracked the top 10 in 2020, just yet and he could be worth a punt at 11/2.
Shapovalov finished 2022 by helping Canada win the Davis Cup (I might as well mention here that I tipped them to do so at 33/1!) and we’ve seen in the past how that has proved a solid foundation for greater things – think Novak Djokovic in 2011 and Andy Murray in 2016. Both ended the year as world number one.
That won’t be happening with Shapovalov but a top-eight finish is hardly out of the question.
The Davis Cup Finals were part of a strong end-of-season run from ‘Shapo’, who finished runner-up in Seoul and Vienna and was also a semi-finalist in Tokyo, and if he brings that form to the early part of 2023 then he’ll be in with a shout.
A player who can deliver on all surfaces, Shapovalov will need to correct his poor title-winning record if he’s to deliver on this bet (he’s just 1-5 in tour-level finals) but having seen compatriot Felix Auger-Aliassime put an even worse record to one side in 2022, perhaps he can use that as a motivating factor and make a similar breakthrough.
As for Musetti, as already pointed out, he’s part of a band of young guns taking aim at those higher up the rankings.
The Italian is another being spurred on by compatriots – Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner are both currently above him in the list – and he certainly developed last season, capturing two ATP titles, one on clay and the other on hard.
Perhaps the faster surfaces will prove the 20-year-old’s undoing but I’m expecting more from the current world number 23 and 14/1 about him making the top eight looks on the generous side.
To win an ATP title
This is the market where I’m going to back JACK DRAPER, who I mentioned above and have already waxed lyrical about in my 2023 Grand Slams ante-post preview.
The Briton enjoyed a spectacular maiden campaign on the ATP Tour in 2022 with a slew of high-profile wins.
Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz were among Draper’s victims as he went 19-14 at tour level – few manage that so early in their career.
When I talk about his maiden campaign, I should point out that Draper spent most of the first half of the year playing on the Challenger Tour so 2023 will be his first full season at the top level.
Expect it to reap dividends for his backers.
In total, 2022 saw Draper contest 14 events on the main ATP Tour and he reached two semi-finals and two other quarter-finals.
Going a couple of steps further at some stage this year looks within his capabilities.
A big lefty serve and forehand are significant weapons that have already troubled many and I’m happy to get involved with the 6/4 on offer that ATP title number one is added to his CV in 2023.
A couple of alternative ways of backing Draper are also worth a mention – Unibet go 29/20 about him finishing in the top 25, while Sky Bet are at 13/8 about a top-20 finish – but I expect him to be lifting silverware.
To serve the most aces
This is an interesting market which, when you think it through, could throw up a big-priced winner.
2022 winner John Isner is again the favourite – his average of 22.4 aces per match was way above anyone else and he duly won despite playing only 40 matches.
That’s clearly a concern for those who look elsewhere but Isner hasn’t played 50 matches in a season since 2018 and he may well struggle to replicate last season’s tally.
The American is now 37 and doesn’t seem that likely to make many trips outside his homeland – he’s rarely enjoyed great success overseas and now has three children.
There’s also the potential for wrist problems – Isner required surgery after breaking the joint at this year’s US Open and that’s an injury no tennis player wants, especially an ageing one who slams the ball down at 140mph-plus and also relies heavily on his hard-hit forehand.
So, instead of backing Isner at 2/1 (and I’m sure some will), I’m looking for alternatives.
Nick Kyrgios is certainly one. He averaged an impressive 15.9 aces per match – that’s bigger than three of the four players who served more aces than him in 2022.
The problem with backing the Aussie is the same though: will someone who gets notoriously homesick, not to mention somewhat ambivalent towards tennis at times, play enough matches?
If he commits, as he seemed to for most of the second half of last season, then it’s more than possible he lands the 6/1 here.
However, relying on Kyrgios producing a positive mindset for the best part of 12 months hasn’t been a wise move over the years and so my preference it to back HUBERT HURKACZ at 14/1.
Hurkacz finished third in this market in 2022, hitting 827 aces (68 fewer than Isner) in 62 matches at an average of 13.3.
Had the Pole enjoyed a good Wimbledon, as many had expected, he may well have won this market. Instead, he lost in the first round to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on a final-set tie-break.
Given his ranking of 10th, Hurkacz should play more matches than most of his market rivals. One of those, last year’s runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime, seems unlikely to contest a whopping 81 this time around which would dent his chances. For record, FAA can be backed at 20/1.
Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of things which could go awry here but you could certainly get a run for your money backing Hurkacz at 14s.
Now read...
- 2023 tips: Women's Grand Slams
- 2023 tips: Men's Grand Slams
- WTA specials and prop bets
- Tennis news and previews
- More sports tips and content
Posted at 1035 GMT on 22/12/22
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