Fresh from a 12/1 ATP Finals winner, our tennis tipster Andy Schooler says Belgium can spring the upset in this weekend's Davis Cup final in France.
It has been a season of many surprises and Belgium can bring the curtain down on it by producing another in the Davis Cup final.
The Belgians have never won the trophy and head to Lille to take on France as considerable outsiders.
But at 3/1 they have to be the bet against a home team carrying plenty of mental baggage. And that’s just one of several good reasons to take on the 2/7 favourites ahead of Friday's start.
France have not lifted the Davis Cup since 2001 with their current crop of stars widely regarded as a lost generation, one that had once promised so much.
The depth France has had over the past decade has been considerable yet that have lacked the true star capable of dragging the team over the winning line, just as Andy Murray did with Great Britain in 2015.
For the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, both now into their 30s, this looks like it could be their last chance to get their hands of the famous ‘salad bowl’ trophy.
That brings with it pressure, something the French have traditionally not dealt with particularly well. And with home advantage and the majority of a 27,000 crowd cheering them on, it will be felt this weekend.
Belgium certainly have the form player in the shape of David Goffin.
He made the final of the ATP Finals only last week after beating both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in London.
He came away saying he had "improved mentally" as a player over the course of the week and he really wasn’t very far away from winning the final.
If he continues in that vain on what is expected to be a similar surface, Goffin can win both of his singles matches here.
That would leave the visitors requiring one more point but the doubters need to realise this is not a one-man team.
Steve Darcis may be well below the other singles players on display in terms of ranking but he’s stepped up to the plate on numerous occasions in this competition in the past.
He’s won the fifth rubber in two semi-finals before, this year keeping his cool to beat Jordan Thompson in convincing fashion. Earlier in the campaign he beat current world number four Alex Zverev and Philipp Kohlschreiber as the Belgians (minus Goffin) shocked Germany.
Overall he holds a 22-9 singles record in Davis Cup play and if it comes down to Darcis and Lucas Pouille in the final rubber – the Frenchman having limited experience having played just five rubbers, including a semi-final loss to Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic – you would give Darcis every chance.
It was certainly interesting to hear the thoughts of Marin Cilic in London last week when he expressed surprise over France’s choice of an indoor hardcourt for the tie.
He said: "I think it might go in a nice direction for the Belgium guys. Even though Steve has been playing really well on clay, I think he can play a little bit better on hardcourts.
"Obviously France is big favourite to win, but I wouldn't rule out Belgium at all."
It may not come down to that final rubber though.
I wouldn’t be massively surprised for Belgium to wrap this up in four rubbers.
Their doubles team of Ruben Bemelmans and Joris de Loore seems to be being underestimated, especially now the French do not have a specialist pairing in their line-up.
Having beaten a fine doubles partnership in Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares last season and the Zverev brothers earlier this, Bemelmans and De Loore look like they can be trusted, ensuring Goffin can focus solely on singles.
Their only Davis Cup defeat came against Italy in this year’s quarter-finals and that was 7-6 in the fifth.
Admittedly, De Loore has not played of late due to an injury issue so that’s something of a concern but France captain Yannick Noah has also taken a gamble by leaving out Nicolas Mahut – Pierre Hugues Herbert’s regular partner on tour - and choosing Richard Gasquet instead.
Gasquet gives Noah more singles options but he has never played doubles with Herbert, who was last seen limping away from London with a back problem.
Of course, Noah could yet play Tsonga in doubles – he holds a 6-1 record in this competition in the format – but that would be risky with an important clash with Goffin to come in the first of the reverse singles on Sunday.
Belgium have been underestimated all the way though this season’s competition and having already seen off Germany, Italy and Australia I simply can’t have them as 3/1 shots here. The price is widely available.
There’s plenty in their favour and with so much pressure on the hosts I’m happy to back them to spring the upset.
Where to watch: BBC Online
Posted at 1325 GMT on 23/11/17.
Recommended bets
2pts Belgium to beat France at 3/1
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