Free tennis betting tips: Men's Australian Open outright preview

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open, men's outright

2pts Daniil Medvedev to win the title at 5/1

0.5pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini to win the title at 100/1 (1/2 1,2)

0.5pt Novak Djokovic to win the title without losing a set at 28/1

0.5pt Pablo Carreno Busta to win the second quarter at 20/1

Australian Open

• Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

It’s fair to say that much has changed since the last staging of the Australian Open but one thing that hasn’t is the look of the men’s singles market.

Thirteen months on from the 2020 edition, Novak Djokovic is once again in the position of title favourite.

That’s fair enough. After all, he’s won in Melbourne on a record eight occasions.

Yet at a best price of 11/8, I’m not convinced he should be so much shorter than some of his title rivals.

That price isn’t hugely different to the one he went off at last year but there was evidence at the end of 2020 that the younger contenders are getting ever closer to the long-standing world number one.

Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem both beat Djokovic at the season-ending ATP Finals in London and that duo will be among those lining up to dethrone the Serb in Melbourne.

Many more – probably more than usual – will harbour hopes of landing the title this year.

That’s due to the unique circumstances which have preceded the first Grand Slam tournament of 2021.

A two-week period of hotel quarantine for all bar a few Australians has seen virtually everyone’s preparation disrupted. Most got five hours each day to practise and train in the gym but those less fortunate had to ‘hard quarantine’ - 24 hours a day inside their room.

At risk of repeating myself, I won’t go into all the details of this again – if you want to read up on it, I write more on this in last week’s ATP Cup preview – but suffice to say, such a lead-in to a best-of-five-sets tournament isn’t exactly ideal.

The Australian Open has always been a tough call for punters given its place in the calendar – it normally occupies the third and fourth weeks of the season.

But this year’s build-up, which has seen the quarantine period followed by just one week of warm-up events, has made things even tougher.

Whatever the circumstances, Djokovic is still the man to beat and I’ll stick with an opinion I’ve used plenty of times in the past – if he plays his best tennis, he’ll win.

Following an injury scare regarding blisters on his hand, the 33-year-old looked in good enough shape in this week’s matches at the ATP Cup and that part of his preparation could hardly have gone better.

Facing tough opponents in his first matches of the year, Djokovic disposed of Denis Shapovalov in straight sets and Alex Zverev in three.

Serbia didn’t qualify for the semi-finals, allowing Djokovic a few days off before the main show begins.

However, as I’ve already suggested, I’m not keen on backing him at a short price in this of all years.

What I would say though is that bet365’s 28/1 quote about DJOKOVIC WINNING THE TITLE WITHOUT LOSING A SET a set is way too big.

OK, none of Djokovic’s 17 Grand Slam titles has been won in this fashion but of the four venues, this is his favourite and he’s twice won in Melbourne losing only one set en route (in 2008 and 2011).

More recently he dropped two sets when winning in 2019, while it was three last year, including two in the final against Thiem.

Coral go just 8/1 about this which looks much more like it.

At the bigger price, I can’t resist a small play.

Djokovic heads up the top half of the draw and is seeded to face Thiem in the semis but it’s the bottom section which interests me much more.

That’s where both my main title tip and a big-priced outsider reside and a large factor in that is this is the section of Rafael Nadal.

The Spaniard will set a new record of 21 Grand Slam men’s singles titles if he wins what would be only his second Australian Open crown but the chances of that don’t look great.

Nadal surprisingly sat out all of this week’s matches at the ATP Cup event meaning he’s not played competitively since November’s ATP Finals where he lost to Medvedev in the last four.

A back injury has been cited with little being given away by the Spanish camp.

While it’s easy to suggest that Nadal simply wasn’t keen on playing too much tennis in the week before a Slam – the top players rarely compete so close to a major – it’s hard to imagine he wanted to come into the event completely cold.

In short, there’s something not right about Nadal and given this is his least successful Grand Slam tournament, he looks ripe for taking on.

DANIIL MEDVEDEV is the man to oppose him with.

The Russian ended 2020 in scintillating fashion, beating the world’s top three of Djokovic, Nadal and Thiem en route to that ATP Finals crown.

