ATP Cup tennis free betting preview and tips from Andy Schooler

Tennis betting tips: ATP Cup

2pts win Spain at 3/1

0.5pts e.w. Canada at 28/1

1pt Italy to win Group C at 5/2

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ATP Cup

• Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

After much controversy and at significant cost to the organisers, the Australian swing of the tennis season is, finally, about to get under way.

The ATP Cup should have been the tour’s first event back in early January. COVID-19 has seen it reduced in size – there are only 12 teams involved instead of the planned 24 – but many of the biggest stars of the men’s game will take to the courts of the Rod Laver Arena and the John Cain Arena at Melbourne Park in the coming days.

Just how they perform is very much open to question.

Most of them will be playing their first matches since November and there has never been a lead-in to a season like this.

Upon arrival in Australia, players had to quarantine in a hotel for two weeks. Most were allowed out for five hours a day to practise, train and eat. But the unlucky ones were confined to their rooms for a full 14 days.

Then there is the looming Australian Open to consider – it starts next week.

We’ve seen in the past how some players have been reluctant to push themselves to the limit in the week before a Slam. Given the disrupted preparation, that is an even bigger factor this year.

This will be the second staging of the ATP Cup. Last year’s was widely regarded as a success with concerns about players holding a little back for the bigger tournament to come proving unfounded.

However, in 2020 the competitors all knew there was a week’s break between the two events. This time that gap is just two days.

In short, there are plenty of potential pitfalls for punters but also potential opportunities.

Here’s my look at the 12 teams…

GROUP A

Serbia (best title odds: 5/1; best group odds: 6/5)

Team: Novak Djokovic, Dusan Lajovic, Filip Krajinovic, Nikola Cacic

With the world number one Djokovic among their number, the defending champions will be hard to beat – as long as he’s fit. That’s a worry after Djokovic only briefly appeared in an exhibition event in Adelaide on Friday – the 33-year-old had been due to play two full sets but blistering on his hand prevented more than a handful of games. If that continues to be an issue (the man himself insists it isn’t), Djokovic certainly won’t want to be pushing through singles and doubles for five days in a row, so backing the Serbs looks risky business at this stage, particularly in what is a tough group. That said, with Lajovic and Krajinovic both in their team, Serbia are not without hope of winning ties without their talisman.

Germany (title: 18/1; group: 7/2)

Team: Alex Zverev, Jan-Lennard Struff, Kevin Krawietz, Andreas Mies

The Germans have picked a specialist doubles team in Krawietz and Mies, the reigning French Open champions, and will be hoping their regular partnership is able to topple any scratch ones involving a star singles player. If main singles man Zverev, the US Open runner-up, fires, they should be a match for anyone in this group. A top-40 player, Jan-Lennard Struff, provides Zverev with decent support.

Canada (title: 28/1; group: 11/4)

Team: Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic, Peter Polansky, Steven Diez

Canada boast the highest-ranked ‘number two’ in this group in Milos Raonic (he is he third highest across all 12 teams). The big server is a player who has often started the season well Down Under, winning the title in Brisbane in 2016, while he’s been a regular in the latter stages of the Australian Open, held at this venue. Raonic should be confident of winning his two singles matches. Denis Shapovalov is their number one so if he can nick a win or two, they will be in business. Shapovalov is no mean doubles player either – he’s ranked in the top 50 – but if Canada want to win the trophy, he’ll likely need Raonic to be on double duty too as the rest of the team looks very lightweight.

GROUP B

Spain (title: 3/1; group: 2/5)

Team: Rafael Nadal, Roberto Bautista Agut, Marcel Granollers, Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain look to have the greatest depth of any team in the competition with three members of the world’s top 16 in singles, plus the world number 11 in doubles (Granollers). It is largely the team which won the 2019 Davis Cup and finished runners-up in this event last year. With such depth, Nadal will be able to opt out of certain matches if he wants to – Spain should still be able to progress out of this group. Last year, Nadal played plenty of doubles, something which would appear less likely this time around, but Carrno Busta is more than capable of forming a decent pairing with Granollers. Worthy favourites and should at least reach the final.

Greece (title: 150/1; group: 20/1)

Team: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Michail Pervolarakis, Markos Kalovelonis, Petros Tsitsipas

The one-man team in this year’s competition. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the world number six these days; none of his team-mates is ranked inside the top 450. Even if the more famous Tsitsipas plays doubles, it’s hard to see the Greeks winning two rubbers in any of their ties. They are 150/1 for a reason.

Australia (title: 20/1; group: 3/1)

Team: Alex de Minaur, John Millman, John Peers, Luke Saville

The lack of quarantine for their players is the big plus for Australia’s chances – their training regime has been relatively normal. The problem is this isn’t their strongest team, with Nick Kyrigos absent. Alex de Minaur is a good player but asking hm to beat Nadal and Tsitsipas is a big ask. John Millman backs ‘Demon’ up in singles but the hosts will likely have to rely on their doubles if they are to get out of this group. John Peers and Luke Saville are both inside the top 40 in that format but they aren’t regular doubles partners. Despite some significant home advantage, it’s hard to see the Aussies finishing above Spain.

