Elise Mertens vs Tamara Zidansek
23-year-old Belgian Elise Mertens arrived in Paris full of confidence last year, having won two titles in the preceding two months. That run of form continued, taking her into the fourth round, defeated by eventual champion Simone Halep, and then up to world number 12 by year's end.
It has become harder for her this season, a higher ranking equates to greater pressure to maintain those points, and in five clay events this season she has lost her first match on four occasions - not once to a higher-ranked opponent. That's a worrying sign that the yips are setting in and she looks like a seed at risk of bowing out early.
Her opponent Tamara Zidansek won four lower-level clay events last season (for a career tally of 15) to earn a main draw appearance at Roland Garros for the first time. Her WTA clay form in 2019 includes a quarter-final run in Bogota, winning through qualifying in Rome and reaching the final last week in Nurenberg (losing to Yulia Putintseva in three sets). A red dirt specialist, she will stretch Mertens to the limit, exposing any reluctance to close matches out.
1pt Tamara Zidansek to win at 7/4
Pablo Carreno-Busta v Joao Sousa
Former world number 10 Pablo Carreno-Busta has recently returned from ten weeks off with a shoulder injury, but his comeback hasn't been a success as yet. Four straight first round losses to decent but not star opponents leaves him underdone going into the longer best-of-five set format.
Even before his enforced break, his form had been patchy, a shadow of the form which got him into the top 10 and he is well worth taking on. Joao Sousa is on his best run of form in major events, reaching the fourth round in New York and the third in Melbourne.
His clay form this campaign isn't the most inspiring but his average backhand gets picked off by left-handers - see recent losses to Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Adrian Mannarino and Guido Pella - while against Carreno-Busta, he holds a 2-1 lead on the head-to-head.
Any early value of better than evens has gone but I still believe he should be marginal favourite.
1pt Joao Sousa to win at Evens
Aljaz Bedene v Borna Coric
The one-time wannabe Brit, Aljaz Bedene, started this season with some handy wins on clay, taking down the Italian duo of Fabio Fognini and Marco Cecchinato, but since a leg injury in Rio in February it's been a disappointing campaign.
His only wins in that period have been over Hugo Nys, Taro Daniel and Bernard Tomic, none of whom are likely to win a match here. He has won just eight matches in Grand Slam tournament main draws in 23 attempts.
Borna Coric, on the other hand, is going from strength to strength with back-to-back fourth round results in New York and Melbourne, and maintaining that trend would surpass his best result of a third round (three times).
Perhaps suited to hardcourt, his clay form this season is encouraging, reaching the quarters in Monte Carlo and losing to eventual champion Fabio Fognini, and a third round run in Rome, losing in a third-set tiebreak to the indefatigable Roger Federer.
A straight sets win is likely but Coric has a habit of starting slow here before finishing strongly. I'd rather side with the games handicap.
1pt Borna Coric to win -6.5 games at 10/11
Prices correct as of 2306 on 26/05/19
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