After landing two winning bets from two in the women's final of the French Open, Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on Sunday's men's final.
Tennis betting tips: French Open
1.5pts Rafael Nadal to beat Casper Ruud 3-0 at 6/5 (Betfair)
Rafael Nadal v Casper Ruud (1400 BST)
The never-ending history chase which is men’s tennis continues apace on Sunday when Rafael Nadal bids for his 14th French Open title and 22nd Grand Slam overall.
Given those barely-believable numbers, it’s no surprise to see the Spaniard chalked up as a 2/11 favourite for a match which sees him come up against a first-time Slam finalist in Casper Ruud.
Regular readers of these columns will know the Norwegian is a player I’ve long expected to challenge at this stage of the French Open. Sadly, I failed to tip him outright at this year’s tournament!
Since the start of 2020, Ruud has won more claycourt titles and matches than anyone on the ATP Tour and, like Nadal, he’s very much at home on this surface.
Still, it’s long been said that beating Nadal on Court Philippe Chatrier is the toughest task in tennis and odds of 4/1 fairly reflect his chances.
Those looking for chinks in the Spaniard’s armour can point out he’s been made to work hard in the last three rounds, although that’s hardly a shock given he’s faced three top-10 players. He meets another here and a victory would see him become only the third player to beat four top-10 stars en route to a Grand Slam title.
Nadal spent more than four hours on court against both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Novak Djokovic, while the clock had already ticked past three hours by the time Alex Zverev wrecked his ankle towards the end of the second set of their semi-final.
But for those thinking fatigue could play a big part in this match, the fact is Nadal has only been on court six minutes longer than Ruud at this tournament.
Ruud has played 24 sets so far and were he to win this in five he’d equal the record number of sets played to secure a Grand Slam title.
However, history suggests the chances of this going five at slim.
Nadal has only been extended to a fifth set three times in 114 matches at Roland Garros, while he’s won all 13 of his previous Paris finals in either straight sets or four.
Ruud’s serve is the stronger of the two and having won 89% of his service games at this tournament, he’ll clearly be aiming to win this match on the back of that effort.
Still, Nadal has managed to pick off the delivery of some strong servers this past week.
He broke Zverev five times in two sets on Friday, Djokovic on seven occasions and Auger-Aliassime six times (after creating 22 break points). In short, Nadal’s return game is more than good enough to cope.
It’s worth noting these two have never met before and that would often add an element of surprise to proceedings, especially when it comes to returning serve.
Yet Nadal and Ruud have often practised together at the former’s academy in Mallorca and it’s a fair assumption that they know each other’s game fairly well.
No head-to-head data means getting involved in the props markets is fraught with danger, so let’s keep things simple.
As was the case with Saturday’s women’s final, one player has been there and got the t-shirt. The other faces a brand-new experience and we can’t know for sure how he’ll react. Coco Gauff seemed little overwhelmed and I wouldn’t be surprised were that to be the case with Ruud.
The fact he’s playing an idol, who he was in awe of when first arriving at his academy in 2017, is also mental factor which should be considered.
Given all this, a STRAIGHT-SETS WIN FOR NADAL at odds-against looks fair enough.
Ruud is a good claycourter but Nadal is the best there’s ever been.
He’s found his form at the right time and doesn’t seem affected by the foot injury which has bothered him in the fairly recent past.
Yes, he’s now 36 (and on course to become this tournament’s oldest-ever winner) but he’s played for just three hours in the four days leading into this match.
I’ll back class to prevail in comfortable fashion.
Posted at 1700 BST on 04/06/22
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