Recommended bets
1.5pts Jannik Sinner to beat Alex Zverev at 33/20
1.5pts Diego Schwartzman to beat Lorenzo Sonego 3-0 at evens
Alex Zverev v Jannik Sinner
When the ATP created their NextGen brand a few years ago, Zverev was very much the leader of the tour’s rising stars.
While he’s progressed into the top 10 and made a Grand Slam final as recently as last month, the top-level victory many expected has yet to arrive.
Now Sinner is leading the charge from below – the game’s highest-ranked teenager is now the one many are touting as a future Grand Slam champion and world number one.
It’s an intriguing clash and promises to be the match of the day.
The Italian has hardly put a foot wrong so far at Roland Garros, following up his first-round demolition of seed David Goffin with two more straight-sets victories.
Zverev has had two 3-0 wins of his own, although sandwiched in between was one of his all-too-common Grand Slam struggles as he was taken all the way by Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
The German’s opposition has been pretty poor to be frank and he’s definitely stepping up a level here with Sinner looking a tasty underdog at around 6/4.
He already possesses the power in the groundstrokes to live with his higher-ranked foe and I feel his game matches up well in this head-to-head (it will be their first meeting).
The double faults which dogged Zverev at times during the US Open have far from disappeared and I suspect he’ll be extremely vulnerable on his second serve against a returner of Sinner’s quality.
The young gun can reach his first Grand Slam quarter-final and reward his backers.
Lorenzo Sonego v Diego Schwartzman
Sonego has undoubtedly exceeded most expectations by reaching the last 16 but he’s probably met his match in the shape of Schwartzman.
The Italian dismissed the big-serving Taylor Fritz in the last round, following on from victory over Alexander Bublik, another whose serve is his primary weapon.
It is notable that in the first round, Sonego was taken the distance by Emilio Gomez, a ‘proper’ claycourter ready to run all day to chase down balls.
That’s exactly what he’ll now face in Schwartzman, the man who beat Rafael Nadal en route to the final of the recent Rome Masters event. The trouble is, Schwartzman is almost 150 places higher up the rankings than Gomez.
Schwartzman, among my pre-tournament outright selections, has done everything asked of him in Paris, winning all three rounds in straight sets, and he’s capable of repeating the trick in this contest.
Sonego’s serve doesn’t do anywhere near as much damage in these conditions as it has done elsewhere – he was an ATP title winner on grass last season – and with Schwartzman among the best returners in the game, expect the Argentine to create plenty of break-point opportunities.
As ever, he’ll also offer up a few of his own but he’s a level above Sonego on this surface and should show that – take him to win in straight sets.
Posted at 2040 BST on 03/10/20
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