French Open tennis betting tips: Day three preview including Vasek Pospisil v Matteo Berrettini

Recommended bets

1pt Hugo Dellien to beat Ricardas Berankis 3-0 at 13/5

1pt Ugo Humbert and Matteo Berrettini both to win 3-0 at 2.35/1

1pt Monica Niculescu to beat Danielle Collins at 11/10

Hugo Dellien v Ricardas Berankis

I’m generally a big fan of backing a ‘proper’ claycourter against an ‘imposter’ and this match is a prime example.

Berankis has played just five matches on this surface in the last three years. He’s faced opponents ranked in the world’s top 300 in three of those – and lost all three in straight sets.

The sets scores in that run are pretty grim – 6-2, 6-2, 6-0, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1 and 6-1.

The Lithuanian will bank a nice cheque if he loses in round one for the seventh time in seven visits before moving onto the indoor hardcourts where he may well flourish.

In the same time period, Dellien has played more than 150 claycourt matches. He was brought up on the surface and while he’s hardly in great form, I’d take him every day of the week to win a match like this.

The Bolivian made the quarter-finals in Santiago earlier this season and I think if he gets ahead early here, then his opponent’s head may well go down. Berankis doesn’t want to be playing in such conditions.

For me, 13/5 about a straight-sets win for Dellien looks a nice price and one I’m happy to take.

Ugo Humbert v Marc Polmans

This looks a bit of a mismatch with the in-form home hope taking on a lucky loser from qualifying.

Humbert beat Fabio Fognini in Rome and pushed Denis Shapovalov to a third set. The following week in Hamburg he beat top seed Daniil Medvedev before taking another top-class clay performer Casper Ruud to a decider.

In the same week, Polmans was attempting to qualify but failed to do so, losing to Britain's Liam Broady, who had never before been that far at the Paris major. And this is a big step up in class from that contest.

Humbert won the pair’s only previous meeting in straight sets (on a hardcourt) and I can see him securing victory in quick fashion here – he’s 10/11 to do so in three sets.

Vasek Pospisil v Matteo Berrettini

The hard-hitting Berrettini was in my thoughts as a potential dark horse when I wrote my outright preview – he has the power to crush the heavy balls through the slow courts of Roland Garros.

Here he comes up against another player who would prefer to be well away from Paris in the autumn. Were we to take away the financial incentive for being here, of course.

Like Berankis, Pospisil will be desperate to return to the indoor hardcourts on which he performed so well at the start of the season.

A look at his record on clay helps show why.

The Canadian has lost 18 of his last 19 matches on the surface at all levels. Twelve of those have been in straight sets, including his last four at this tournament.

With conditions even slower this year, I’d very much expect something similar to occur.

You can get 5/6 about a straight-sets win for the Italian, who should deliver. My suggestion is to double him up with Humbert to create a price close to 5/2.

Danielle Collins v Monica Niculescu

Niculescu looks a decent underdog in the women’s singles on Tuesday, offered at 11/10 to win this contest.

Collins has played just two matches since January’s Australian Open. Both were on hardcourts and both ended in defeat.

She therefore arrives in Paris without clay matches under her belt. Her last on the surface, at a small event in the US in November, saw her lose to the world number 311.

The weather and playing conditions will feel a long way from the sun-kissed hardcourts of Florida, where she resides.

Niculescu is hardly in sparkling form but she’s already battle-hardened in these conditions having won three matches in qualifying, including victory over former Grand Slam finalist Vera Zvonareva in the final round.

Notably she’s started fast in every match too – her first-set scores have been 6-0, 6-0 and 6-2 in her favour.

A flying start here would be a real mental blow to a player lacking match sharpness.

Niculescu to win is the bet but you may also want to consider Sky Bet’s 5/1 about her winning the first set by a 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 scoreline.

Posted at 2035 BST on 28/09/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.