ATP free betting previews and tips for the 2020 Paris Masters

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini at 16/1

1pt e.w. Borna Coric at 80/1

0.5pt e.w. Dan Evans at 50/1

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Rolex Paris Masters

• Paris, France (indoor hard)

Whether you consider the ‘Big Four’ a thing any more or not, you can’t argue they have left some legacy.

These ATP Masters events have long been dominated by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray – between them they have won 109 of the last 137.

However, throughout that era, Paris has by far been the tournament most likely to provide an upset and with only one of the famous quartet in attendance this year, the chance of a decent-priced winner is strong.

Only seven of the last 15 Paris Masters have been won by a member of the Big Four and Djokovic is largely responsible for that ratio not being even lower.

Last season’s triumph at the Bercy Arena was his fifth at the tournament but the world number one isn’t here this year, opting instead to rest up ahead of the season-ending ATP Finals which take place later this month.

In his absence, Rafael Nadal heads the field but he looks a rather unconvincing favourite, especially at around 11/5. Despite all his success across the city at Roland Garros, Nadal has never won indoors in Paris.

He’s often failed to show, playing the event just seven times. On the last two occasions, he’s withdrawn mid-way through with injuries taking their toll after a long season.

The amount of tennis in 2020 hasn’t been an issue and with the Spaniard having always made the quarter-finals in the years that he has played, Nadal certainly will have his backers this week.

However, indoor hardcourts have never been his domain – he’s never won the ATP Finals either – and the speedy surface here will hardly aid his chances.

Nadal plays here after a three-week break which followed his latest Roland Garros success so he arrives with no indoor matchplay under his belt.

A tricky draw (below) which sees him likely start against the 2017 runner-up Filip Krajinovic throws up further doubts.

In contrast, many of his title rivals are already bedded in on the surface. Take Alex Zverev and Andrey Rublev, both possible semi-final opponents for Nadal.

Since the French Open ended, Zverev has won back-to-back titles in Cologne, while Rublev triumphed in St Petersburg and again on Sunday in the Vienna final.

I’m still not completely convinced by Zverev, whose personal life has been brought into full focus in the last week. That has to be a concern.

Rublev, a 12/1 winner for us last week, looks a more likely champion. He is in great nick, not dropping serve during his title run in Austria, but my worry with him is the amount of tennis in his legs.

With his spot at the ATP Finals now guaranteed, does the Russian really want another full week of tennis with that trip to London looming?

Instead I’m going to take a chance on a couple of long shots, starting with BORNA CORIC.

The Croat is one of those who has proved himself indoors over the past few weeks and with this being his last tournament of the year, he looks sure to be giving his all.

The 15th seed was runner-up in St Petersburg last month and also played well in Vienna where he held four set points in the first set against Djokovic before losing 7-6 6-3.

Coric could meet Nadal in round three and it’s notable that their head-to-head stands at 2-2, the Croat winning their only meeting on indoor hard.

At 80/1, Coric has potential.

In the second quarter, I’m going to take on Rublev and Zverev with a small-stakes play on Briton DAN EVANS.

He’s arrives in the French capital having made back-to-back semi-finals in Antwerp and Vienna where he added more impressive scalps to his ever-improving list.

He beat Grigor Dimitrov and Karen Khachanov in that period and should also have defeated Antwerp champion Ugo Humbert, against whom he held match points. Evans also blew match point against Stan Wawrinka in St Petersburg.

He’s now beaten no fewer than seven top-20 opponents in 2020 and a good week here can take him to a new career-high ranking.

With his accurate slice and propensity to come forward, Evans’ game should be well suited to the slick courts of Bercy.

Evans faces a rematch with Wawrinka in round one but should be better suited to conditions here than in Russia. It’s interesting that he’s also caused Rublev plenty of problems in the past – he leads their head-to-head 2-1 (all matches this season) ahead of a possible last-16 clash.

At 50/1, Evans looks worth chancing.

The bottom half is led by Stefanos Tsitsipas who didn’t impress in Vienna, his first indoor hardcourt event of the autumn. He needed three sets to beat Jan-Lennard Struff before losing to Dimitrov.

The Greek could meet the in-form Humbert in his opener here, while Felix Auger-Aliassime is another form player who could prove very tricky to overcome in the last 16.

Daniil Medvedev is the other high seed in this section but, as I’ve mentioned over the past few weeks on these pages, he’s struggling for form and a quarter-final loss in Vienna to Kevin Anderson means he’s now won only four of his last 13 matches indoors.

There are two players with strong motivation in this half, namely Diego Schwartzman and MATTEO BERRETTINI.

Both are still hopeful of reaching those ATP Finals and in reality it’s likely going to be a straight battle between the pair for the last place in the elite field.

Schwartzman looks to have a good draw – he’s in the third quarter with Medvedev – but it’s probably going to be too fast for the Argentine this week.

However, Berrettini has proven he’s an all-court performer and his big serve and forehand are strong weapons to bring here.

A title winner on grass, Berrettini won’t mind the slick courts and while he’s admittedly not got a great record indoors, I still feel he has the game to perform well in such conditions.

He’ll need to reach the final if he’s to make London and so expect strong focus from the Italian.

Milos Raonic is a possible early threat, although the Canadian was last seen limping out of Antwerp and I wonder how much he’ll be wanting to push his ailing body during what will be the final week of his campaign.

Berrettini would then meet the winner of that Tsitsipas/Auger-Aliassime section in the last eight.

This certainly doesn’t look the strongest half of a Masters draw I’ve ever seen and so I’ll take a small slice of the 16/1 on offer about him emerging as this event’s latest surprise champion.