Caroline Garcia v Jennifer Brady
Garcia landed followers of this column an 11/4 winner when she took down top seed Karolina Pliskova on Wednesday and I’m surprised to see her only a tiny bit shorter to win this contest.
Yes, Brady has been in fine form this season, posting some excellent wins – Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza were among her pre-lockdown victims - to climb up the rankings.
When the tour resumed, Brady blasted her way to the Lexington title without dropping a set, something doubtless factored into the price here, but it’s worth taking a closer look at that run.
She beat only two top-50 players that week and the highest of those was number 36, Magda Linette.
Last week she lost to qualifier Jessica Pegula and while she’s eased through to the last 32 this week, again she’s yet to face top-50 opposition.
Former top-10 star Garcia should provide a much tougher test.
Anyone who saw her against Pliskova will know she played very well, adopting an aggressive game-style, particularly on the return of serve. That will likely continue here.
Aside from a 10-minute wobble as she closed in on victory, Garcia was strong in all areas in that contest and it’s hard to resist backing her at 5/2 here.
Filip Krajinovic v David Goffin
Krajinovic has been a real eyecatcher since the tour resumed in its New York ‘bubble’.
Last week he lost just three games against both Dominic Thiem and Marton Fucsovics and should have beaten eventual runner-up Milos Raonic in straight sets before wobbling and losing in three.
He’s managed to put that behind him so far this week – he’s yet to lose a set after matches with Mikael Ymer and Marcos Giron.
Goffin has dropped sets in both matches he’s played thus far, admittedly against better opposition in Reilly Opelka and Lloyd Harris, but most significantly he’s struggled to deal with Krajinovic in their previous meetings.
The Serb leads 2-0 on hardcourts, both matches coming last season. Both were won in straight sets.
He’s full of confidence right now and will be happy to be out on the outside courts for this one – they have played faster than their stadium counterparts.
Predicted temperatures above 30C could also work against Goffin, who has struggled at times in such conditions.
With none of their hardcourt sets having even gone to a tie-break, I’m happy to back Krajinovic on the -2.5 game handicap.
Odds correct as of 2250 BST on 3/9/20
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