It’s hard to look past the favourite in the French Open women’s singles, says Andy Schooler, but he’s also dug out 100/1 and 150/1 each-way picks.
Tennis betting tips: Women's French Open singles
5.5pts win Iga Swiatek at 10/11 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Petra Martic at 150/1 (General, 1/2 1-2)
0.5pt e.w. Jil Teichmann at 100/1 (Unibet, 1/2 1-2)
French Open
- Roland Garros, Paris, France (outdoor clay)
It’s been a good few years since women’s tennis has had an odds-on favourite at one of its four Grand Slams but that’s the situation ahead of the French Open, which begins on Sunday.
IGA SWIATEK took over at the top of the WTA rankings when Wimbledon champion Ash Barty surprisingly announced her retirement in March but she’s embraced that position and arrives at Roland Garros on a remarkable 28-match win streak.
That run has taken in five titles, including the big French Open warm-up events in Stuttgart and Rome, and is now the best unbeaten streak since Serena Williams claimed 34 consecutive victories in 2013.
But it’s not just the sheer number of wins which has been impressive; it’s also the manner of them.
Straight-sets victories have very much been the norm. Swiatek has won 42 of her last 43 sets and, remarkably, 25 of those have been won with a 6-2 scoreline or better.
This is dominance not seen on the WTA tour for many years and in short, you can see why the Pole is a short price to win here.
Swiatek has everything in her favour
When considering backing someone at just shy of even money you clearly need to look at the potential problems.
Surface isn’t one – Swiatek loves the clay.
Neither is the venue. Roland Garros is where the Pole’s big breakthrough came in 2020 when she stormed to the title in a fashion as impressive as her recent run – no sets were dropped in that fortnight.
Fatigue isn’t a huge concern either. Yes, she’s played lots of matches in 2022 but, as pointed out, she’s breezed through many while the 20-year-old also showed her mature side recently when withdrawing from Madrid, giving herself a rest at a vital time.
Swiatek’s ability to transition from defence to attack is second to none right now and having beaten all types of opponent in the past couple of months, it’s difficult to envisage her blowing up.
Of course, it only takes one bad day for things to go up in smoke but that’s not happened to Swiatek for a long, long time and to suggest it’s going to happen in the next two weeks is simply guesswork.
The one negative I can come up with is the draw, which could have been kinder.
Notably, Liudmila Samsonova is Swiatek’s potential third-round opponent and she’s the only player who’s come close to beating her during the ongoing, stunning run.
Swiatek eventually prevailed 7-5 in the final set of their Stuttgart semi-final but that scoreline shows the potential for an upset is there.
That said, I’d also say the fact Swiatek has come through such a test is a good thing – finding yourself in a battle when you are blasting most opponents off court can be a shock to the system – while it’s also worth saying the indoor conditions in Stuttgart aid Samsonova’s big-hitting game more than those of Roland Garros.
Roland-Garros women's singles draw : #RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/nw6PiZBiuu
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 19, 2022
Simona Halep and Aryna Sabalenka are other possible opponents before the final, although both of those have been beaten by Swiatek in recent weeks, the latter being thrashed in both Stuttgart and Rome.
In short, Swiatek looks far and away the most likely winner of this title and so I’m happy to back her, even at the price.
Ons Jabeur would have garnered plenty more attention in recent times were in not for Swiatek and, for me, has clearly been the second-best player since the tour moved onto the clay.
The Tunisian did have her moment in the sun in Madrid when she made the most of Swiatek’s absence to claim the biggest title of her career.
She’s also finished runner-up in Charleston (to Belinda Bencic) and Rome (to Swiatek) so clearly is in fine form right now.
Her mix-it-up game blends power with delicate touch and looks well suited to the Roland Garros clay.
For me, she’s the clear favourite to make the final from the bottom half of the draw and, at 12/1, has potential as an each-way bet.
Even if she were to lose to Swiatek again in the final, a decent profit would be made.
However, backing the top two in the market would be a strange move and only serve to dilute any Swiatek profits, so while I wouldn’t put off anyone who’s looking for a bigger-priced alternative to the jolly, I can’t put Jabeur up here.
Could there be another French Open shock?
Now, I’m sure many of you reading this will be thinking ‘isn’t this tournament is well known for its big-priced winners?’ and you’d be right.
So, there’s no doubt it’s worth throwing a couple of darts.
After all, in the last five years, Jelena Ostapenko, Swiatek and Barbora Krejcikova have all emerged as champions at very tasty odds.
I’ve obviously stated my case for why I think another chunky priced winner isn’t that likely this year but there’s plenty of sense in taking a long shot in the bottom half of the draw, especially if you are betting each-way.
In the third quarter, that of Jabeur, cases can be made for Charleston champion Bencic and American Amanda Anisimova, who made the semis here as a teenager in 2019.
However, for a real long shot, I’m going to try PETRA MARTIC.
She’s another who shone in that 2019 tournament, reaching the quarter-finals, and the Croatian has found a bit of form of late.
Coached by Michael Geserer, the man who helped Jen Brady reach last year’s Australian Open final, Martic loves the clay and so we probably shouldn’t be too surprised that, including qualifiers, she managed to win seven matches across Madrid and Rome.
They included victories over Samsonova and world number five Anett Kontaveit, while she only lost in three sets to Anisimova in Madrid.
That’s a glimpse which suggests a decent Paris run is possible at 150/1.
Moving onto the bottom quarter, JIL TEICHMANN is a 100/1 shot worth a punt.
The Swiss has caught the eye in recent weeks, not dropping a set en route to the Madrid semi-finals, and backing that up with some good displays in Rome.
Her Italian job ended in the quarter-finals and therein lies the problem – an abdominal injury forced her out and how she’s recovered over the past week or so remains to be seen.
That unknown will put some off but on the plus side, Teichmann has an excellent recent record against the elite, going 6-3 against top-20 players in 2021, a record she’s replicated so far this season.
That should give her plenty of confidence for an event as big as this and if fully fit she certainly has the potential to contend and maybe become the next surprise winner of the famous Suzanne Lenglen Cup.
Posted at 2230 BST on 20/05/22
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