After three winning tips on Wednesday, Scott Ferguson previews day four of the Australian Open.
Recommended bets
2pts First set correct score groups - Halep 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at 11/10
1pt Pliskova to beat Siegemund 2-1 at 4/1
1pt Ymer v Khachanov four sets at 7/4
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Harriet Dart v Simona Halep
Britain's Harriet Dart opened her account at the Australian Open by winning a nail-biter against Misaki Doi, overcoming a slow start to win in a third set tie-breaker.
That should exorcise any demons recalling her debut last year when she was double-bagelled by Maria Sharapova.
Now she faces the challenge of playing on centre court against a big seed, something she will have experienced last year at Wimbledon when reaching the third round.
The plucky Brit has the benefit of four matches under her belt now after coming through qualifying but it is a huge step up from opponents ranked 194, 123, 150 and 82, to the dual Grand Slam-winning Simona Halep.
Dart's weakness at this level is power - it gets her through at ITF level but a second serve averaging 70mph will just get taken apart by one of the best returners in the women's game.
Halep defeated Jennifer Brady in round one, a top 50 player with a big forehand who shocked Ash Barty in Brisbane earlier this month. That match wa not without a scare though, with Halep falling and hurting her right wrist in the opening set.
After a lengthy medical time out at 6-5, she regrouped and won seven of the next eight games to close out the contest with minimal fuss.
The Darren Cahill-coached Romanian was ruthless on break points, converting five out of eight chances and kept her first serve high at 78%, pinning Brady back to the baseline on return, neutralising her biggest weapon.
Unless the wrist injury has flared up in the 48hrs since her last match, Halep should proceed without much fuss. Dart will scrap away but against the elite players with consistent rather than erratic power, they will just hit through her. Best opportunity to cash in looks to be in a swift first set.
Best bet: First set correct score groups - Halep 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at 11/10
Laura Siegemund v Karolina Pliskova
Two players in glorious form with the German only having lost this year to Serena Williams at the top of her game in Auckland, and the Czech being undefeated in 2020.
Siegemund reversed a 0-5 record against an admittedly rusty Coco Vandeweghe in the first round, winning in straight sets.
Despite conceding 15mph on average serve speeds, she won an impressive 63% of points on second serve - the very time most opponents seek to drill the return for winners.
The speed differential will be repeated against Pliskova as the hard-hitting Czech seeks to overpower her opponents from the start.
The number two seed defeated former top 10 player Kristina Mladenovic in straight sets, racing through the first set in no time before a tighter encounter in the second.
They have met once before, with Siegemund winning on clay back in 2017, a tournament she went on and won. Her variation and movement should make life difficult for the German, perhaps enough to take into a deciding set.
Best bet: 1pt Karolina Pliskova to win 2-1 at 4/1
Mikael Ymer v Karen Khachanov
In the evening session on Court 3, young Swede Mikael Ymer takes on the power-hitting Russian Karen Khachanov in a contrast of styles.
Ymer loves to wear down his opponents, blunting their pace and increasing their frustration before their game plan falls apart. The Russian loves to wind up on his forehand and blast opponents off the court.
Wednesday introduced gusty winds to the complex Melbourne weather patterns and Thursday night is expected to be similar. Court 3 is the most exposed of the show courts and gusty winds up to 35km/h (22mph) might take a while for Khachanov to adjust to - assuming the programme has not been substantially delayed by forecast rain during the day.
Ymer might be able to surprise early and establish a lead before the experience of Khachanov kicks in. He's a talented kid, part of last's year ATP NextGen group, but I do not think he's quite up this level yet.
Rather than flirt with the total games line around 36, I'll take an interest the match going four sets at 7/4.
Best bet: Ymer v Khachanov four sets at 7/4
