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Pete Sampras Group

Rafael Nadal

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 4/1; To win group: evens

2017 win-loss: 67-10 (6 titles – Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Roland Garros, US Open, Beijing)

2017 indoor record: Paris QF

Recent form: Paris QF, Shanghai RU, Beijing W

Tournament record (in London since 2009): 16-12 – 15 SF, 13 RU, 11 RR, 10 RU, 09 RR, 07 SF, 06 SF

Record v group opponents:

V Thiem – overall: 5-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 3-1
v Dimitrov – overall: 10-1; indoor hard: 2-0; 2017: 3-0
v Goffin – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 2-0

Nadal has never won this tournament and despite the Spaniard having already secured the year-end number one ranking, I wouldn’t be keen on backing him to break his duck this year. It has been a worrying few weeks for Nadal and his army of fans, who saw their man with his knee taped up for the first time in some considerably time during last month’s Shanghai final. His knee joints have been a long-standing problem but one which went away for much of 2017 but the latest issue forced him out of Paris only a week ago. He was hardly convincing about his fitness when he faced the media on Friday either, saying only that he hoped to play his first match on Monday. The indoor conditions here don’t suit him either and despite a strong record against all of his group opponents, Nadal has to be taken on this week.

Dominic Thiem

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 22/1; To win group: 11/2

2017 win-loss: 48-25 (1 title – Rio de Janeiro)

Recent form: Paris L16, Vienna L16, Shanghai L32, Tokyo L32, Chengdu L16

Tournament record: 1-2 – 16 RR

Record v group opponents:

V Nadal – overall: 2-5; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-3
v Dimitrov – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-1
v Goffin – overall: 3-6; indoor hard: 1-1; 2017: 0-2

Has won just two of his last seven matches as his form has again tailed off towards the end of the year. Many put that down to his schedule – Thiem has played more tournaments (26) than any of his London rivals. However, the Austrian played that down on Friday saying he felt “way better” than he did at this point last season when he failed to make it out of his group. Still, it’s hard to make a strong case for the rank outsider given how the last few months have gone.

Grigor Dimitrov

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 10/1; To win group: 5/2

2017 win-loss: 44-19 (3 titles – Brisbane, Sofia, Cincinnati)

Recent form: Paris L16, Stockholm RU, Shanghai QF, Beijing SF

Tournament record: Debut

Record v group opponents:

V Nadal – overall: 1-10; indoor hard: 0-2; 2017: 0-3
v Thiem – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-1
v Goffin – overall: 3-1; indoor hard: 1-1; 2017: 2-1

Has won plenty of matches this autumn but hasn’t added to his title haul since Masters success in Cincinnati. Seemed in relaxed and buoyant mood on Friday in front of the press as he spoke about how he has achieved “95 per cent” of what he set out to do in 2017. Looks to have been drawn in a good group given the doubts of some of those around him and has every chance of making the knockout stages.

David Goffin

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 20/1; To win group: 5/1

2017 win-loss: 54-22 (2 – Shenzhen, Tokyo)

Recent form: Paris L16, Basel SF, Antwerp QF, Shanghai L32, Tokyo W, Shenzhen W, Metz QF

Tournament record: Debut

Record v group opponents:

V Nadal - overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-2
v Thiem - overall: 6-3; indoor hard: 1-1; 2017: 2-0
v Dimitrov - overall: 1-3; indoor hard: 1-1; 2017: 1-2

Injured at Roland Garros and subsequently missing a significant chunk of the season, Goffin has done well to qualify. But he’s played a lot of late – seven tournaments and the Davis Cup semis since the US Open – and that could prove problematic. There’s also the Davis Cup final looming the week after this tournament which must be playing on his mind to some extent. Has never beaten Nadal and has lost six of seven v Dimitrov (if you include Challengers). With the courts faster than they used to be here, Goffin has a lot to overcome.

