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Miami Open betting tips: Goffin to shine
After a near miss in Indian Wells, our tennis tipster Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the Miami Open.
Recommended bets: Miami Open
1pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov at 16/1 - another flying in 2017; strong chance with top two both out
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The last six editions of the Miami Open have been won by either Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic but neither will be lifting this year’s trophy - both men are out due to elbow injuries.
Their absence leaves Roger Federer as the only former champion in the field and it’s no surprise to see the Swiss chalked up as favourite after his stunning start to the season continued in Indian Wells last week.
However, there are reasons to take Federer on in Miami (more on those later) and there looks to be every chance of an outsider elbowing his way into the final mix. See what I did there?
I certainly felt my approach of taking on the big guns in Indian Wells was justified by how things panned out and, as suggested in that preview, it looks a tactic worth prevailing with at the Masters 1000 tournaments, certainly for now.
Jack Sock was among my selections in California and it was disappointing, if rather predictable, to see the 150/1 shot beaten by Federer in the semis.
Sock is into 40s ahead of Wednesday’s opening matches at Crandon Park and I’m going to use him as an example of the sort of player you should look to take on in the expected conditions.
It’s always hot and very humid at this time of year in Miami, conditions which fluff the balls up and slow them down. That’s in contrast to Indian Wells where the balls fly through the desert air and bounce high.
The big servers don’t tend to get as much joy here where the Laykold surface isn’t particularly quick either.
Sock is one such big server but he’s also a fairly big man and like many who have to carry a large frame around, his record in the humidity isn’t good. After a tough week or so in Indian Wells, where he had to play four three-setters, this isn’t the week for him.
Juan Martin Del Potro is another who fits that bracket. His form isn’t bad – his only defeats of 2017 have come at the hands of Novak Djokovic (twice in three-set matches) and Milos Raonic – and he’s consistently troubled potential third-round foe Federer with their last seven matches all going the distance (he’s won three).
However, just one semi-final appearance here (eight years ago) helps prove that conditions are far from ideal for the Argentine and I can’t be tempted in by odds of 20/1.
I’m also happy to take on Federer in the top half despite him playing some majestic tennis in the opening months of the campaign.
His ability to glide around the court is in contrast to the stomping of the larger Del Potro but these are conditions which could see his Indian Wells efforts (which came in hotter than average temperatures) catch up with him at the age of 35.
It’s notable that he’s not made the Miami final since 2006, as is the fact he’s opted not to play here in the past. When you throw in injuries, he’s only played the event once since 2012. I’ll swerve at 7/2.
Stan Wawrinka is actually the top seed but the Indian Wells runner-up holds a 7-8 losing record in Miami where he’s never been past the last 16 – again a larger frame could be deemed a hindrance.
You could take the Swiss duo on with Nick Kyrgios, who has clearly played some of his best tennis in the last few weeks which have brought back-to-back wins over Djokovic, but I’d want an awful lot more than 14/1 before getting involved with a player who is yet to prove his mental game has improved on any kind of consistent basis. Don’t forget he followed his first victory over Djokovic by losing to Sam Querrey in Acapulco.
Others to consider are Roberto Bautista Agut and Tomas Berdych, both at 40/1. However, RBA – another of my picks in Indian Wells – may still be troubled by abdominal issue which forced his withdrawal in California, while Berdych, who has often gone well here, doesn’t look in any sort of form having lost to Robin Haase and Yoshihito Nishioka in his last two events.
Instead my picks in the top half are David Goffin and Dominic Thiem.
Goffin, Wawrinka’s seeded quarter-final foe, made the semis here 12 months ago and shouldn’t be too concerned about the conditions.
If the surface and balls negate the big server that’s all fine with the Belgian who is happy to run all day at the baseline and chases down balls for fun.
In fact, he’ll be pleased to have put the higher bouncing conditions of Acapulco and Indian Wells behind him (he suffered early exits at both venues).
Put aside those results and Goffin’s season has gone very well. He made the last eight at the Australian Open and finished runner-up in Sofia and Rotterdam.
He’s exactly the sort of player who could get under Kyrgios’ skin should they meet in the last 16 and at 45/1 (BetVictor) is worth a punt.
Thiem, a quarter-finalist here in 2015, is a player who always raises concerns with his hectic schedule.
However, after some iffy displays during February, the Austrian looked much more engaged in Indian Wells where he was only beaten by Wawrinka in a final-set tie-break.
Thiem hits the ball seriously hard off the forehand wing so will be able to hit winners despite the conditions.
He looks fairly well drawn with Berdych his scheduled last-16 foe and, as already explained, it’s far from certain that Federer will be waiting in the quarter-finals.
At 28/1 (Stan James), he’s worth a go to small stakes.
Down in the bottom half, the prices suggest it will be Rafael Nadal who gets to the final but while he’s consistently reached the latter stages in Miami, it is noteworthy that this is one of only three Masters 1000 tournaments he has never won.
As you’ll know from watching him on clay, Nadal’s vicious spin works less well when the balls are heavy and damp and while they won’t be playing in drizzle in Miami, there’s no doubt the balls won’t complement his game.
Kei Nishikori is offered at 15/2 and looks a more viable alternative.
He’s gone RU-QF-SF in the last three years here and given he’s based himself in Florida since his teenage years, that is perhaps not surprising.
The Japanese is definitely a player able to grind out points as you often have to here and he’s also been handed an attractive draw with the struggling Marin Cilic the next highest seed in his quarter.
My worry with backing Nishikori at such a price is he was very up and down during his Indian Wells quarter-final with Sock, while his injury record isn’t great either.
I’m therefore tempted to back Fernando Verdasco in this section at a whopping 125/1 with Coral and BetStars.
Twice a quarter-finalist here, the Spaniard has been very up and down this season but in his good weeks he’s looked like the top-10 player he once was.
Those weeks both came in the Middle East, in Doha and Dubai, and he made the semis of the former and final of the latter. Four top-20 players were beaten during those events, while he held a series of match points against Djokovic before losing in Doha.
In terms of his Miami record, Verdasco has beaten plenty of good players here in the past, including Nadal, Cilic and Andy Roddick (all were ranked in the top 10 at the time).
If he can bring his A-game, the draw means he’s got a real chance.
The one stumbling block appears to be Nishikori but the Spaniard has a 2-2 head-to-head record against him and while the Japanese has won the last two both of those meetings have gone to a final set.
At 125/1, he’s worth a go.
Finally, this week looks a good time to turn back to Grigor Dimitrov, a winner for this column in Sofia last month.
The Bulgarian has enjoyed a fine season so far, one highlighted by his Australian Open semi-final run where he wasn’t far away from defeating Nadal.
He was even closer to taking out Sock in Indian Wells last week but blew four match points.
However, he showed there that his form is still decent and now he heads to a venue where last season he defeated Murray with a fine performance en route to the last 16.
Dimitrov has not been beyond that stage in Miami before but there’s little doubt he’s playing the best tennis of his career presently.
After his Melbourne efforts, he won’t fear a last-16 meeting with Nadal, while his seeded quarter-final opponent, Milos Raonic, hasn’t played for a month due to a hamstring problem and was also beaten by the Bulgarian during his title run in Brisbane in January.
At 16/1 (general), Dimitrov completes a fairly long staking plan but one which again has potential to produce a winner at a tasty price.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1645 GMT on 21/03/17.