Andy Schooler has made a profit on five of the last six days at the French Open – here’s his verdict on Tuesday’s two mouthwatering men’s quarter-finals.
Recommended bets
1.5pts Dominic Thiem (-3.5) to beat Diego Schwartzman on the game handicap at 4/5
1pt Thiem to serve the most double faults in the first set v Schwartzman at 4/1
1.5pts Over 28.5 games in Jannik Sinner v Rafael Nadal at 9/10
Dominic Thiem v Diego Schwartzman
Followers of my outright preview will know this match stands between Schwartzman and a payout for winning the quarter.
Unfortunately the man seeded to face him in the last eight has made it this far so the Argentine starts as the underdog at around 7/4 with most firms.
He’s certainly not without a chance, particularly given Thiem’s five-set struggle in the last round against French wild card Hugo Gaston.
Schwartzman will look to drag Thiem around the court in the same way Gaston did, at least at times, and he does have the game to do so.
This is a player who beat Rafael Nadal last month and he’ll certainly be ready to go into the trenches and play the lengthy rallies. It could be a long day.
Still, Thiem’s power – greater than Nadal’s – could well hold the key here. Even in the slow conditions we’ve had in Paris, he should have the ability to hit winners and break Schwartzman’s defence.
His serve is also much the stronger and while Schwartzman will undoubtedly enjoy success on it – he’s one of the best returners on the ATP Tour – it’s a positive for Thiem.
Perhaps more importantly, the Austrian looks likely to get stuck into the Schwartzman serve a lot.
He does offer up a lot of break-point opportunities and most opponents usually take a few.
History shows Thiem will profit in this department – their four previous claycourt matches have all seen Schwartzman’s serve broken at least six times. And they were all best-of-three encounters.
Three of those four matches have been won by Thiem (across all surfaces he’s up 6-2) and I’d expect him to claim another here.
Schwartzman is playing well and is yet to drop a set in Paris but the big weapons here appear to be on his opponent’s side of the net.
A 3-1 victory at 16/5 looks interesting for those seeking a tasty price but I’m happier to play the -3.5 game handicap.
Thiem is 4/5 to cover it and looks capable.
Five of the pair’s nine sets played on clay have been won either 6-2 or 6-3 by Thiem and if he’s producing something similar here then even if Schwartzman does claim a set – more than possible – he should still beat the line.
A second option in this match comes in the sub-markets where this column enjoyed success in Monday’s Djokovic-Khachanov match.
It was aces on that occasion; this time it’s double faults.
Thiem is out at 13/2 to serve the most double faults.
That looks a tad large given he’s done it in two of their eight meetings, including one on clay. Another on this surface ended in a tie.
However, it’s the first-set double faults I prefer to bet on with Thiem 4/1 to serve the most in the opener.
Given the historical data, he’s clearly not nailed on to produce the most DFs. Schwartzman is favourite for a reason – another is the fact he’s served 12 at this event to six by Thiem – but a deeper look over the past week or so throws up some interesting info.
Four of Thiem’s six (67%) have come in first set of his matches. Only four of Schwarztman’s 12 (33%) have come that early.
As was the case on Monday, the market looks too lop-sided and Thiem to serve the most double faults in the first set looks a spot of value and worth a punt.
Jannik Sinner v Rafael Nadal
Both men’s quarter-finals on Tuesday promise much and this second one is hugely intriguing.
How will the leader of the so-called NextGen perform against the King of Clay, the greatest who has ever held a racquet?
It would take a brave man to back the teenager to win the match – he’s around the 10/1 mark – but I do feel he’s capable of making a contest of this.
No-one else has got near Nadal so far this tournament – he’s lost only 23 games across the first four rounds – and he has dealt with the slower conditions at this year’s event well.
That said, who has he actually played thus far? His highest-ranked foe has been the world number 74, Stefano Travaglia, while two opponents haven’t even been part of the top 200.
At the age of 19, Sinner is at 75th in the ranking list but every pundit in the game will tell you he’s going much higher, potentially all the way to the top.
He beat sixth seed Alex Zverev last time out to continue a good start to his career against the game’s elite. He’s already beaten three top-20 players and is 2-2 against top-10ers.
Unlike so many who bear the scars of previous Nadal matches (this meeting will be their first), I expect he’ll come in with a winning attitude.
He has the power in his groundstrokes to push Nadal back and is prepared to go for the lines. He’ll need to – and execute well – but I stand by my pre-tournament verdict that Nadal is more vulnerable in these conditions and for the first time at Roland Garros 2020 he faces a player capable of testing him.
The fact the match is scheduled last of five on Court Philippe Chatrier means it will be held in the evening – another factor which should help Sinner. The court and balls will pick up more moisture in the damp night air, making it more difficult for Nadal to get purchase on his top-spun forehand.
Also, if it rains – and plenty is forecast on Tuesday - the roof will be closed and Nadal’s indoor record suggests that would also work in Sinner’s favour. The Italian won the ATP NextGen Finals last year indoors (albeit on a hardcourt) and served very well that week in Milan.
Essentially, I believe Sinner will test Nadal and in terms of a bet feel he can take this match beyond 28.5 games which is on offer at 9/10.
Posted at 2125 BST on 05/10/20
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