GROUP C

Austria (title: 50/1; group: 7/4)

Team: Dominic Thiem, Dennis Novak, Philipp Oswald, Tristan-Samuel Weissborn

I’m struggling to see why Austria are favourites in this group. Yes, they have the US Open champion, Thiem, in their side and he is more than capable of winning all of his singles matches in the competition. Yet the support looks weak. Only Greece have a lower-ranked second singles player, while even their doubles star, Oswald, is one of those just out of hard quarantine. In short, they look worth taking on.

Italy (title: 33/1; group: 5/2)

Team: Matteo Berrettini, Fabio Fognini, Simone Bolelli, Andrea Vavassori

Both Berrettini and Fognini are top-20 singles players capable of winning rubbers in this group. Significantly both have already played competitive tennis this season in Antalya, although admittedly neither made a big impact on the tournament. It’s also worth noting that Fognini and Bolelli have enjoyed great success in doubles in the past, winning the Australian Open title together. Even Vavassori made the semis of the doubles in Antalya. It’s hard to see them going all the way but Italy may well be able to get out of this group.

France (title: 20/1; group: 9/4)

Team: Gael Monfils, Benoit Paire, Nicolas Mahut, Edouard Roger-Vasselin

A nation long known for its strength in depth in this sport, France will again have a decent team on show. Gael Monfils is another player who has often started a season well – six of his 10 ATP titles have come in January or February. However, Paire is another hard-quarantiner, and one who isn’t the most mentally stable at the best of times. That is a worry. France will hope Mahut and Roger-Vasselin use their doubles expertise to strong effect – both are in the world’s top 15 – but they also hoped that last year and the duo lost all three rubbers. Certainly a possible alternative to Austria though.

GROUP D

Russia (title: 21/10; group: 1/3)

Team: Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Aslan Karatsev, Evgeny Donskoy

This is the only team with two top-10 singles players, hence they are favourites with the bookies. The plan will be for Medvedev and Rublev to win every singles match they play but with little in reserve there doesn’t look much room for error. The task will also become more difficult if they have to face Djokovic’s Serbia in the semis or Nadal’s Spain in the final. Definitely contenders but little value in the price.

Argentina (title: 50/1; group: 7/1)

Team: Diego Schwartzman, Guido Pella, Horacio Zeballos, Maximo Gonzalez

Hardly a bad team, one boasting a top-10 singles player (Schwartzman) and the world doubles number three (Zeballos). But when you consider Schwartzman and Pella are due to face Medvedev and Rublev respectively, you see how hard it’s going to be for the Argentines to progress. To make things harder still, Pella is one of the players who has just spent 14 days entirely inside his hotel room. Not the best preparation, it’s fair to say.

Japan (title: 100/1; group: 9/1)

Team: Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka, Ben McLachlan, Toshihide Matsui

Only here due to Nishikori’s protected ranking, Japan look very much up against it. Their injury-prone star man hasn’t played since Roland Garros in September and he’s also been among the hard quarantine bunch. It’s hardly ideal that his first two matches back will both be against top-10 players. Nishioka may also struggle in this company. McLachlan and Matsui do at least bring doubles experience – they went 1-1 as a pair in the competition last season – but it would be a huge surprise to see Japan in the last four.

VERDICT

There are few weaknesses in the SPAIN team and in many ways it’s surprising for them not to be favourites.

Nadal and Bautista Agut will both be hard to beat in singles, while the Spaniards also have a strong back-up in Carreno Busta. In addition, their doubles options are strong, especially if Nadal chooses to put his name forward.

My main worry would be if they face Serbia in a rematch of last year’s final. Djokovic has long held the upper hand over Nadal on hardcourts and that showed 13 months ago.

Yet even if Djokovic is fully fit, I can see the holders being troubled in their group and with the Russians likely semi-final opponents, Serbia are far from certain to make the final.

Spain, on the other hand, have a pretty easy group and would start firm favourites in the last four against whichever team comes out of Group C.

For those seeking a tasty price, CANADA may be worth a small each-way punt.

Shapovalov gave everything for his country at the 2019 Davis Cup, playing singles and doubles to great effect and helping his team to the final.

He has arguably stronger support this time with Milos Raonic in the team and the Canadian number two has a good track record in Australia.

They wouldn’t be without a chance against Russia, whose doubles options look limited, in the semis.

Finally, ITALY look worth chancing to win what promises to be a competitive Group C.

Favourites Austria look too reliant on Thiem and Italy have strong singles players in Berrettini and Fognini, plus potential in doubles.

5/2 to win the group looks good enough to get involved with.

Published at 1130 GMT on 31/01/21

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