Our tennis man Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on the men’s singles at the French Open, which gets under way at Roland Garros on Sunday.
Tennis betting tips: Men's French Open singles
4pts Novak Djokovic to win the French Open at 9/4 (bet365, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 50/1 (Betfred 1/2 1/2)
1pt Hubert Hurkacz to win the third quarter at 16/1 (Betfred)
1pt Miomir Kecmanovic to win the fourth quarter at 14/1 (Betfred)
French Open
- Roland Garros, Paris (outdoor clay)
When Rafael Nadal won January’s Australian Open in remarkable fashion, most tennis followers would probably have put him down for another triumph at Roland Garros, which gets under way on Sunday.
After all, this is a man who has won this title an incredible 13 times.
Yet four months is a long time in tennis and it’s fair to say much has changed.
Instead of the familiar sight of Nadal biting into trophies for much of the spring, fans have had to watch the great man struggle on court and give depressing comments off it.
A chronic foot problem is clearly troubling the Spaniard again. Most worryingly, this is the same injury which Nadal says almost caused him to quit the game towards the back end of 2021.
Losing to Denis Shapovalov in Rome and Carlos Alcaraz, a big title rival here, in Madrid isn’t exactly disastrous but it’s also a long way from the Nadal norm – with the exception of the pandemic-ruined 2020, this year will be the first in which he’s headed to Roland Garros without a claycourt title already under his belt.
Of course, Nadal has the ability and the experience to enable a turnaround in form but right now the biggest concern looks to be fitness and that’s not something he’s in total control of.
The Grand Slam, best-of-five-sets format is hardly a help to anyone carrying an injury, while Thursday’s draw threw another hurdle (or two) in the 35-year-old’s path.
Roland-Garros men's singles draw :#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/0UNzSnEkPR
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 19, 2022
Nadal was placed in the same quarter as world number one and defending champion Novak Djokovic, with the winner slated to meet wonderkid Alcaraz in the semis.
With Stan Wawrinka and Felix Auger-Aliassime possible first-week opponents, it couldn’t have gone much worse.
It’s a long time since we’ve seen Nadal at 9/2 to win the French Open but it’s not a price for me in the circumstances.
Can Alcaraz land antepost gamble?
Many will fancy Alcaraz – indeed he’s favourite with some bookmakers – after the stunning start to the season he’s produced.
North of 20/1 for this title at the turn of the year, the 19-year-old is 28-3 for the year so far, winning four titles.
Of most relevance is the fact that two of those came in Barcelona and Madrid in the run-up to this event and he subsequently arrives on a 10-match winning streak.
Having defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas, Nadal, Djokovic and Alex Zverev, Alcaraz has beaten all his main titles for the title in the past few weeks.
He’s been able to blend strong defence with some exceptional attacking play – the winner tallies he produced in Madrid against Nadal and Djokovic were eyecatching given how difficult a task that’s been against those players in the past.
There’s an obvious case to be made for him adding to his title collection here but long gone are the days when his price smacked of value.
And while it’s clear why he could arguably be considered the favourite, it’s also not difficult to understand the reasons why that’s not the case.
Alcaraz would much rather have landed on the other half of the draw to Djokovic and Nadal – both took him to a final set in Madrid where the former got particularly close. Earlier tests also lie in his path in the shape of Seb Korda, Cam Norrie and Zverev.
Some will say those players simply aren’t in the same class which is probably fair, but that also brings me to another point I consider salient.
Alcaraz has only played four five-set matches in his career so far and you have to wonder what getting dragged into some lengthy battles in Paris would do to his chances.
OK, maybe that won’t be the case but his warm-up events don’t really suggest he’s about to cruise through the draw.
Taking a look at his current 10-match winning streak, six of those contests went to a final set.
He’s been regularly compared to Nadal but he’s not produced the same level of dominance we’ve seen so often on clay from the elder statesman.
Take Nadal’s breakthrough season of 2005. He came into Roland Garros that year unbeaten in 17 matches. Eleven of those were won in straight sets.
During that run, Nadal also won a remarkable 20 sets by a scoreline of 6-2 or better. Alcaraz’s current run has just six such examples.
Finally, there’s also that mental hurdle of trying to achieve something for the first time – this would be a maiden Grand Slam title which brings its own unique pressure.
Fresh Djokovic primed for history bid
I’m not saying he can’t win but I am going to swerve Alcaraz here in favour of a player who has been there and got the t-shirt – NOVAK DJOKOVIC.
The reigning champion was, of course, not in Melbourne for Nadal’s Australian Open success, booted out by the authorities over his COVID vaccine refusal.
That crazy, headline-inducing start to the year had obvious effects – the Serb played only three matches in the first three-and-a-half months and the rustiness was certainly evident.
But the European claycourt season crucially provided Djokovic with a run of tournaments he could play and the improvement in his game has been clear.
He was runner-up in Belgrade before losing 7-6 in the third to Alcaraz in the Madrid semis.
Most impressively, Djokovic stormed to the title in Rome – an event which replicates the Paris conditions much more closely than Madrid – without losing a set. Tsitsipas was the man beaten in the final.
