Our Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the ATP BNP Paribas Open which gets under way in Indian Wells on Thursday.
Recommended bets: BNP Paribas Open
0.5pt e.w. Jack Sock to win at 150/1 – another with the game which appeals in the desert
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I’ll start this preview with an old favourite of mine from the stats list - 56 of the last 61 Masters 1000 titles have been won by members of the game’s so-called Big Four.
But, as we head into the first of this year’s Masters events in Indian Wells, there is plenty to suggest that the era of dominance is coming to an end.
Yes, 30-somethings Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal did contest the one big final of the year so far, the Australian Open, but that event also saw first-week losses for the world’s top two of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic against players you would never have had down for a potential upset, namely Mischa Zverev and Denis Istomin.
Last week provided another example of how the power may be shifting in the game with Federer upset by world number 116 Evgeny Donskoy in Dubai, while the action in Acapulco saw Djokovic’s hopes blasted away by Nick Kyrgios and Nadal upset in the final by Sam Querrey.
While you can say these were small (500-level) tournaments, there’s no getting away from the fact that these are surprising outcomes which have resulted in some big-priced winners for those brave enough to oppose, either in match markets or the outrights.
For me, it makes sound sense to oppose the big guns in Indian Wells too where the Big Four are once again the top four in the betting.
And there are more reasons for doing so than simply the opening two months of 2017.
Djokovic’s dip in form has now lasted nine months and he doesn’t look a happy character at all at present. He is still capable of producing top-class tennis – the Doha final against Murray being a case in point – but the consistency is definitely not what it was and he can certainly be taken on at odds as short as 5/2.
As for Murray, the winner in Dubai last week, he can be opposed on the back of a poor record at this venue where he admits he’s always struggled to adapt to conditions.
In the Californian desert the balls fly through the air and kick up high off a slow court surface and that combination has hurt Murray in the past.
He’s never won the title with only one final appearance (eight years ago) on his CV. A modest 25-11 win-loss record includes defeats to Federico Delbonis (2016), Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (2012) and Donald Young (2011).
Three left-field losses in the six years suggests he can be beaten by anyone in this draw, despite his new-found status as world number one. And with just one semi-final reached in that period, Murray is easily ignored, even though the draw has favoured him in a big way.
His Big Four colleagues have all been placed in the other half – indeed the same quarter – making for a strangely bottom-heavy draw.
Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are actually joined by Olympic silver medallist Juan Martin Del Potro and rising stars Kyrgios and Alex Zverev in that ‘quarter of death’.
You are welcome to try to pick a semi-finalist from that lot if you like but for me it’s simply a section to ignore and turn elsewhere in search of value. While the argument can be made that whoever comes through the quarter will be well placed to win the title, I’d suggest they could easily be both mentally and physically fatigued going into the business end of the tournament.
So if those at the head of the betting look worth taking on, who looks capable of taking advantage at a decent price?
First up I’d look for someone whose profile fits – I like big servers who can hit through the slow court in Indian Wells.
As an example, Milos Raonic, who made the final, was an each-way pick here 12 months ago. The Canadian is out injured this time, however.
Marin Cilic is out of form and both Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych are too inconsistent at this Masters level for my liking, particularly once their price is taken into account.
So who does fit the bill? Two players I like the look of both have decent form and are tasty prices in good sections of the draw.
American Jack Sock is in the third quarter, along with Cilic and Kei Nishikori, the fourth seed who holds a disappointing 7-8 win-loss record here.
He serves big, often up at the 140mph mark, and has a forehand to match. It’s a combination which has taken the likes of Raonic and Isner far here in the past and Sock should be well suited to the conditions.
He’s struggled with high heat and humidity in the past but neither will be a big problem here.
Potential third-round foe Grigor Dimitrov might be – the Bulgarian is sure to be well backed after a strong start to the season – but Sock leads their head-to-head record 2-1 and he’s also started 2017 well, claiming hardcourt titles in Auckland and Delray Beach.
His level of opposition at those events has not been as high as it will be here but then the third quarter looks arguably the weakest with a semi-final spot looking wide open.
At 150/1, Sock warrants small support.
I also believe it’s worth taking a chance on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, another player with the big serve and forehand combo which has the potential to cause damage here.
Tsonga has impressive service numbers so far in 2017 – only Ivo Karlovic is currently ahead of him in the service games won and first-serve points won categories.
Again, the quality of opposition will likely be higher at Masters level but there’s no doubt Tsonga has been looking better of late, collecting two titles last month in Rotterdam and Marseille.
The worry with the Frenchman would be he’s played indoors for the past month where the ball bounces lower but as I’ve already said his game looks well suited to conditions and quarter-final runs here in 2016 and 2013 suggest he can adapt.
Tsonga is in Murray’s section of the draw and is the obvious candidate to take advantage of another of those shock losses from the British star.
Given Murray is taking up such a large portion of the book in this quarter (and indeed the field as a whole) I’m keen on other long shots in his half.
I’m tempted by Ryan Harrison, the recent Memphis Open winner, who can also give the ball a big strike and probably shouldn’t be 500/1, but a player who appeals more despite a disappointing start to the season is John Isner.
The American has gone just 4-4 in 2017 but he’s certainly a man who likes to feel at home and he should do in Indian Wells.
He made the final here in 2012 and the semis two years later – his massive serve can be used to its full effect in the desert and if ever there was a venue which could kickstart his season it is this one.
It should also be remembered that of Isner’s 22 career finals at ATP level, 19 have been in his home country. As a player who has often struggled to find his best form overseas, Isner’s results Down Under can really come as no surprise, while more recent outings closer to home came at the hands of Davis Cup team-mates Steve Johnson and Donald Young, both of whom has seen his fearsome serve more than most.
He has a decent record against potential third-round foe Gael Monfils (4-4), leads fourth-round projected opponent Dominic Thiem 1-0 on a hardcourt and is 2-1 up on Wawrinka, who he could meet in the quarter-finals.
Isner, who did find some form in Acapulco last week when he made the final of the doubles, is priced up at 150/1 and in ideal conditions that’s big enough to tempt me in.
Finally, I’m going to turn to Roberto Bautista Agut.
While the Spaniard lacks that big serve which my profile of a potential finalist includes, he is an excellent returner who can make the most of the slow courts if he gets into the rallies.
His return stats in 2017 have been impressive – he’s sixth for games won on return - which suggests that he will be able to drag opponents into his more drawn-out game where he can break down his opposition.
He did that to Tomas Berdych here in 2014 en route to the last 16 and arrives with some decent form having won 12 of 15 matches this year, capturing the title in Chennai, losing to Raonic in the last 16 of the Australian Open and also making the semis in Sofia.
He didn’t shine in Dubai but losing to eventual runner-up Fernando Verdasco 7-5 in the third was far from disastrous and he did at least get some outdoor hardcourt matches under his belt which will leave him better placed than some.
At 100/1, I’ll complete my coupon with another small bet.
Picking four out at one tournament isn’t a regular approach but the way the draw has panned out, it could well be a tactic worth pursuing.
Where to watch: Sky Sports
Posted at 1945 GMT on 08/03/17.
