ATP Tour tennis free betting previews and tips for the Sofia Open

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Vasek Pospisil at 16/1

0.5pt e.w. Egor Gerasimov at 80/1

Sofia Open

• Sofia, Bulgaria (indoor hard)

The Sofia Open will provide a somewhat low-key finish to the regular ATP Tour season.

It’s basically a final chance in 2020 for many players to compete, at least at the top level, with only next week’s season-ending ATP Finals, featuring the world’s top eight, to come.

That looming event means this tournament is a Sunday to Saturday one, wrapping up in time for the ATP Finals to start next Sunday.

Organisers must have hoped the race for places in that field would have still been alive heading into this week. Alas, Diego Schwartzman sealed the final berth on Friday and within minutes both he and Pablo Carreno Busta announced their withdrawals from Sofia.

They weren’t the first (or last) to do so and a tournament which had an original entry cut-off of 35 in the rankings now extends all the way down to 100.

There are still some good players entered but only three of the top 30 are here, led by world number 12 Denis Shapovalov, the 9/2 favourite.

He does have the big-serving game which has succeeded here in the past.

Mirza Basic was a surprise winner in 2017, while last season Daniil Medvedev used his delivery well to claim the title.

On each occasion, the tournament was staged in February. It had been initially been due to be held in September this year before Covid-19 got involved.

The Proflex court surface isn’t actually the quickest but there’s quite a bit of altitude in the Bulgarian capital – they play at around 600m above sea level.

That will speed things up, helping the ball fly through the air, and some will find controlling it difficult.

There aren’t too many players with notable altitude records in the field.

Both Roberto Carballes Baena and Andrej Martin do have some form in the thinner air. However, those efforts have been largely on clay and with neither possessing good indoor history, I can’t be getting with either outsider.

That bottom half is led by second seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who played well at the two indoor events in Cologne last month. However, back-to-back defeats in Vienna and Paris mean he’s now lost three in a row. He looks short enough at 5/1.

Instead I’m going to take a chance on the man who beat FAA in Vienna, his compatriot VASEK POSPISIL.

I did pick him in St Petersburg at the start of the current indoor campaign but the Canadian was well beaten by eventual champion Andrey Rublev.

That was hardly a disgrace, especially given what Rublev has done since, and he quickly picked up. After beating Auger-Aliassime in Vienna he then pushed Medvedev to three sets in the following round.

In Paris, he came through qualifying but then lost a tight one to Marton Fucsovics.

At 16/1, I think there have been enough signs to suggest he could win in a much weaker field such as this.

Conditions here will favour his strong first serve and it was that delivery which earned him plenty of wins indoors in the autumn of 2019 and also the start of 2020.

He’ll open against a qualifier and will then, if he wins, face fourth seed Jan-Lennard Struff.

The German has been struggling for form though, going 2-4 indoors in recent weeks, his only wins coming against Nikoloz Basilashvili, a player who has now lost nine on the spin, and Marco Cecchinato, who spends virtually all year on clay.

Recent Astana champion John Millman would likely be a tough test in the quarter-finals – the Aussie holds good claims himself at 22/1 – but with Pospisil having won their only previous indoor hardcourt match at the end of last season, I’m happy to stick with a player who has proven himself indoors.

Back in the top half, I’ll swerve Shapovalov, who has had a shoulder problem in recent weeks. He was very disappointing in Cologne.

Alex de Minaur, the recent runner-up in Antwerp when we bagged a 20/1 winner with Ugo Humbert, was very much on my shortlist.

He also tested eventual finalist Medvedev over three sets in Paris last week.

However, I wanted more than the 5/1 on offer, especially given he may have to get past Jannik Sinner and Shapovalov to even make the final.

For all his talent, Sinner is another who frankly looks too short.

The layers have long since cottoned onto his ability and at 7/1 here, there’s no value, particularly given the Italian was last seen quitting his quarter-final in Vienna due to a foot injury.

The value in this section looks to be held by Adrian Mannarino and EGOR GERASIMOV, again proven indoor performers.

Mannarino was the runner-up in Astana, while he’s also pushed Alex Zverev the distance twice during this indoor swing.

He’s always a tough opponent in fairly quick indoor conditions and I’m sure he’ll be well backed at 20/1.

The Frenchman could face Gerasimov in round two so I can’t back them both and I’ve decided, after much internal debate, to back the Belarusian again.

He has featured on these pages in recent times, making the coupon in both Cologne II and Astana at tasty prices.

Gerasimov certainly showed why I’d picked him but on both occasions he got jittery and blew his chance.

He served for the match against second seed Auger-Aliassime at the former event before losing 7-6 in the third and at the latter he led another seed, this time Frances Tiafoe, 4-3 with a break in the decider only to lose 7-5.

That mental side of his game is definitely a worry and almost put me off backing him again, but he’s a whopping 80/1 in what is a pretty weak field and that simply can’t be right.

He has the game to play well indoors with his serve a decent weapon which will win him plenty of free points in these conditions.

Maybe this is the week he’ll put it all together. I’ll try a small play in a bid to find out.

Posted at 2100 GMT on 07/11/20

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