Laver Cup betting tips: Tennis preview and best bets for team event

Tennis betting tips: Laver Cup

1pt Andrey Rublev top overall pointscorer at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Felix Auger-Aliassime top Team World pointscorer at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

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Laver Cup

• Vancouver, Canada (indoor hard)

Six years after it was first held, the Laver Cup is entering a new phase.

It is essentially Roger Federer’s baby – his Team8 management group is involved in its organisation – and this will be the first edition of the ‘Europe v Rest of the World’ competition since the Swiss maestro retired.

How much will interest wane?

The 2023 edition takes place in Vancouver where Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime will be the big draw but none of the ‘Big Four’ – all of whom played last year in London – will be in attendance.

Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev also turned down the chance to play, while Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas have withdrawn due to injury.

Only three of the world’s top 10 remain and that can’t really be the scenario Federer had in mind when he set up the ‘Ryder Cup of tennis’.

Still, it is what it is, and there should still be some exciting tennis on offer, albeit questions remain about how much it really means to those involved.

This year we have a Laver Cup first with Team World going off favourites. They lifted the trophy for the first time last year.

However, other aspects remain familiar, including the scoring system and the Haro-Rebound Ace court surface (in trademark black).

Let’s take a closer look ahead of the event, which gets under way at 2100 BST on Friday…

How does it work?

The teams contest 12 rubbers over three days.

Each day features three singles matches and one doubles.

It’s one point for a win on Friday, two points for Saturday victories and three points for matches won on the final day, Sunday. It’s a controversial system but one that ensures the outcome can only be decided on day three (hence the reason for it being used).

There are certain restrictions on who captains Bjorn Borg (Europe) and John McEnroe (World) can pick for the rubbers from their six-man teams.

Every player must play singles on either day one or two, a rule which usually results in the three weakest singles players being picked on Friday, leaving the better ones to compete for double the number of points the next day.

A player can therefore play a maximum of two singles matches across the event.

There is no such maximum for doubles, although no pairing can play more than once and four of the six team members must play in this format across the three days.

The winning team is the first to reach 13 points. If the final score is 12-12, then the trophy will be decided by an ‘overtime decider’ doubles set.

Team Europe

Andrey Rublev (6)

Laver Cup win-loss: 3-0 (singles 1-0, doubles 2-0); Points won: 6 out of 6 (singles 1/1, doubles 5/5)

Banned from Davis Cup due to his Russian nationality, Rublev will be the highest-ranked player in this year’s Laver Cup – in both singles and doubles. Looks to be a key man for Europe, for whom he top-scored in 2021.

Casper Ruud (9)

Laver Cup win-loss: 2-0 (singles 2-0, doubles 0-0); Points won: 2 out of 2 (singles 2/2, doubles 0/0)

Unbeaten in last year’s Laver Cup but plays here with five different team-mates. Disappointed during the North American hardcourt season and hasn’t played since losing in the second round of the US Open. Did make the final of last season’s ATP Finals indoors though.

Hubert Hurkacz (16)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

One of four Europeans making their Laver Cup debut in Vancouver. Hurkacz has already been back out after the US Open, posting an easy Davis Cup win over Barbados’ unranked Kaipo Marshall. That was outdoors in Poland though so a quick transition will be needed.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (25)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

Came into the team only this week in place of the injured Holger Rune. Has enjoyed a decent year though, making the semis of the Canadian Masters in Toronto, and was playing indoors last week in Davis Cup. May well be trusted by captain Borg.

Arthur Fils (44)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

The French teenager, a rising star on the ATP Tour, is a late replacement for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Impressed indoors towards the start of the season and played Davis Cup in similar conditions last week.

Gael Monfils (142)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

French showman who may well thrive in what is usually a relaxed team atmosphere. Has slipped down the rankings following injury absence but has been playing well on the hardcourts in the past couple of months.

Summary

Europe have two top-10 players (World have only one) but they lack the depth of their opponents.

Every World player in the singles top 21 but only three of the Europeans are.

Rublev looks a key man here. He stepped up to the plate for his team two years ago, winning six points in Europe’s victory in Boston.

Notably, he’s a very good doubles player – he won the Masters 1000 title in Madrid with Karen Khachanov this season and claimed mixed gold at the Tokyo Olympics – so expect him to be busy, as long as his body allows.

The other selections seem likely to be based largely on how players have gone in practice with Ruud and Hurkacz hardly having sparkling form.

Team World

Taylor Fritz (8)

Laver Cup win-loss: 2-1 (singles 2-1, doubles 0-0); Points won: 5 out of 6 (singles 5/6, doubles 0/0)

Brings good to form from the North American hardcourt season during which he won in Atlanta and made the last eight of the US Open, losing only to eventual champion Novak Djokovic. Doesn’t have the greatest indoor record but a run to the semis of last year’s ATP Finals will have raised confidence on that front.