Crucially he’s been able to pick up where he left off, catching the eye in this week’s ATP Cup.

Medvedev has fallen at the last-16 stage in Melbourne in each of the past two years but losing to Djokovic in four sets in 2019 was hardly a disgrace, while he was a fourth-set tie-break away from beating Stan Wawrinka last year before losing in five.

It should also be remembered Medvedev has already overcome a significant mental hurdle at the Slams – he made the US Open final in 2019 before losing in five sets to Nadal.

The draw has helped his cause too. Not only has he avoided Djokovic (a player he’s actually beaten in three of their last four meetings) but he’s also in a good-looking third quarter with David Goffin his scheduled last-16 foe and compatriot Andrey Rublev a potential quarter-final opponent.

Rublev is getting better all the time and will likely contend for these titles soon. I certainly considered his chances at 22s – he’s also looked very impressive so far this week – but he came up short against the elite at the ATP Finals, while his record against Medvedev leaves a lot to be desired. The elder statesman is 3-0 up in their head-to-head series and is yet to lose a set.

Medvedev has all the tools to do well here. A strong first serve looks unreturnable when on song, while his big groundstrokes are complemented by great feel – the world number four is very adept at mixing things up and not allowing his opponent to get into a rhythm.

The advice is to back him at 5/1 or the more widely available 9/2.

In the fourth quarter, Stefanos Tsitsipas is definitely a good alternative option in terms of opposing Nadal.

The Greek famously beat Federer here a couple of years ago when he made the semis, a run he repeated at last year’s French Open when he pushed Djokovic to a fifth set.

Tsitsipas was quickly back in the groove in Melbourne with wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Alex de Minaur earlier this week and may go well at 18/1.

Still, at more than five times the price, I prefer to take a chance on MATTEO BERRETTINI.

The big-hitting Italian is another to have hit the ground running in Melbourne, demolishing Thiem at the ATP Cup and helping Italy reach the final.

The Greenset courts, first introduced at Melbourne Park for last year’s tournament, are playing a bit quicker than they did last year, according to many players, and that should help Berrettini, whose first serve is a major weapon.

His forehand is another and when his game is in good working order, he’s very difficult to stop.

Admittedly, Berrettini, who made the last four of the 2019 US Open, does face a testing draw.

First-round foe Kevin Anderson is a tricky opener but Berrettini leads potential third-round opponent Karen Khachanov 3-0 on their head-to-head, while his two defeats to Tsitsipas, who he could face in the last eight, have both been very tight.

The Australian Open has a long history of producing surprise finalists and given all the uncertainties surrounding the 2021 edition, it looks worth backing a long shot and at 100/1 Berrettini gets that vote.

Finally, I’ll take another punt in the second quarter where PABLO CARRENO BUSTA looks tasty at 20/1.

While PCB was the big beneficiary of Djokovic’s famous default at last season’s US Open, it should not be forgotten how well he played in New York where he got within a set of reaching the final.

He followed that effort up with a strong end to 2020, making the quarter-finals of both the French Open and the Paris Masters where it took Djokovic and Nadal respectively to halt his run. On both occasions he won a set.

Denis Shapovalov, Bautista Agut and Gael Monfils were among his victims during that period so I feel the 20/1 quote is a bit lumpy.

Thiem is the obvious favourite in this section – he’s odds-on in places – but the way in which he was out-hit by Berrettini in their ATP Cup clash will be a worry to some.

Long-term readers will know I backed Thiem to win last year’s US Open after a similarly-worrying pre-event loss but in New York the showcourts played significantly slower than the outside courts at Flushing Meadows which aided the Austrian.

He’s improved dramatically on hardcourts over the past couple of years but I still feel he’s vulnerable in quick conditions and so I’m happy to take him on here.

Again, stakes will be small – with so many unknowns, the outrights aren’t making huge appeal. I’d prefer to keep some of the bank back for the actual matches – I’ll be providing daily tips during the tournament with my first such preview being published once the order of play is released on Sunday

Posted 0855 GMT on 06/02/21

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.