Recommended bets
2.5pts Martic to beat Vondrousova at 11/8
1pt Wawrinka to beat Federer at 9/4
Marketa Vondrousova v Petra Martic
Followers of the column from the start of the tournament should be in a great position here after taking Marketa Vondrousova to win the quarter at 9/1, with the prospects of Petra Martic also highlighted.
As the teenage 'Next Big Thing' on the tour, Vondrousova has been rated favourite in the quarter-final clash but I'm not sure why. Four times this pair have met in the past 18 months and all four have gone to Martic - for the loss of one set.
You can make the argument that the Czech left-hander has the most scope for improvement but Martic is undoubtedly in the best form of her career, winning 16 of 18 matches on clay this season, losing only to Sloane Stephens in Madrid and Caroline Wozniacki in Charleston in early April.
Vondrousova has obviously been in great touch, winning four rounds without dropping a set, against the likes of Anastasija Sevastova and Carla Suarez Navarro. However, the surprise value of the left-hander hitting great angles has been milked as far as it can this week. Only one of her four victims had faced her before: it's one thing to watch clips of a player with those shots, it's another thing entirely to face and react to them.
That advantage does not apply against Martic, the Croatian holding a 4-0 head-to-head record as mentioned, and the market looks the wrong way round. This will classify as a hedge, but independent of any early bets, Martic is still solid value at the price.
Stan Wawrinka vs Roger Federer
Showdown number 28 between these Swiss veterans, with the slate firmly in the favour of Roger Federer at 24-3.
On the red dirt, however, it's not so one-sided at only 5-3 to the man with 20 Grand Slam singles titles to his name. Each of Stan Wawrinka's three victories have in fact been in France, and he won the last time they played on clay back in 2015.
While they've obviously both won four matches to reach this point, their progress has been contrasting. Federer has been on court so far for a total of seven hours and 10 minutes, whereas Wawrinka did most of that in his last match alone against Stefanos Tsitsipas. His court clock is over 12 hours already, but stamina is not an asset you would ever deem Wawrinka deficient in.
Besides, while if this was a match against another heavy-hitting baseliner, I'd consider it a reason for concern, against Federer, it's not in his best interests to play long, grinding points.
Federer will attempt to control matters from nearer the baseline - he doesn't want to get into a battle from closer to the fence than the court. Stepping so close makes him more vulnerable to the intense topspin from Wawrinka, particularly with the high ball to his backhand.
It will get attacked constantly, and while Federer has faced this throughout his career, few are good enough to capitalise on it. Wawrinka has shown he is one of the chosen few who can do so.
The faster conditions over the past nine days have worked in Federer's favour, but the expectation of rain on Tuesday also goes against him. Balls get heavier, points slow down, winners aren't quite as easy to come by.
Wawrinka can take this. Conditions will be perfect and he can end Federer's serene progress.
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