Andy Schooler has bets ranging from 6/1 to 150/1 for this week’s Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati, the Western and Southern Open.
Tennis betting tips: Western and Southern Open
2pts win Stefanos Tsitsipas at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
1pt e.w. John Isner at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 70/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt e.w Marin Cilic at 150/1 (Sky Bet)
Western and Southern Open
- Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)
STEFANOS TSITSIPAS looks to be clicking into gear at just the right time and it may pay to jump on the Greek’s bandwagon in Cincinnati this week.
Tsitsipas has put his Olympics disappointment firmly behind him in Toronto over the past week where the faster courts have appeared to aid this game.
OK, he did lose in the semi-finals to a man we backed last week, Reilly Opelka, but it was a match arguably decided by a couple of untimely double-faults from the Greek, who lost from a set up.
Prior to that, he’d looked in good nick, demolishing Karen Khachanov and Casper Ruud. He lost serve only twice all week.
It’s worth remembering how Tsitsipas built up momentum coming into the French Open earlier this season – an event in which he made the final – and I suspect a player who likes to keep busy will be very keen to keep the ball rolling this week.
The Laykold courts, a bit faster than their DecoTurf predecessors, will again be on show in Cincinnati, an event which has regularly been among the ATP’s slickest venues.
It was on this surface that the 23-year-old made the semi-finals of this event 12 months ago, although on that occasion it was actually held in New York as part of the ‘bubble’ return to action following the enforced Covid-19 lockdown. That’s a point to note for any punters studying ‘course form’.
Novak Djokovic was the winner on that occasion but he’s not here this year as he continues his post-Olympics, pre-US Open rest.
Injuries prevent both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer playing here too, so for the first time in 20 years none of the ‘Big Three’ will be in attendance.
It’s therefore a massive opportunity for the likes of Tsitsipas and the other so-called ‘Next Gen’ players.
Newly-crowned Olympic champion Alex Zverev is among that pack and he’s well-fancied by the bookies this week.
The German looked unplayable at times in Tokyo where his semi-final comeback win over Djokovic – and final breeze against Karen Khachanov – will certainly have fuelled his belief that Grand Slam glory is just around the corner.
When his serve and forehand click and add to the always-solid backhand, Zverev is a real threat against anyone and he’ll doubtless have his backers this week.
However, his consistency remains an issue and the conditions here will be considerably faster than those in Japan.
Unlike so many of his title rivals this week, Zverev hasn’t bedded in on the North American hardcourts so, at 6/1, I prefer Tsitsipas in the bottom half, particularly given the Greek leads their head-to-head series 6-2. They could meet in the semis.
Matteo Berrettini is another big name in this section but he’s playing for the first time since his run to the Wimbledon final. He’s been nursing a thigh injury since and there must be an element of him testing his fitness out here ahead of the US Open.
Conditions will suit the Italian’s game but this doesn’t look the week to be siding with him.
ATP1000 Cincinnati singles draw (pdf view) via TennisLive app pic.twitter.com/xBWmRquCx6
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) August 14, 2021
Instead I’m happy to take a punt on UGO HUMBERT as a longshot in this half of the draw.
The Frenchman will love the speedy courts here. They’ll aid his lefty serve and allow him to come in plenty as he looks to impose his aggressive game on opponents.
He opens against Frances Tiafoe, a player he beat for the loss of just three games in Delray Beach last year, with Diego Schwartzman the first seed he’s due to face in round two. He’ll fancy that one in these conditions.
The aforementioned Ruud is another who will likely find these courts too fast (Humbert has won both previous hardcourt meetings anyway) and after that could come a quarter-final with Zverev.
Interestingly, Humbert beat the German in Halle as recently as June in what is their only meeting to date. He’s also 2-1 up on potential semi-final opponent Tsitsipas.
At first glance, Humbert’s recent form might not look up to much but study a bit closer and there’s something to like.
He won the title on the fast grass of Halle and only lost 9-7 in the fifth set to Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon. Hardly a disaster.
He’s since beaten Tsitsipas at the Olympics before losing to eventual silver medallist Khachanov, while last week in Toronto he lost a three-setter to Tsitsipas, who, as already stated, has more than backed up that victory.
An each-way play at 70/1 is recommended.
Turning to the top half, our 50/1 Toronto pick JOHN ISNER again looks too big at the same price.
The American became the latest in a long line of big-priced semi-final losers for this column in Canada but he has another decent chance this week in Cincy where he is a former finalist (in 2013) and also made the semis in 2017.
Isner won the title in Atlanta prior to going deep in Toronto but sensibly took a week off in between.
That decision to skip Washington was clearly done with these back-to-back Masters tournaments in mind and I’m sure he’ll be giving it everything again this week with conditions once again in his favour.
Prior to his admittedly worrying last-four demolition by Daniil Medvedev, the 36-year-old’s big serve was broken just twice in his first four matches in Toronto, a run which included wins over seeds Cristian Garin, Andrey Rublev and Gael Monfils.
Here the draw does look a little tricky, starting with Los Cabos champion Cameron Norrie in round one.
However, the Brit’s form has dipped since that success in Mexico. Jannik Sinner could follow but he found the conditions in Toronto too fast, failing to break the serve of the lowly-ranked James Duckworth, while Denis Shapovalov was miserably beaten at his home event by Tiafoe, going down 6-1 6-4.
Isner could face a rematch with Rublev in the quarter-finals but the Russian as second best in last week’s contest as his disappointing run of form continued – he’s now lost before the semi-finals in seven of his last eight events.
Tournament favourite Medvedev is the man expected to make the final but I remain cautious about backing him at a short price.
He was rather fortunate to get past Hubert Hurkacz in Toronto and the pair could meet again in the last eight here. Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta are others in his testing quarter so 7/2 isn’t for me.
This camera angle on the double-tweener rally 🤯#NBO21 @HubertHurkacz @DaniilMedwed pic.twitter.com/TfeZvgRKbv
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 14, 2021
Finally, I simply can’t resist the 150/1 being dangled about MARIN CILIC’s chances.
He was the champion here in 2016 and a semi-finalist as recently as 2018.
OK, Cilic isn’t the force he once was but I’ve written in this column in recent times about how we’ve seen glimpses of his old self and the conditions here look pretty much ideal for the big-serving Croat.
He may still be wondering how he blew a two-set lead over Medvedev at Wimbledon but while that match did highlight his mental weakness, it also provided evidence of what he’s capable of on a slick surface where he can use his forehand to attack behind his serve.
Sadly, Cilic is in the same quarter as Isner – he faces Aslan Karatsev first and would then meet Rublev.
However, for me, he shouldn’t be a three-figure price and I’ll place a small-stakes bet accordingly.
Posted at 0910 BST on 15/08/21
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