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French Open tennis betting tips: Day one preview featuring Johanna Konta v Coco Gauff
Andy Schooler bring you the first of his daily match previews for the French Open – and it includes a 11/4 shot for Sunday’s action at Roland Garros.
Recommended bets
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- 1pt first-set tie-break in Elliot Benchetrit v John Isner at 5/2
- 1pt Caroline Garcia to beat Anett Kontaveit at 11/4
- 1pt Johanna Konta (-2.5) and Nadia Podoroska (-5.5) to win their game handicaps at 2.66/1
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Elliot Benchetrit v John Isner
John Isner and tie-breaks go together like hand and glove but it’s rare to find value in backing him to play in one.
Yet this looks to be an opportunity with a first-set tie-break offered at 5/2.
This is down to his opponent being a local wild card but the layers may have under-estimated Benchetrit.
Standing 6ft 4in – still tiny compared to Isner – the Frenchman has a decent serve and one which could well keep the American at bay.
Isner is one of the poorest returners on tour and comes in here without having played any warm-up matches on clay, hardly ideal.
A look back to his recent campaigns on the clay show eight of the 11 ‘first sets’ he’s played have gone to a tie-break. In total, he’s played 30 sets in those 11 matches with 19 finishing 7-6.
He has broken serve just 5% of the time in that period – once in every 20 service games by his opponents.
The slow balls and surface won’t be conducive to aces but Isner’s delivery is so big he’ll still be able to serve plenty in this match.
I’d expect Benchetrit to hit a few too, especially with the players meeting for the first time and therefore not having seen each other’s serve.
Remember if you can’t find a first-set tie-break market, you can dutch the two correct score options (Isner 7-6 and Benchetrit 7-6) to get a price.
Anett Kontaveit v Caroline Garcia
Garcia looks a big price to cause an upset in round one on Sunday.
The Frenchwoman rewarded this column’s faith when taking out top seed Karolina Pliskova at the US Open where she played well, showing glimpses of the form which took her into the world’s top 10 a few years ago.
Kontaveit is in good form herself and beat Garcia in Rome last week, although the nature of that match showed there isn’t as much between the players as the odds suggest.
The Estonian won 6-3 7-6 in what was always a tight contest. In windy conditions, Garcia did not have a good serving day, with just 38% of her first serves finding the target.
She clearly did well to keep things close in the circumstances and an uplift can be expected here.
Garcia at 11/4 looks worth chancing.
Johanna Konta v Coco Gauff
Much was made of this match when the draw was made on Thursday.
Gauff is undoubtedly a special talent but she’s enduring a tough time of late, winning just one of four matches since the tour resumed. Maybe the weight of expectation is proving a heavy burden to carry.
Most worryingly are her serving issues – she’s produced 35 double faults in her last three matches.
The American teenager is inexperienced on clay – this will be just her fifth tour-level match on the surface – and now she’ll face a player who made the semi-finals here 12 months ago.
Konta has restarted better and while she remains prone to odd poor performance I expect the more streetwise player to prevail here.
She’ll attack the vulnerable second serve of Gauff, which could easily lead to those double faults emerging once more.
Boost her odds to 10/11 by backing her on the -2.5 game handicap.
Greet Minnen v Nadia Podoroska
Podoroska is a player who has hit the ground running post-lockdown.
She’s 12-3 at all levels since the resumption, racking up plenty of wins on clay. Her most recent successes saw her come through qualifying without losing a set.
Yes, the level of opposition wasn’t particularly great in some of those matches but there’s no doubt she’s playing well and capable of dealing with an uptick in quality.
I say uptick but Minnen’s form is poor, losing six of seven in the same period.
She’s lost sets by a 6-0 or 6-1 scoreline on five occasions across those seven matches which immediately points me towards the game handicap.
The layers aren’t daft and have set the line at 5.5 but Podoroska still looks capable here.
Minnen has beaten this handicap line in just two of her seven post-lockdown matches and with Podoroska’s last nine wins all coming in straight sets, this looks worth adding to the coupon.
Posted at 1800 BST on 26/09/20
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