Australian Open tips: Preview and picks for tennis Grand Slam in Melbourne

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open

1pt e.w. Madison Keys for the title at 50/1 (Betfred 1/2 1,2)

0.5pt e.w. Daria Kasatkina for the title at 66/1 (Unibet, BetUK)

1pt Danielle Collins to win the first quarter at 10/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Australian Open

• Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

Ash Barty (remember her?) may have justified favouritism by winning last year’s Australian Open but this is a tournament which has a long history of surprises.

Its position in the calendar means even the busiest player has struggled for a lot of matchplay before arriving in Melbourne. Some come in completely cold on that front.

While the dominance of the ‘Big Four’ rather blunted the shock threat on the men’s side over the past 20 years, there have still been upsets in the women’s singles.

Sofia Kenin, Angie Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki have all won at decent prices in the last decade, while there have also been numerous big-odds finalists – think Danielle Collins last year, Jen Brady and Dominka Cibulkova.

It’s never easy picking out such a player (although this column did tip up Brady each way in 2021) but it certainly seems worth having a go.

First up, I’m surprised to see MADISON KEYS available at 50/1.

She was our long shot on these pages 12 months ago when she made it all the way to the semis before losing to Barty.

Keys’ odds are half what they were a year ago but she’s also much higher ranked in 10th and so it seems rather odd that she can be backed at 50s.

There’s lots to like about the American’s chances.

• CLICK HERE to back Keys with Sky Bet

Clearly she has enjoyed playing on the Melbourne Park courts in the past – as well as last year’s effort she made the last four in 2015 and the last eight in 2018.

The change to Greenset courts in 2020 sped things up too which is great for the Keys game which is based on a big serve and a powerful forehand. As she showed in 2022, she’s the type of player who is capable of hitting most off the court when her game is flowing.

Recent form is also strong.

Keys began the season by helping the USA lift the United Cup, winning all five of her matches and losing just one set.

Admittedly she was playing as her team’s number two singles player and therefore all of her opponents were ranked lower, but it was still a good start to the year and one which sets her up nicely for Melbourne.

Any player will tell you they want to peak for the big events so Keys will be happy she’s playing well and confident there’s more to come when the level of opposition rises.

Keys has never been the most consistent player, which perhaps helps to explain her price, but a look back to the second half of last season shows she was a semi-finalist at another fairly quick venue, Cincinnati, where world number one Iga Swiatek was among her victims.

Daria Kasatkina, a current member of the top 10, was later beaten in San Diego.

Essentially Keys is very capable on a decent-paced hardcourt and the fact that she’s already been to a Grand Slam final (at the 2017 US Open) ticks another box.

All in all, 50/1 about her chances looks too big.

Keys is in the second quarter of the draw which features several players which were certainly on my shortlist.

I was close to backing Jessica Pegula but the world number three, a quarter-finalist here in each of the last two years, received the rough end of the stick on Thursday.

She could meet fellow American Amanda Anisimova in round three – a player I picked out for a good year in my pre-season look at 2023.

And the winner of that one could well face either Barbora Krejcikova or Petra Kvitova, two more players I had fancied before they were shoe-horned into this devilishly difficult section of the draw.

I can’t pick the winner of that 16th with any certainly now and I am happy to leave it alone in the hope they drag each other into the trenches and are exhausted ahead of a quarter-final meeting with Keys.

This half is also that of top seed and firm favourite Iga Swiatek.

Following Barty’s surprise retirement in March, Swiatek picked up the baton and ran with it. Actually, that probably should be ran away with it.

She dominated the rest of the year, winning at Roland Garros and the US Open and finishing as world number one by a country mile.

But while Swiatek did win in New York last summer, she can be vulnerable in faster conditions – her natural domain is the clay – and that was seen at the United Cup when she was crushed 6-2 6-2 by Pegula, a match which ended with the Pole in tears.

She duly withdrew from her scheduled appearance in Adelaide, citing a shoulder injury, and while that could easily be dismissed as precautionary, her quote after her loss to Pegula that “physically and mentally I wasn't able to kind of show up” suggested everything is not right.

Perhaps I’m reading too much into it all but regardless of her physical condition, I’m struggling to get excited by quotes of 9/4.

In that first quarter, I’m happy to take her on and will do so in the shape of DANIELLE COLLINS.

• CLICK HERE to back Collins with Sky Bet

Last year’s runner-up also made the semis here in 2019 and the feisty American should be relishing her return.

Possessing an excellent backhand, Collins is a real competitor who will be aggressive when given the opportunity and is sort of player who could trouble Swiatek, should they meet in the last 16. Indeed, she did beat her at this very tournament 12 months ago.

It’s been a mixed bag from Collins so far in 2023, although there are plenty of decent signs.

Wins over Karolina Pliskova and Jil Teichmann have been offset by defeats to Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina and Veronika Kudermetova, although both were three-set losses which suggested Collins isn’t too far away right now. She missed match points in the latter.

33/1 quotes don’t appeal as much as Keys at 50/1 in the outright market so I’ll instead go with the 10/1 that she’s able to come through Swiatek’s quarter and make her third semi-final in five main-draw appearances at the event.

It also makes sense to pick someone of the other side of the draw, one which includes second favourite Aryna Sabalenka, second seed Ons Jabeur and WTA Finals champion Caroline Garcia.

Arguments can be made for all three but I’m not convinced.

I’ve long said Sabalenka has the potential to win one of these events but it’s much more likely that her big-hitting game produces too many errors at some point during the seven rounds of a Slam. I can’t be backing her at a single-figure price here.

Jabeur remains without any tour-level title on a hardcourt and you also wonder if any scars have been left from defeats in the last two Grand Slam finals. Certainly it seemed a big chance was missed at Wimbledon.

As for Garcia, her Australian Open record is somewhat off-putting – in 11 previous visits, she’s made the last 16 only once.

Instead I’ll take a chance on DARIA KASATKINA.

• CLICK HERE to back Kasatkina with Sky Bet

She caught the eye with a couple of impressive wins in Adelaide this week, defeating the aforementioned Krejcikova and Kvitova.

Having also benefitted from injury withdrawals – ensuring she’s not overplayed coming to Melbourne – the Russian is due to face Belinda Bencic in the final on Saturday.

While her best Grand Slam result has come on the clay of Roland Garros (she made the semis last year), Kasatkina can certainly play on a hardcourt.

She’s a former Indian Wells finalist, while last summer she won titles in San Jose and Granby prior to the US Open.

Perhaps she had too much tennis in her legs in New York (lost in the first round) but as already explained, that shouldn’t be a problem here.

It would be nice to see a better Melbourne record on her CV but it’s also worth noting that her last three defeats here have come at the hands of Swiatek, Sabalenka and Keys. Hardly disastrous.

Frankly, I’m happier to focus on how she’s played in the past six months which is pretty well.

The world number eight, who is in Garcia’s quarter of the draw, can be backed at a best price of 80/1 for the title and that looks large.

Click the image for men's outright preview

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Posted at 1200 GMT on 13/01/23

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