The men's singles final at Flushing Meadow has much in common with the women's final - a legend of the sport with many major titles under the belt faces the latest challenger from the next generation, making their first Grand Slam final appearance,.
Daniil Medvedev has been the player of the summer hardcourt season with an intimidating 20-2 record. Those defeats were in the first two tournaments of the run, losing in Washington to Nick Kyrgios and then to today's opponent in Montreal, both times in the final.
Since that disappointing Canadian Sunday in early August, the Russian has won 12 matches on the trot.
In that Montreal match, Medvedev was flat and lifeless, most likely attributable to playing ten matches in 12 days. With no rest days between matches on the regular tour, any injury niggles build up rapidly and exhaustion becomes a factor - particularly when the weather is constantly hot and humid.
Rafael Nadal came fresh into that event and had the benefit of a walkover in the semi-final so it's understandable they were at opposite ends of the fatigue spectrum.
Can that be overturned today though? This is Rafa's next most successful of the Slams, a long way from his 117* French Open titles (we've all lost count by now) but with three in the bag, he truly loves New York.
Against Matteo Berrettini in the semi-final, he was solid but not great. He didn't face a single break point and generated 16 of his own, converting just four, but those figures aren't surprising, the Italian's fortunes are heavily based around his serve.
Nadal's stats for the tournament are slightly better than Medvedev's across the key categories - service hold %, first serve points won, winners per game and errors per game.
Remarkably, neither player has had to beat anyone inside the current top 20 to reach this final, although Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka (versus Medvedev) plus Marin Cilic (v Nadal) have all peaked at #3 during their careers, so it wasn't exactly a cakewalk for either finalist.
There's no denying Nadal is the more likely player to win this match but I think his price is awful. Medvedev will put up a much stronger fight than in Montreal. He is feeling the effects of so many matches this summer but his condition hasn't declined in the last few rounds, it has probably improved.
I did consider one of the Request-A-Bet Specials, Nadal to lose the first set and win the match at 11/2, but in his 46 Grand Slam and Masters Series title wins, not once has he ever done that. Instead all the chips go onto Medvedev for the win, I'm confident we will see a much better performance than in their recent clash, making 9/2 an attractive price.
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