Recommended bets
1.5pts tie-break in Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem at 11/10
0.5pt first-set score 7-6 (any player) in Nadal v Thiem at 3/1
1.5pts Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Andrey Rublev at 17/20
0.5pt Tsitsipas to beat Rublev 2-0 at 11/5
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Andrey Rublev (2000 GMT)
Tsitsipas wasn’t too far away from beating Thiem in his opening match but missed opportunities on key points cost him. He admitted as much afterwards when he cut a downbeat figure.
The same could be said of Rublev during his match with Nadal – his body language smacked of a beaten man once he fell behind.
The Russian was well beaten but I didn’t think he played that badly. He struggled to find first serves in the early stages but he picked up after that and certainly in the second set he won plenty of free points on his own delivery.
The second serve remains attackable though and something Tsitsipas will surely look to target.
I felt Rublev’s post-match comments said much. He spoke of being nervous and having a lack of experience against the best players. He’s clearly going to get more this week so will need to learn on the job.
A 2-2 tour-level record against Tsitsipas (1-1 this season) should give him some hope ahead of this match but I keep coming back to Sunday’s performances and the Greek certainly looked the better player.
Based on that, I’m surprised to see him available at 17/20.
While their previous matches have usually been tight, Tsitsipas dominated their most recent meeting at Roland Garros, winning in straight sets.
With Rublev seemingly on a bit of a downer, that may hold more sway than it should.
So as well as backing Tsitsipas to win the match, it might also be worthwhile siding with him to win 2-0 at 2/1 or bigger – Sky Bet offer 9/4 via their Price Boost scheme and anything around the 2/1 mark looks decent.
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem (1400 GMT)
Looking to win this title for the first time, Nadal made an impressive start to his campaign on Sunday by easing past Andrey Rublev.
He looked much more comfortable with the indoor conditions than many – including myself – expected. His serve was a notable feature – it had a bit of extra pace on it and Rublev failed to create a single break point.
That may well be needed here against Thiem, who beat Nadal on a hardcourt at this year’s Australian Open. Their other meeting on the hard surface came at the 2018 US Open when Nadal won in a final-set tie-break.
Thiem wasn’t at is brilliant best in his opener but he still played well as he edged out Stefanos Tsitsipas. He also served well, losing it just the once. He only broke once too.
That’s a nod to where the best bet may lie here.
Expect serve to hold sway for much of the contest and tie-breaks may well come into play.
Five of the last six sets these two have played on a hardcourt have gone the distance. This will be their first indoor meeting but that should help the server, taking out any weather distractions.
With the contest having every chance of going three sets, the best tie-break value is the odds-against about there being at least one in the match.
Quotes of 3/1 about a first-set tie-break also look very tempting.
Posted at 1640 GMT on 16/11/20
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