Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP Tour action which includes the cinch Championships on the grasscourts of the Queen’s Club.
Tennis betting tips: cinch Championships & Noventi Open
2pts Marin Cilic to win the cinch Championships at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Feliciano Lopez in the cinch Championships at 20/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Alexander Bublik in the cinch Championships at 22/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Roger Federer to win the Noventi Open at 5/1 (general)
0.5pt e.w. Jordan Thompson in the Noventi Open at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
cinch Championships
- Queen’s Club, London, England (outdoor grass)
Just three of the world’s top 20 head to the pristine courts of the Queen’s Club this week as the grasscourt season really kicks into gear.
For a tournament with such a rich history, it’s a rather underwhelming field if we’re honest – its rival event in Halle has eight seeds in the top 15 (see below) – but perhaps that opens up the chance of a surprise winner or finalist.
Organisers do at least get Andy Murray’s presence – the five-time champion is due to play his first match since early March.
However, after more than three months out and with no top-50 wins since September, I think you’d be crazy to back him this week at 12/1.
Murray could face top seed and title favourite Matteo Berrettini in round two.
The Italian has certainly been playing well of late, rewarding followers of this column by reaching the Madrid final and then making the last eight at Roland Garros where he took a set off Novak Djokovic.
Unlike many of the current younger generation, Berrettini has proved he can play on grass – he was the champion in Stuttgart in 2019 and also made the semis in Halle that year.
It’s worth remembering at this point that no matches were played on grass in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
His sledgehammer serve should stand him in good stead here where matches can be won and lost in a handful of key points but 9/2 is short enough for me.
Another Briton Dan Evans (14/1) knows how to play on grass with his strong slice and decent volleying skills but he’s got an awkward opener against Alexei Popyrin, plus a poor record at Queen’s.
He’s lost his last four matches here and only once has he claimed back-to-back wins at the venue – and that was in 2013.
Preference in the top half therefore goes to MARIN CILIC, another strong grasscourter and one with great course form.
The Croat is a two-time winner at Queen’s, most recently in 2018, while he’s also lost in two finals.
It appeared the 2017 Wimbledon runner-up’s best days were behind him but he’s looked rejuvenated in recent weeks.
He caught my eye when playing well in Estoril where he made the semis and he used that claycourt form to give Roger Federer a stern test at the French Open, losing a third-set tie-break before going down in four sets.
Those were decent signs for Cilic heading onto the grass and he immediately won the title in Stuttgart, not dropping a set, serving 61 aces and losing serve only twice in his in five matches. In three of them he did not lose a single point behind his first serve.
He’s clearly in good nick and due to the ease of his win shouldn’t be over-tired heading to a venue where he’s been handed a decent draw.
Cilic is no longer ranked high enough to be seeded but the seeds in his section will hardly strike fear into him – Alex de Minaur and Fabio Fognini.
A few weeks ago I’d have had major concerns about backing Cilic at 8/1– and I expect some may still be put off – but things look to be falling into place for the Croat.
This is his time of year and he may well be able to land a third Queen’s title.
The real value looks to lie in the bottom half of the draw, however, where many of the big names have big question marks hanging over them.
Denis Shapovalov is the man seeded to get to the final. However, the Canadian is yet to win back-to-back matches on grass at tour level and looks too short at 10/1.
The bookies have Jannik Sinner down to reach the final but his track record on grass is pretty much non-existent.
He’s yet to win a single tour-level match on this surface and has only two victories in total as a professional – both came against players outside the top 100. Having not played often at junior level, his experience on grass is very limited.
Given he’s only 19 and the entire 2020 grasscourt season was cancelled, there is a reason for that.
But anyone backing the Italian at 7/1 this week is taking a leap of faith that he’s able to transfer his undoubted ability to the grass.
And Aslan Karatsev, the fifth seed, has never played a tour match on grass. Indeed his last grasscourt match at any level was back in 2015.
He’s hardly well prepared either having been playing on the clay of Roland Garros as recently as Thursday in the mixed doubles final.
The other seed in this section, Lorenzo Sonego, does hold decent claims at 18/1.
He was the champion on the grass of Antalya in 2019 and is another who uses a strong first serve well on this surface.
However, he’s in the same quarter as FELICIANO LOPEZ, who I can’t resist backing at 20/1.
The defending champion, who also won here in 2017 and made the 2014 final, comes alive at this time of year and simply loves Queen’s.
His lefty serve which finds great angles and stays low on the grass has been a huge weapon here in recent years and the veteran is a Spaniard who can really volley.
The 39-year-old is already bedded in on the grass having ventured to Stuttgart where he lost to Shapovalov in three sets.
It usually plays faster here than in Germany which will suit Lopez so 20/1 quotes look worth taking.
I’ll also take ALEXANDER BUBLIK in the bottom half at 22/1.
The Kazakh is in the third quarter, along with Sinner and Karatsev, but unlike his higher-ranked contemporaries, Bublik has shown he can play on grass.
He reached the final in Newport in 2019, losing that match to John Isner.
Bublik has a great first serve which will win him cheap points this week – he’s produced the most aces on the ATP Tour so far in 2021.
Having also enjoyed good results on some of the faster hardcourt surfaces around the world – think Chengdu and Marseille – I’m surprised he’s up at 22/1.
Yes, he’s temperamental and there’s a chance we hear him ranting and raving about the grass if things do go wrong, but at that price I’m quite happy to take a chance on Bublik.
Noventi Open
- Halle, Germany (outdoor grass)
Five of the world’s top 10 start their grasscourt campaign in Halle this week.
While he may be the lowest ranked of that quintet, there’s little doubting that ROGER FEDERER is the main draw card.
He’s won this title 10 times (and played in three other finals) so there’s something about his price of 5/1 I’m finding hard to ignore.
Yes, I know he’s played very little in the past 18 months but I saw enough good things in his displays at the French Open to suggest he’s ready to hit the ground running.
He’s long stated that his comeback from knee surgery at the age of 39 was all about Wimbledon and his withdrawal after three rounds in Paris only served to underline that.
In terms of that goal, the serious business starts this week.
The grass is his domain – there’s probably no player on the tour better suited to this surface than the Swiss.
Focus will be total and he’ll certainly be aiming to win this title and get five matches under his belt prior to heading to south-west London.
Of course, it won’t be easy in a field of this quality and the draw hasn’t been particularly kind.
He’ll start against qualifier Ilya Ivashka with Stuttgart runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime potentially following.
Top seed Daniil Medvedev, Alex Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are his seeded foes (in that order) in the latter rounds.
I understand I won’t convince everyone to back him at the price but I’ll try a small play at 5/1.
The bottom half looks to have good potential for a long-odds finalist.
At time of writing, Tsitsipas was still in the draw despite his run to the French Open final – and the subsequent disappointment of being two sets up on Novak Djokovic (an agonising near miss for this column, which tipped him at 28/5).
It’s hard to see the 6/1 shot being brilliant mentally for his Wednesday start, if indeed he shows up at all.
Andrey Rublev is the other high seed in this section but he’s only ever won back-to-back matches on grass once in his career. He looks short enough at 7/1.
Instead I’ll give JORDAN THOMPSON another go at a big price.
I tipped him up Stuttgart last week where he blew a good chance to take down seed Alex de Minaur in what was a key match for the pick.
Thompson led by a set and had three chances to break in the second set before losing in a decider.
Still, he more than showed that he’s very adept on this surface and there aren’t too many in this section you can say that about.
At 66/1, I’ll happily try a small-stakes p
Published at 1730 BST on 13/06/21
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