Frances Tiafoe (11)

Laver Cup win-loss: 2-2 (singles 1-2, doubles 1-0); Points won: 4 out of 7 (singles 3/6, doubles 1/1)

Won the decisive point in Team World’s maiden victory 12 months ago but, after a good US Open, Tiafoe disappointed indoors in Davis Cup last week, going 0-2 in Croatia before missing USA’s final tie. Captain McEnroe will need to trust his ability to shine on the big stage.

Tommy Paul (13)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

Another who flopped on Davis Cup duty last week, losing both rubbers indoors in Split. Has played better than that for most of 2023 though, while his sole ATP title to date came indoors.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (14)

Laver Cup win-loss: 2-2 (singles 1-2, doubles 1-0); Points won: 6 out of 9 (singles 3/6, doubles 3/3)

Claimed a big win in last year’s Laver Cup, beating Novak Djokovic, and likely to play a big role in front of his home crowd. In particular, he’ll likely be a man McEnroe turns to in doubles – FAA won three doubles rubbers at last year’s Davis Cup Finals when Canada emerged as champions.

Ben Shelton (19)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

In fine form having just reached the US Open semi-finals – his first such Grand Slam run. Big serve should get some cut-through on this court. Is also World’s only top-100 doubles player so expect to see him in that format at least once.

Francisco Cerundolo (21)

Laver Cup win-loss: 0-0 (debut)

South Americans have been bit-part players in Laver Cup over the years, largely due to the fact it’s an indoor hardcourt event. Like so many of his continental peers, Cerundolo prefers the clay – indeed he was playing on it in Argentina as recently as Saturday. Could well be limited to one singles appearance.

Summary

Team World have plenty of strength in depth with all six team members in the world’s top 21 in singles.

They are also the home side this year, although only one Canadian – Auger-Aliassime – will play in front of his own supporters.

They won the trophy 12 months ago and are arguably stronger this time around. However, one area in which they look weaker is doubles where Jack Sock, a Laver Cup stalwart, doesn’t play this time around.

In his four Laver Cups, Sock played in all three doubles rubbers – and when he wasn’t involved in 2021, World lost 14-1.

He’s been McEnroe’s go-to man in this competition for some time but now the captain must find new solutions with Auger-Aliassime and Shelton likely to have parts to play.

Previous tournaments and trends

• Europe have won four of the five previous Laver Cups, Team World winning for the first time last year.
• The scorelines, most recent first, have been: 13-8, 14-1, 13-11, 13-8 and 15-9.
• The 2017 and 2019 events were both decided in the 12th and final rubber. In 2018 and 2022, victory was sealed with one rubber to spare with the only real blowout occurring in 2021 when three rubbers went unplayed.
• Team World have never led after day one, losing the opening day 3-1 on four occasions and drawing 2-2 last season.
• Europe have led after the second day’s play at all five previous editions.
• World have won only one of the 15 ‘days’ – last year’s third - losing nine.
• The event’s top pointscorer has finished with six points on four occasions and seven on the other.
• The top pointscorer has always played at least three rubbers – three on three occasions and four on the other two.

Best bets

I’ve long felt the format of having the same number of points up for grabs on the final day as the first two combined means the underdog always holds a chance better than their actual odds and this year is no exception.

Team Europe start as the 2/1 outsiders in 2023 and that’s certainly tempting.

ANDREY RUBLEV is the best player in the event and he’ll draw on a positive experience of 2021.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Gael Monfils play on the final day given they’ve both been in decent form of late.

Indoor conditions aren’t ideal for the US contingent on the World side – I’d much prefer their chances in an outdoor tussle – while the hosts will need to find doubles combinations that work as they’ve often relied on Jack Sock’s expertise in the past and he’s no longer there.

Still, Europe aren’t obviously strong in that area either so perhaps the outright market is one to leave alone with preference for the pointscorer markets.

On Team Europe, Rublev looks the right favourite to top-score, just as he did at the 2021 edition.

He’ll almost certainly play singles on Saturday and Sunday, while he’ll surely play doubles more than once too (he’s already down for Friday duty).

History suggests the overall top pointscorer will need at least six but Rublev will likely compete for more than that so a good week from him could well deliver the 5/1. I’ll take a nibble on that.

As for Team World, Taylor Fritz is the man to beat according to the bookies, who have the American as favourite for top overall pointscorer.

However, at almost twice the price, FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME looks worth an interest.

OK, he’s been chosen for singles on Friday so won’t compete for two points on Saturday’s singles but a win over Gael Monfils may well push him into Sunday’s line-up.

I’d also expect him to play doubles on Saturday so he should have chances to claim the points he needs.

At 9/2, FAA is worth a try.

Posted at 2045 BST on 21/09/23

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