Rafael Nadal offers surprising value at 11/4 to win the Monte Carlo Masters title as he pursues two more pieces of history this week.
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Rafael Nadal can become the first player ever to win an event on 10 occasions and, in the process, move clear of Guillermo Vilas as the player with the most clay-court titles at the Monte Carlo Masters.
However, Nadal is still not considered the outright favourite, despite this season’s star Roger Federer being absent and wide-ranging questions over his other two main rivals.
Two-time winner Novak Djokovic, who is in the same half of the draw as Nadal, sits level at the top of the market as he returns following an elbow injury, having won titles just twice since landing his maiden French Open crown last June.
Top seed Andy Murray benefits from avoiding Nadal in the draw but still offers little appeal at 4/1 to lift the Monte Carlo trophy for a first time, having posted a modest 14-8 record here.
There are also more question marks over the Scot’s condition than Djokovic, having sat out the Davis Cup action while the Serb led his country to victory.
The pair suffered early exits in Indian Wells and their new career targets and respective physical conditions make them opposable as the European clay swing kicks off.
Seven of the top 10 are present but the new-found consistency of Nadal makes me snub the temptation to go for a long-priced outsider.
Stan Wawrinka is the only player other than Nadal or Djokovic to win this event since 2004, but that previous triumph results in little value for the Swiss, with a top price of 7/1, also with Stan James.
Dominic Thiem, who has won six clay-court titles since the start of 2015, will tempt some at 33/1 given his prowess on the red dirt, but a first-round loss to Borna Coric in Indian Wells hardly suggests he’s ready to land a first Masters crown.
Nadal, on the other hand, has been showing all the signs of being close to top form and fitness, but has avoided the headlines due to Federer’s remarkable resurgence.
Indeed, by reaching the final at the Australian Open and the Miami Masters, he has performed better than par for his career, having previously claimed a solitary title from the two events on his less-favoured surface.
Back on the clay his record is simply phenomenal and to not be considered clear favourite is a rare gift to punters from the bookies.
Posted at 1715 BST on 16/04/17