Boris Becker Group

Roger Federer

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 4/6; To win group: 2/5

2017 win-loss: 49-4 (7 titles – Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Halle, Wimbledon, Shanghai, Basel)

Recent form: Basel W, Shanghai W

Tournament record: 52-12 – 15 RU, 14 RU, 13 SF, 12 RU, 11 W, 10 W, 09 SF, 08 RR, 07 W, 06 W, 05 RU, 04 W, 03 W, 02 SF

Record v group opponents:

V Zverev – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-1
v Cilic – overall: 7-1; indoor hard: 1-0; 2017: 1-0
v Sock – overall: 3-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2017: 1-0

It’s been some season for Federer, who arrives having lost only four matches and none since US Open. His indoor record is excellent and he’s won at the O2 twice in the past. The court is quicker than it was in 2010 and 2011 too and as Alex Zverev pointed out on Friday, “the way he was playing on the faster surfaces was amazing”. One thing you could say is that he has arguably been given the toughest group draw possible but then again he is 12-3 against his fellow Becker Group members. Clearly the man to beat; the only question is do you back him at odds-on in this company?

Alex Zverev

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 8/1; To win group: 5/1

2017 win-loss: 54-20 (5 titles – Montpellier, Munich, Rome, Washington, Montreal)

Recent form: Paris L32, Vienna QF, Shanghai L16, Beijing SF, Shenzhen QF

Tournament record: Debut

Record v group opponents:

V Federer - overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-1
v Cilic – overall: 3-1; indoor hard 1-0; 2017: 1-0
v Sock – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-0

Zverev is the real breakthrough player of the season, having claimed two Masters titles as he rose to world number three. His record in best-of-five tennis still leaves a lot to be desired but he’s shown he can live with the very best in best-of-three. It’s been a disappointing autumn for Sascha though – only once has he been past the last eight of any event since the US Open. That’s certainly a suggestion that the 20-year-old is feeling it after plenty of matches earlier in the year.

Marin Cilic

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 11/1; To win group: 6/1

2017 win-loss: 44-19 (1 – Istanbul)

Recent form: Paris QF, Basel SF, Shanghai SF, Tokyo SF

Tournament record: 1-5 – 16 RR, 14 RR

Record v group opponents:

v Federer – overall: 1-7; indoor hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-1
V Zverev - overall: 1-3; indoor hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-1
v Sock – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Cilic has a losing record against all three group opponents but conditions here should suit his big-serving game. On Friday, he spoke of the extra confidence he has gained in the past six months and also of the fact he will face two debutants here in Zverev and Sock, saying that could work to his advantage. I’d tend to agree. Cilic has been very consistent this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him emerge from this group, probably behind Federer.

Jack Sock

Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 22/1; To win group: 11/1

2017 win-loss: 36-19 (3 titles – Auckland, Delray Beach, Paris)

Recent form: Paris W, Basel QF, Stockholm QF, Shanghai L64, Beijing L32,

Tournament record: Debut

Record v group opponents:

V Federer - overall: 0-3; indoor hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-1
v Zverev overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 1-0; 2017: 0-0
v Cilic - overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Sock arrived in Paris two weeks ago unaware he had any chance of qualifying for this event but by winning the title there, he did just that. That was his third title of the season but it is significant that during those events he has beaten just one top-20-ranked player (Lucas Pouille in Paris). He is 2-4 against the top 10 this year. Sock is certainly playing better than a few months ago – he lost five in a row either side of the US Open – but asking him to win multiple matches in a field of this quality may be a bit too much.

Verdict

Federer has been a class above all bar Nadal this season and even then when the pair have met, the Swiss has won every time. He’s got the experience, loves playing indoors and is a worthy favourite.

The big-hitters among you will be happy to take an odds-on price but a way of potentially boosting it is to take the 7/1 on offer about Federer winning without losing a set, something he did at Wimbledon. That’s an enhanced price but I’d still be happy taking the ‘normal’ 5/1.

My outsider for the title is Grigor Dimitrov, who has been playing well, reaching the Stockholm final recently, and looks to have landed in a good group. With doubts over Nadal’s fitness, not to mention his poor record here, the Bulgarian has a decent chance of winning it, never mind making the semis. With Federer likely to win the opposing group, that may be needed.

At 12/1, he looks worthy of an each-way punt, even with only a third of the odds being offered for a spot in the final.

Recommended bets

• 1pt Roger Federer to win the title without losing a set at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
• 1pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov to win the title at 12/1 (1/3 1,2, General)

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Posted at 1825 GMT on 10/11/17.