Free tennis betting tips: Women's Australian Open outright preview

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open, women's outright

2pts Garbine Muguruza to win the title at 12/1

1pt Serena Williams to win the title at 11/1

1pt e.w. Danielle Collins to win the title at 80/1

0.5pt e.w. Jennifer Brady to win the title at 40/1

Australian Open

• Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

The women’s Grand Slams have been much more open than their male counterparts for some time now but I still can’t remember an event where so many players can be considered potential champions.

The open nature is summed up by the fact it’s 6/1 the field with the favourite being Naomi Osaka, the reigning US Open champion and the 2019 winner in Melbourne.

Cases can be made for many, many more, but it’s also worth noting the many pitfalls facing punters coming into the year’s opening Grand Slam.

The truncated 2020 season meant many of these players finished last year in late September/early October, only returning to action this past week. That’s a much longer off-season than usual, one which could clearly bring benefits to some but also disrupt others.

Then there’s been the much-talked-about issue of quarantine which virtually every player had to go through.

It was straight to a hotel for two weeks after flying into Melbourne. Most were allowed five hours a day outside to practise on court and train in the gym but a significant minority were forced to isolate 24 hours a day in their hotel room.

Those players included Bianca Andreescu and Victoria Azarenka, both of whom occupy slots in the top 10 of the outright market.

The risk of injury for these players has certainly increased due to that period of inactivity (well, aside from bashing balls against their propped-up mattress or a spot of ‘air tennis’) and they appear to be at a significant disadvantage.

Notably, Andreescu withdrew prior to her scheduled warm-up tournament this past week, while Azarenka played only one match before quitting.

And it’s not as if injury problems have been reserved for these ‘hard quarantiners’.

Osaka and SERENA WILLIAMS were others to withdraw midway through this week’s WTA tournaments with niggles, although one suspects both cases came about with the player concerned about too much tennis ahead of the two-week battle to come.

Another significant factor for punters to consider is the draw, which looks somewhat lopsided.

Five of the top six in the betting (and seven of the top 10) have been placed in the bottom half, including Osaka, Williams, second seed Simona Halep and Aryna Sabalanka, whose 15-match winning streak was only snapped earlier this week.

Seven-time champion Williams hasn’t been available at 11/1 to win a hardcourt title too often over the years and it’s a price I’m finding hard to ignore.

The American remains driven by her quest to equal Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles, something she will achieve if she triumphs in Melbourne.

It’s now four years since her last success at this level but she’s been close, losing in a final on no fewer than four occasions, including twice on a hardcourt at the US Open.

With several players reporting court conditions have quickened up a bit since last year, Williams’ power game should be well served here.

I also like the fact that she’s shown on many occasions in the past how she can come in with next to no match practice and still win at this level. I therefore doubt the quarantine procedure will have hit her as hard as some of her peers.

I’ve written in the past about how she has appeared weighed down by her record chase but the price is now big enough to tempt me in.

The fact she’s undergone quarantine with her young daughter shows just how motivated she is right now – reports suggest Roger Federer wasn’t too keen on doing likewise with his family – and 11/1 about a proven winner looks worthy of support.

That said, my main tip for the title still lies elsewhere.

GARBINE MUGURUZA has been a real eyecatcher during the past week in Melbourne as she stormed through the draw of the Yarra Valley Classic to reach the final.

Most impressive was her 6-2 6-2 demolition of reigning Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in the quarter-finals.

In total, she lost just 10 games in four matches en route to a final clash with world number one Ash Barty, due to take place after this preview was written.

Muguruza was the runner-up to Kenin in Melbourne last year so she’s clearly loving these Greenset hardcourts and the quicker conditions only appear to have aided her powerful game.

It should be remembered she’s a former Wimbledon champion so the ball coming through faster should not be a concern.

Indeed, Andy Murray’s former coach Mark Petchey, now a well-regarded TV pundit, said these were “nirvana conditions” for the Spaniard.

Yes, her price has contracted during this week’s run but there still looks to be juice left in it at 12/1.

Given what I’ve said about the bottom-heavy nature of the draw, it clearly makes sense to look for some value on the top side and that’s where a couple of Americans make appeal at chunky prices.

First up is 80/1 shot DANIELLE COLLINS, who has enjoyed Australia in the past couple of years.

It was at Melbourne Park where she made her big breakthrough in 2019 with a surprise run to the semi-finals which included victory over second seed Angie Kerber.

Last year she made the quarter-finals in Brisbane and last four in Adelaide with some dominant displays. At the latter event, she only lost in a final-set tie-break to eventual champion Barty.

She’s started 2021 in a similar vein, winning her opening three matches at the Yarra Valley Classic in straight sets, including victory over Karolina Pliskova, who she could meet in round two this week.

Collins’ run eventually ended at the hands of Williams in a match tie-break but her renowned competitiveness was again on show in that contest and a few days off before this tournament gets under way is arguably a good thing.

For my final bet, I’m going to take a risk by picking one of those who had to endure the hard quarantine process, namely JENNIFER BRADY.

I was very impressed by her ball-striking at last year’s US Open where she demolished all-comers until running into eventual champion Osaka in the semis. Brady still put up a great fight but lost one of the matches of the year in a third set.

She ended 2020 with another semi-final appearance in Ostrava and despite her disrupted preparation for the Australian swing, she’s shown over the past week that her A-game is still a very potent one.

Brady has won three Grampians Trophy matches in straight sets at time of writing with another to come on Sunday.

The quicker conditions will aid her thumping serve which did so much damage in New York last season.

Expect the serve-forehand combination to win plenty of points and while the backhand is attackable, I wonder how many opponents will be able to do so in this fourth quarter of the draw, one which doesn’t look the strongest.

It’s the section of Kenin and perennial Grand Slam underachiever Elina Svitolina, plus Azarenka.

Others I considered here include Briton Johanna Konta, who has performed well in the country of her birth in the past, and the in-form Maria Sakkari.

However, Brady’s efforts of the past few days have convinced me to back her, albeit to small stakes.

Posted 1145 GMT on 06/02/21

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