Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s action at the US Open with French duo Gilles Simon and Caroline Garcia both carrying upset potential.
Gilles Simon v Taylor Fritz
Simon breezed through his first-round match in New York and looks to have a decent chance of pulling off the upset in this one.
A semi-finalist in Marseille earlier this season, Simon continued his decent run during lockdown, winning two domestic events. In France, were there is great depth, that means more than in many countries.
He doesn’t mind fast conditions (some of the quickest are found in Marseille) and won’t be unduly worried by Fritz’s big serve.
The American is hardly the most consistent and it should be remembered that he lost to Aljaz Bedene, a player not dis-similar to Simon, in Western and Southern Open qualifying last week.
Fritz needed four sets to beat Dominik Koepfer on Monday and lost his only previous meeting with Simon, albeit that was on a claycourt.
In short, Simon looks worth a small play at the price.
Jordan Thompson v Egor Gerasimov
I like the look of a first-set tie-break in this one, something being offered at 11/4.
Both men have strong serves and pretty weak return games – as the stats show.
Over the past year on hardcourts at tour level, Thompson has won 84% of his service games and won only 15% on return.
Gerasimov has held 87% of the time and broken just 14%.
Tie-breaks have been a regular occurrence in the Belarusian’s matches – 10 of his last 16 have featured one with the first set going the distance on five occasions.
The equivalent stats for Thompson are six of 11 with three in coming in first sets, although it is notable that two of those came in the slick conditions of New York’s indoor event in February.
This contest is sure to be on the outside courts which have been playing quick.
Throw in the fact that the pair have never met before so won’t be familiar with each other’s serve and the 11/4 looks too big.
Angelique Kerber v Anna-Lena Friedsam
Kerber has won all four sets these two have previously played and another straight-sets success beckons here.
The 2016 champion is buoyant at the moment having put early-season injury behind her and linked up again with coach Torben Beltz, the man who helped her to the title here four years ago.
Both players eased through their first-round matches, although some context is required here with Friedsam beating a wild card, Caroline Dolehide.
That was actually only her second tour-level win on an outdoor hardcourt since the start of 2019.
She’s now up against a player of much higher quality and one who knows her game well – the pair have been team-mates in the German Fed Cup team.
Karolina Pliskova v Caroline Garcia
Up against the world number 145, Pliskova had few problems in her first-round match but she looks sure to get a greater test here.
Garcia is a former top-10 player and one who has regularly caused Pliskova problems in the past.
Their career head-to-head is locked at 3-3 (2-2 on a hardcourt) with Garcia winning their last meeting in Tianjin in 2018.
All their meetings have been close-fought affairs with three going the distance.
Pliskova’s form has been unconvincing either side of lockdown and her victory on Monday was just her third in her last seven matches.
She lost to Veronika Kudermetova in New York last week and Garcia should fancy her chances of an upset with Pliskova’s big serve unlikely to be helped by whichever stadium court this one is scheduled for – both have played slower than their outside counterparts.
Preview posted at 2020 BST (01/09/20)
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