In short, Djokovic has found his form at just the right time and having missed Australia (and other events) he’ll have the motivation to get back in the Grand Slam winners’ circle – something that would see him tie Nadal in the all-time list.
With his schedule having been much lighter than previous years, fatigue should not be an issue and I’m happy to back the world number one at 9/4.
Where is the value on the other side of the draw?
The one big title contender I’ve yet to fully mention is Tsitsipas, who would have been happy to land in the bottom half of the draw, away from Djokovic, Alcaraz and Nadal.
He’s a firm favourite with the layers to make the final from this section which seems fair enough.
Similar to last year when he made the Roland Garros final, losing to Djokovic from two sets up, the Greek has shown terrific consistency on the European clay.
He won the title in Monte Carlo and has gone deep at his other three warm-up events, losing only to Djokovic, Zverev and Alcaraz.
'I try my best every single day...I really hope I can get to your level one day'
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 15, 2022
Pure class from @steftsitsipas 👏#IBI22 pic.twitter.com/cPnsmSmzyZ
It would therefore be no surprise were Tsitsipas to return to the final but following his luck of the draw, he’s now a best price of 5/1.
Were he to face Djokovic, Alcaraz or Nadal in the final, he’d almost certainly be the underdog so I’m not seeing him as a great bet at this point.
It would also be foolish to suggest he’s a shoo-in for that final.
First up is a tricky opener against Lorenzo Musetti, a man who led Djokovic by two sets at this event 12 months ago.
Denis Shapovalov is a potential last-16 foe, while perhaps most notably, Casper Ruud is also in the third quarter.
Regular readers will know I’ve long been a fan of Ruud on the clay and I remain convinced that he will one day put it altogether here at Roland Garros (so far he’s yet to go past round three).
Like Djokovic, Ruud is a player who appears to be finding his best form at the right time.
The Miami Open runner-up reached the last four in Rome, losing only to Djokovic, while at time of writing he’s involved in the semis in Geneva.
His strong serve is highlighted by the 2021 claycourt stats which show he was third on tour for service games won and first for second-serve points won.
His return game isn’t so great yet to finish second for second-serve points won is still impressive, even when you consider he played more matches at a lower level than most of his peers.
Sadly, Ruud’s price has collapsed from 45/1 to 25s following the draw and it’s actually a player at much bigger odds who I’m going to take a chance on.
HUBERT HURKACZ hasn’t been talked about much but he’s recently made the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing only to Djokovic at the latter.
OK, he was beaten in the first round of Rome by a resurgent David Goffin but a 7-6 7-6 defeat shows how close that contest was and the quick Madrid-Rome turnaround with the venues’ differing conditions is always tricky.
The Pole’s draw looks to have given him a good opportunity to play himself into the tournament, admittedly something he’s failed to do in previous visits.
Ruud, whose own Roland Garros record I’ve already mentioned, and Tsitsipas are the only players ranked higher in this quarter so a small play on Hurkacz making the semis at 16/1 looks worth a try.
Medvedev there to be taken on
The fourth quarter is clearly the weakest and also provides a decent betting opportunity.
The reason is that this is where second seed Daniil Medvedev resides and he’s lacking both match sharpness and claycourt nous.
The Russian only returned to the match court a few days ago after hernia surgery and his two-month absence was evident as he lost first up in Geneva to Richard Gasquet.
Incredibly, that was the 16th time in 22 tour-level clay tournaments in which he’s lost his opening match. Another early loss beckons here.
Maybe that will come against MIOMIR KECMANOVIC in round three.
The Serb is enjoying the best season of his career, as reflected in his current, career-high ranking of 31.
He arrives with a 23-11 win-loss record in 2022 with results on the clay encouraging.
While deep runs may not leap off the page – the semis in Munich his best effort – it’s worth looking at the players he’s lost to.
In Rome that was Diego Schwartzman, 7-6 in the decider; in Madrid it was Nadal; and in Belgrade he took a set off Djokovic before losing their quarter-final.
He’ll be quietly delighted to have landed in this section and 14/1 about him winning the quarter makes the coupon.
#Djokovic is practicing with Miomir #Kecmanovic. pic.twitter.com/tR2ohs3Qnw
— Saša Ozmo (@ozmo_sasa) May 18, 2022
Finally here, I can’t ignore ANDREY RUBLEV, who is chalked up at 50/1 for the title.
He’s a player I’ve backed plenty of times in the past and doubtless some of you aren’t so keen on him.
But I still see the potential for him to challenge at the highest level and this draw certainly provides him with an opportunity.
It should be remembered that Rublev beat Djokovic to win the title in Belgrade last month, claiming the final 6-0 to boot, while his losses in Monte Carlo (to Jannik Sinner) and Madrid (Tsitsipas) were far from a disgrace.
It is actually Sinner who is favourite to emerge from this quarter but the Italian has often failed to produce his best and has been dragged into some lengthy battles in recent months.
To me, 50/1 just looks too big about a player who made the last eight here in 2020.
Given his 5-5 career record against Tsitsipas, were Rublev to make the semis he would fear no-one so an each-way punt is the advice, although look out for any firms only betting a third of the odds for a place in the final. Thankfully most aren’t.
Posted at 1235 BST on 20/05/22
French Open content
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